ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[The Eye Wall]

Keep in mind that the burst of convection is impressive, but this is still a very poorly organized system. Almost all the convection is east of the 57.3 degrees W. I understand that the hurricane center has plotted the center at 17.2 N and 57.3 W. But I'm beginning to wonder if it is not reforming near where I have made a T.S. symbol. Notice the little hook in the convection near that symbol. The big black dot is the official center as given by the NHC.

Also, looking at the water vapor, there is dry air to the NW of this system. I don't foresee R.I. at this time. But that's just my opinion.

[Nimbus]

Most of these models don't show much in the way of steering effects. Its almost extrapolated motion up to 25 N. Maybe that means the models are keeping Erika moving WNW with the high which would mean a lower shear environment?

[george_r_1961]

:lol: Good one !

Yes it is. Sure gave me a laugh


The more I look at the pattern and the models the more I think an EC threat is likely. Especially the Carolinas up into Virginia.

[lonelymike]

Which of these models use the Good for poop as the basis for the synoptic background programming? I wonder if this is why the models are acting so screwy?

[Aric Dunn]

pretty evident .. in the latest quicscat.

[Lurker]

Keep in mind that the burst of convection is impressive, but this is still a very poorly organized system. Almost all the convection is east of the 57.3 degrees W. I understand that the hurricane center has plotted the center at 17.2 N and 57.3 W. But I'm beginning to wonder if it is not reforming near where I have made a T.S. symbol. Notice the little hook in the convection near that symbol. The big black dot is the official center as given by the NHC.

Also, looking at the water vapor, there is dry air to the NW of this system. I don't foresee R.I. at this time. But that's just my opinion.

What makes you think that?

[The Eye Wall]

After looking at the Quikskat above, I retract my statement. I have not seen it today. Thanks for that.

[kurtpage]

Keep in mind that the burst of convection is impressive, but this is still a very poorly organized system. Almost all the convection is east of the 57.3 degrees W. I understand that the hurricane center has plotted the center at 17.2 N and 57.3 W. But I'm beginning to wonder if it is not reforming near where I have made a T.S. symbol. Notice the little hook in the convection near that symbol. The big black dot is the official center as given by the NHC.

Also, looking at the water vapor, there is dry air to the NW of this system. I don't foresee R.I. at this time. But that's just my opinion.

I don't see that at all...

[HURAKAN]

The Eye Wall, you may need to visit the RECON thread.

[MWatkins]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

It makes all the waiting and the negative Nancy comments over the last few days so worth while. Now, on to round two....

That is quite a blow up. But you've gotta admit this thing has been as fickle as they come over the last 5-6 days. It kept toying with us with a big blow up, then itd whimp out. Even Derek Orrt was saying this morning that the fat lady was about to sing when he noted that it had just spit out 4 outflow boundaries. So you can't convince me that you so sure this intensification would happen just 12 hours ago. By the way, since Erica has been so unpredictable who's to say she won't be getting sheared apart and significantly diminish tomorrow?

First, it has always been my opinion that the presence of outflow boundaries is a hugely overated thing when it comes to desconstructing intensification possibilities. Steve Lyons on TWC talked about them all the time when I watched him like 10 years ago, but to be quite honest I think more get identified because of improved satellite resolution.

In fact, while they do indicate clouds moving away from a system, we've seen them proceed organization (see for example, today).

It's hard for something to produce deep convection for this long, get an established LLC going and suddenly dissipate.

The trend in the models is stronger. Some of that might be because they have an actual TC to initialize, but still the guidance suggests that Erika is going to be hanging around for a while. It is much deeper than Ana ever was for example.

Looking forward to getting a full data set into the 0Z models...

MW

[lonelymike]

Keep in mind that the burst of convection is impressive, but this is still a very poorly organized system. Almost all the convection is east of the 57.3 degrees W. I understand that the hurricane center has plotted the center at 17.2 N and 57.3 W. But I'm beginning to wonder if it is not reforming near where I have made a T.S. symbol. Notice the little hook in the convection near that symbol. The big black dot is the official center as given by the NHC.

Also, looking at the water vapor, there is dry air to the NW of this system. I don't foresee R.I. at this time. But that's just my opinion.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing and your opinion is always welcome

[Windtalker1]

pretty evident .. in the latest quicscat.

If this is correct, then the system is a bit more west and will skirt the northern islands on her WNW movement. I guess by morning you will see a shift more west with the models.

[UpTheCreek]

Been enjoying your graphics for years! I gotta ask, do you have them hanging all over in your home?

[The Eye Wall]

Again, a small oversight on my part. I retract my statement after looking at the Quikscat. Thanks for the correction.

[HURAKAN]

Been enjoying your graphics for years! I gotta ask, do you have them hanging all over in your home?

No, saved somewhere in my two photobucket accounts! It's just Powerpoint 2007 and a little imagination!!!

[Windtalker1]

pretty evident .. in the latest quicscat.

If this is correct, then the system is a bit more west and will skirt the northern islands on her WNW movement. I guess by morning you will see a shift more west with the models.

[cycloneye]

Aric,that is south of the 8 PM advisory position of 17.2N right?

[Swimdude]

I said long ago just after it came off Africa that I had a feeling about this one for the NE Carib Islands and the CONUS!

Someone gets a cookie! Munch Munch

[Stormcenter]

You shouldn't even show the GFS it loses Erika altogether.
Anway there is pretty good model consensus. IMO

[OURAGAN]

May be 16,5N, it's why this cloud mass is in front of Guadeloupe, my island.