ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,that is south of the 8 PM advisory position of 17.2N right?

slightly . yes.. but its close enough and is in agreement..

it has no reason to be heading 300 like they said it was earlier... the motion over the last 24 hours has been west to slightly north of west .. average 280 to 290.

the islands will probably have it pass over them or skirt them by about 50 to hundred miles..

the circ is having some problems still as the last microwave showed in the nw side of the convection but is much much closer to the deep convection than earlier..

[Evil Jeremy]

Aric,that is south of the 8 PM advisory position of 17.2N right?

From my untrained eye, it looks both south and west of the 8PM position.

[OURAGAN]

i agree

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,that is south of the 8 PM advisory position of 17.2N right?

From my untrained eye, it looks both south and west of the 8PM position.

we are talking less than 50 miles different if that..

the last vortex was 17.2N 57.1W

and that image is centered at 16.8N 57.5W so its very close.. and is reasonable.

[wxman57]

QuikSCAT is not a very precise way to measure center location, particularly through heavy convection. Could easily be off by a degree. I remember that it had a hard time finding the center of Katrina when Katrina was a Cat 5 with a big eye.

[tpr1967]

pretty evident .. in the latest quicscat.

If this is correct, then the system is a bit more west and will skirt the northern islands on her WNW movement. I guess by morning you will see a shift more west with the models.

You guys do know that quikscat is from 2201z or 6:01 pm, not presently.

[Derek Ortt]

if you're having trouble with the NHC floaters, use this site

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html Those are up to date

[tpr1967]

I think that was before the relocation near the blow up of convection too.

[Ivanhater]

[tpr1967]

Its not moving very fast is it.

[fasterdisaster]

Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?

[artist]

Wow! What a difference a day makes!

[gatorcane]

Yeah wxman, there was good agreement with Ike as well to turn east of Florida. The trough is not very strong and there is evidence of a ridge building back in after the weakness lifts out, not saying it will happen, but I'm always looking for every scenario

True models and many on this board thought Ike would recurve east of FL and look what happened.

Still so no evidence of a strong enough ridge to steer this into Florida at this time but will always keeps looking to see if something surprises us.

[Brent]

Extremely impressed by all that convection. I am seriously surprised at what this system has done today.

[rrm]

the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?

[OURAGAN]

The center may be moving w /sw erraticly for the last three hours

[Aric Dunn]

Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?

size does not always mean low pressure.

[banksmanforever]

looks like as far south as Barbados will be affected by Erika

[vbhoutex]

Its not moving very fast is it.

It is basically stationary at this time.

[fasterdisaster]

Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?

size does not always mean low pressure.

Sure, but is there a reason in this case why hers is fairly high for 60 mph?