ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[deltadog03]

I think we are about to see another HUGE burst on the W and NW side of the system. I think eventually we will see another repeat of today, where the eastern part dies and we see a huge blow up near the llc and on western quad.

[lrak]

Looks like a circular west moving storm.

[lrak]

Is the LBAR any good? It is showing this thing taking a dive SW?

[otowntiger]

Yeah wxman, there was good agreement with Ike as well to turn east of Florida. The trough is not very strong and there is evidence of a ridge building back in after the weakness lifts out, not saying it will happen, but I'm always looking for every scenario

True models and many on this board thought Ike would recurve east of FL and look what happened.

Still so no evidence of a strong enough ridge to steer this into Florida at this time but will always keeps looking to see if something surprises us.

Yes, because no one saw Erica doing what she did today regarding her intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs initializes it about 50 to 80 miles of the 18Z ...

lets see if that changes anything..

[Evil Jeremy]

00z gfs initializes it about 50 to 80 miles of the 18Z ...

lets see if that changes anything..

50-80 miles... west of the 18z? South? East? North lol?

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs initializes it about 50 to 80 miles of the 18Z ...

lets see if that changes anything..

50-80 miles... west of the 18z? South? East? North lol?

lol east of the 18z sorry

[Sanibel]

I'm a fan of GFDL but I don't trust it under a weak High. You have to learn its weaknesses and this is one of them.

[Bocadude85]

Is the LBAR any good? It is showing this thing taking a dive SW?

Most dont usually pay much attention to the LBAR

[Evil Jeremy]

00z gfs initializes it about 50 to 80 miles of the 18Z ...

lets see if that changes anything..

50-80 miles... west of the 18z? South? East? North lol?

lol east of the 18z sorry

Also, is it 50+ miles east of where the 18z vitalized or where it was at 6 hours in so it would be balanced with the 00z start? Let me know if I am getting annoying lol.

[Aric Dunn]

well right.. the 6 hours forecast from the 18z is off from the 00z initial is what i was saying...


just looked at the 30 hour 00z vs. the 36 hour 18z

the major difference is the heights of the ridge on the east coast of the us. they are slightly stronger for the 00z than the 18z ..

[boca]

At 30 hrs Erika looks like it hasn't moved more than 50 miles from where its at right now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif

[Sanibel]

Excellent upper:

[HURAKAN]

553
URNT15 KNHC 020344
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 01 20090902
033500 1742N 06448W 0141 00000 0128 +260 +204 360000 000 087 000 20
033530 1742N 06448W 0141 00000 0138 +260 +203 360000 000 087 000 23
033600 1742N 06448W 0140 00000 0139 +260 +203 360000 000 999 999 23
033630 1742N 06448W 0141 00000 0139 +260 +202 360000 000 999 999 23
033700 1742N 06447W 0139 00000 0138 +261 +201 360000 000 999 999 23
033730 1742N 06447W 0138 00000 0137 +260 +201 360000 000 999 999 23
033800 1742N 06448W 0137 00000 0137 +260 +200 360000 000 999 999 23
033830 1742N 06448W 0138 00000 0137 +260 +200 360000 000 999 999 23
033900 1742N 06448W 0138 00000 0138 +263 +200 360000 000 999 999 23
033930 1742N 06448W 0135 00002 0137 +265 +200 360000 000 999 999 03
034000 1742N 06448W 0133 00003 0137 +265 +199 360000 000 999 999 03
034030 1742N 06448W 0130 00005 0137 +265 +199 360000 000 999 999 03
034100 1742N 06449W 0127 00008 0136 +265 +199 360000 000 999 999 03
034130 1742N 06449W 0123 00010 0136 +265 +198 360000 000 999 999 03
034200 1742N 06449W 0117 00012 0135 +265 +198 360000 000 999 999 03
034230 1742N 06449W 0122 00012 0136 +265 +198 360000 000 999 999 03
034300 1742N 06449W 0121 00012 0136 +260 +197 360000 000 999 999 03
034330 1742N 06449W 0121 00014 0137 +260 +197 360000 000 999 999 03
034400 1742N 06449W 0121 00012 0136 +262 +197 360000 000 999 999 03
034430 1742N 06449W 0121 00012 0137 +265 +197 360000 000 999 999 03
$$
;

I have to sleep now!

[RL3AO]

I can post for a while.

[Cyclenall]

I have to admit, this is one of the most impressive bursting type tropical storms I have ever seen in the Atlantic basin. Typically this occurs more often in Epac TS's. Something I wouldn't expect in this season...

[Aric Dunn]

gfs out to 60 hours pretty much straight west..

and again ..

its about 50 miles east of the 18z 66 hr forecast position. and has a slightly stronger bremuda high and ridge over eastern us..

[Chigger_Lopez]

I find it amusing how these models for the past several days continue to initialize motion much more NW and this storm just keeps on chugging west or WNW. This has been the only model trend that I have witnessed. So much uncertainty with this one. Yesterday this storm was a dead man walking and look at it now holding its own. All day yesterday, even from the pros, all we heard is that shear would destroy this thing most of yesterday and today. Havent seen it! I am not confident at this point of anything with this girl. I think there is some crow and dunce hats to go around on this one when its all said and done. . . No disrespect to the mets by the way.

[Wx_Warrior]

nearly exact spot @ 60h from the 18z run

[Gustywind]

Huge size is an euphemisma...Erika you can fish if you want!!!!