ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dionne]

I don't understand the SST maps.....why all the different info? NOAA SST map shows temps near 80F all the way to 26N in the central GOM.

[deltadog03]

I find it interesting that recon is flying at 400mb level right now on there way to IDA and in there obs there are indicating that the winds are only 23kt at that level. Not too bad right now over the northern gom.

[cycloneye]

OB 6

URNT15 KNHC 081531
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 06 20091108
152330 2805N 08907W 4101 07343 0336 -170 -223 203025 026 999 999 03
152400 2802N 08906W 4097 07352 0337 -174 -223 200026 026 999 999 03
152430 2800N 08905W 4097 07351 0337 -175 -223 201028 028 999 999 03
152500 2758N 08904W 4098 07349 0338 -174 -223 201027 027 999 999 03
152530 2756N 08903W 4098 07348 0337 -170 -223 201027 028 999 999 03
152600 2754N 08902W 4098 07352 0338 -170 -224 201025 026 999 999 03
152630 2752N 08901W 4098 07349 0338 -170 -224 203024 025 999 999 03
152700 2749N 08900W 4060 07415 0339 -172 -224 202025 027 999 999 03
152730 2747N 08859W 3937 07654 0355 -184 -225 208028 029 999 999 03
152800 2745N 08858W 3925 07677 0360 -190 -226 209028 028 999 999 03
152830 2743N 08857W 3923 07679 0359 -190 -227 212029 030 999 999 03
152900 2741N 08856W 3923 07677 0358 -188 -229 207029 030 999 999 03
152930 2739N 08855W 3925 07677 0359 -185 -230 204029 029 999 999 03
153000 2737N 08854W 3926 07675 0359 -185 -232 203028 029 999 999 03
153030 2735N 08852W 3926 07675 0360 -186 -233 202028 028 999 999 03
153100 2732N 08851W 3924 07679 0360 -190 -234 200029 030 999 999 03
153130 2730N 08850W 3927 07671 0360 -190 -235 196029 030 999 999 03
153200 2728N 08849W 3926 07677 0361 -189 -235 195029 029 999 999 03
153230 2726N 08848W 3922 07683 0361 -189 -236 195028 029 999 999 03
153300 2724N 08847W 3930 07668 0360 -189 -237 193026 027 999 999 03
$$
;

[Sanibel]

The hurricane was definitely a category 2 last night with surface winds recorded at 89 knots.

[HURAKAN]

[Dean4Storms]

I said a while ago that Ida looks to be strengthening and taking on a more overall organized appearance.

[Thunder44]

The hurricane was definitely a category 2 last night with surface winds recorded at 89 knots.

I wonder what happened with that drosponde. It wasn't mentioned in the NHC discussion.

[One Eye]

This is totally unbelievable! A hurricane watch for the Mississippi Gulf Coast. I do not know of a tropical system affecting our area ever in November.

[cycloneye]

The hurricane was definitely a category 2 last night with surface winds recorded at 89 knots.

I wonder what happened with that drosponde. It wasn't mentioned in the NHC discussion.

There will be changes in the post season report at best track.

[lonelymike]

At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning--and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast--is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen.

Dr. Masters says it all

[attallaman]

Have the models shifted further to the W because my area is now under a cane watch?

[Dionne]

This is totally unbelievable! A hurricane watch for the Mississippi Gulf Coast. I do not know of a tropical system affecting our area ever in November.

Only 4 hurricanes have hit the US (since 1900) in the month of November.....they were all Cat 1 and they all hit Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

dropsondes also catch wind gusts. What was the MBL wind?

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

As has been mentioned, cloud tops warmed briefly but that reversed. Could see a bit of strengthening though this afternoon. Beyond then it's all downhill as wind shear increases and SSTs decrease.

I still don't buy the NHC's eastern hook toward Jacksonville. Models have definitely trended away from the solution of keeping a piece of Ida around to track east or southeast. I think it'll move faster than forecast and transition to ET more quickly, weakening more rapidly than forecast. I'm not sure what'll be left of Ida when it reaches the Gulf Coast Monday night. Squalls may have been stripped away from the center, racing off to the NE in the jet core.

It's not an easy forecast.

[xironman]

Right now on the visible cirrus is spreading back over Cozumel. The shear can't be that much of a factor.

[cycloneye]

OB 7

URNT15 KNHC 081541
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 07 20091108
153330 2721N 08846W 3925 07678 0361 -192 -237 197027 028 999 999 03
153400 2719N 08845W 3923 07678 0359 -190 -237 198027 028 999 999 03
153430 2717N 08844W 3929 07671 0360 -190 -238 192025 026 999 999 03
153500 2715N 08843W 3922 07683 0360 -195 -239 192025 025 999 999 03
153530 2713N 08842W 3926 07674 0360 -195 -239 193025 025 999 999 03
153600 2711N 08841W 3930 07669 0360 -193 -240 191024 025 999 999 03
153630 2708N 08840W 3922 07682 0360 -187 -241 185025 027 999 999 03
153700 2706N 08839W 3925 07676 0359 -185 -242 181026 027 999 999 03
153730 2704N 08838W 3929 07670 0360 -185 -242 179024 026 999 999 03
153800 2702N 08837W 3927 07675 0362 -185 -242 181023 023 999 999 03
153830 2700N 08836W 3923 07682 0362 -186 -241 183024 024 999 999 03
153900 2657N 08835W 3927 07673 0362 -185 -241 183025 026 999 999 03
153930 2655N 08834W 3922 07686 0363 -187 -241 184025 026 999 999 03
154000 2653N 08832W 3928 07673 0362 -188 -242 186023 024 999 999 03
154030 2651N 08831W 3930 07672 0363 -190 -242 185023 024 999 999 03
154100 2649N 08830W 3923 07684 0364 -190 -242 185023 023 999 999 03
154130 2646N 08829W 3926 07678 0364 -190 -242 184024 024 999 999 03
154200 2644N 08828W 3926 07681 0365 -187 -243 184023 023 999 999 03
154230 2642N 08827W 3926 07682 0365 -185 -243 180024 024 999 999 03
154300 2640N 08826W 3925 07682 0365 -184 -244 179023 023 999 999 03

[Gigsley]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Interesting 24hr future prediction here.

[Sanibel]

Interesting Ida is still that little tight-cored system it was down by Nicaragua when it RI'ed. Sort of like it kept its personality.

I think if Ida were going to get strong it would pull that convection band to its SE into better curvature. That band is convection along the ridge border.

That Atlantic ridge has been pouring a cool Atlantic fetch in from the east for several days now. Since Ida is a small core storm it is going to be battling that cooler air with no large buffer to combat it. It makes sense to me that Ida is trading good SST's for less than ideal surroundings and that is why it should maintain. A small system should get affected quicker by the unfavorable conditions it is heading into.

[RNGR]

Just so no one gets confused by the discussion here....the discussion is a general one....there is no forecast that is calling for Ida to have 115 mph winds...either as a hurricane or extratropical system...as she approaches the Gulf Coast and Florida. The current forecast calls for a 50 mph tropical storm transitioning into an equally squally extratropical low pressure late Tuesday. The biggest threats could be from coastal flooding and beach erosion in susceptible areas like the Florida Big Bend.

The probability of hurricane force winds during the next 5 days is under 5% for the entire U.S.

looking at the windfield of Ida per predictions from the models, it looks like they think she will be tropical. the highest winds tightly wrapped around the center. and i would think that a gale of that strength would be nearly impossible this far south. the 93' storm was probably a 1000 year event, though im just guessing at that one. lol

I was speaking of the models not the NHC forecast.