ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[MGC]

Looks like the SAL is eating 99L for dinner this afternoon. Unless there is a robust rebound in convection 99L is likely doomed.....MGC

[RL3AO]

Convection almost always diminishes during the evening. If it still looks like that by morning, then you can call it dead.

[Gustywind]

Convection almost always diminishes during the evening. If it still looks like that by morning, then you can call it dead.

A bit premature to say that?No? Let's wait and see...

[Dean4Storms]

I think it struggles with the dry air but overcomes it in a day or so as it pulls in ITCZ moisture.

[Recurve]

Hmmm. We shall see.
I don't expect the calm to last too much longer. The suspense is almost worse than facing something coming your way.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,this is not dead by any means.You will see why I say that when you look at the recent Q Pass.It only needs a good burst of convection to get going because the circulation is there.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah this is so far from dead..

[Cookie]

Im glad its only hurricanes we are calling dead and not real people.

[Aric Dunn]

well at least there is a clear circulation now (latest microwave).. lol and there is some deeper convection starting to fire now ..



and close up of the latest quickscat from a couple hours ago..

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps,this is not dead by any means.You will see why I say that when you look at the recent Q Pass.It only needs a good burst of convection to get going because the circulation is there.

Absolutely, a juicy and solid amount to spin Cycloneye. Que le den vitamina!

[Gustywind]

yeah this is so far from dead..

Yeah Invest 99L is far away from that he's a WARRIOR :D

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

668
ABNT20 KNHC 102342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 7N TO 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS...
HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N45W IS BRINGING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE THUS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
LAYERED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 23W-30W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 110044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090811 0000 090811 1200 090812 0000 090812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 26.8W 15.6N 29.0W 16.2N 31.2W 16.6N 34.1W
BAMD 14.4N 26.8W 15.2N 28.2W 15.9N 29.7W 16.6N 31.9W
BAMM 14.4N 26.8W 15.5N 28.4W 16.4N 30.2W 17.2N 32.5W
LBAR 14.4N 26.8W 15.0N 28.6W 16.1N 30.7W 17.0N 33.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090813 0000 090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 37.1W 18.6N 43.7W 20.0N 50.4W 21.9N 57.0W
BAMD 17.3N 34.4W 19.4N 39.7W 22.4N 42.8W 24.8N 42.4W
BAMM 18.1N 35.2W 20.2N 40.6W 22.6N 44.6W 24.3N 46.8W
LBAR 18.2N 35.4W 21.0N 39.9W 24.9N 42.1W 29.7N 40.8W
SHIP 32KTS 35KTS 26KTS 16KTS
DSHP 32KTS 35KTS 26KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 26.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 24.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 23.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Gustywind]

WHXX01 KWBC 110044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090811 0000 090811 1200 090812 0000 090812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 26.8W 15.6N 29.0W 16.2N 31.2W 16.6N 34.1W
BAMD 14.4N 26.8W 15.2N 28.2W 15.9N 29.7W 16.6N 31.9W
BAMM 14.4N 26.8W 15.5N 28.4W 16.4N 30.2W 17.2N 32.5W
LBAR 14.4N 26.8W 15.0N 28.6W 16.1N 30.7W 17.0N 33.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090813 0000 090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 37.1W 18.6N 43.7W 20.0N 50.4W 21.9N 57.0W
BAMD 17.3N 34.4W 19.4N 39.7W 22.4N 42.8W 24.8N 42.4W
BAMM 18.1N 35.2W 20.2N 40.6W 22.6N 44.6W 24.3N 46.8W
LBAR 18.2N 35.4W 21.0N 39.9W 24.9N 42.1W 29.7N 40.8W
SHIP 32KTS 35KTS 26KTS 16KTS
DSHP 32KTS 35KTS 26KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 26.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 24.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 23.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Once again straight west slight wsw component...

[HURAKAN]

Some convection developing

[cycloneye]

For now its not climbing in latitud.In fact it decended a little.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/2345 UTC 14.1N 26.7W T1.0/1.5 99L

10/1745 UTC 14.4N 25.8W T1.0/1.5 99L
10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
10/0545 UTC 14.2N 23.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/2345 UTC 14.2N 22.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1745 UTC 14.2N 22.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1330 UTC 14.2N 21.8W T1.5/1.5 99L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[brunota2003]

For now its not climbing in latitud.In fact it decended a little.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/2345 UTC 14.1N 26.7W T1.0/1.5 99L

10/1745 UTC 14.4N 25.8W T1.0/1.5 99L
10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
10/0545 UTC 14.2N 23.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/2345 UTC 14.2N 22.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1745 UTC 14.2N 22.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1330 UTC 14.2N 21.8W T1.5/1.5 99L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

I would hate to disagree, but it did indeed climb.

09/1330 14.2 N
10/1745 14.4 N

You looked at it upside down




I stand corrected myself...I didn't see the last one (14.1 N) since it was wayyyy up in the stratosphere

[cycloneye]

For now its not climbing in latitud.In fact it decended a little.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/2345 UTC 14.1N 26.7W T1.0/1.5 99L

10/1745 UTC 14.4N 25.8W T1.0/1.5 99L
10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
10/0545 UTC 14.2N 23.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/2345 UTC 14.2N 22.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1745 UTC 14.2N 22.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1330 UTC 14.2N 21.8W T1.5/1.5 99L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

I would hate to disagree, but it did indeed climb.

09/1330 14.2 N
10/1745 14.4 N

You looked at it upside down

The first one at the top is the most recent one (14.1N) and I separated it from the rest of the positions to highlight it.

[brunota2003]

.........

The first one at the top is the most recent one and I separated it from the rest of the positions to highlight it.

Yes, I saw it after relooking I'm tired and sunburnt...and...tired and the Atlantic is quiet so far (thankfully)