ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[jinftl]

The NHC Discussion at 10am mentioned the reasoning behind the watch they put out...as of now, it doesn't sound like they will put any more out based on the NWS offices taking over the duty

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE
WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.

I noticed the Hurricane watch only extends to the MS/AL border. Is that supposed to extend east as it gets closer cause landfall is still showing the Pensacola area?

Anybody know? lol

I think the watches go east later today. The LA Grand Isles jut a good distance southward so likely they would go under H Watches first being in the 36hr window.

[PTPatrick]

What part of that did you think said Mobile wasnt surge prone...actually, i said the opposite. I know Western baldwin county is very surge prone. My comment was that if it comes in from the SW to NE even if it hits mobile bay, the winds wont be "optimal" for a high surge. When I said areas east of Mobile bay, I didnt mean the coastal areas ON mobile bay, I meant Areas east of Orange Beach . East of there is just not quite as surge prone do the coastal topography. They can still get huge surge, such as with Ivan, but the same storm hitting Gulf Shores and Jackson CO mississippi would produce a very different type of surge damage, with the surge in MS and mobile extending farther inland beyond the "beach"

[MGC]

I think the reasoning behind the watch area is since the front will be interacting with Ida the strongest winds will be on the west side of the cyclone. This nearly identical thing happened with Hurricane Hilda in 1964. Hilda came ashore in South Louisiana in October just as a front was approaching. Hilda got to about Baton Rouge and did a sharp right turn as the hurricane ran into the front. New Orleans got stronger north winds across Lake Ponchatrain than from the south. I'm thinking Ida will pose a nearly identical threat with winds from the north being stronger than from the south. Exactly where this setup will occur is beyond my knowledge. Apparently the NHC thinks it might occur in the watch area.

Have got all the plants and loose items in the garage, still have to gas up the car....usual hurricane preps....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Hmm the 12z GFS is much more intense than previous runs

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

There are reports of villages being buried by mudslides in El Salvador.

Yes that's true, very sad did you see my post above? 15 inches of rain in 24 hours I would say that 10 of those 15 inches fell in less than 12 hours

[HURAKAN]

Almost there

[Aric Dunn]

more back pedaling to come ....

[lonelymike]

Windfield in the northern gulf

Nice map Hurakan. Where did you get it from?

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

Nice map Hurakan. Where did you get it from?

tropicalstormrisk.com

[HURAKAN]

092
URNT15 KNHC 081701
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 15 20091108
165330 2221N 08709W 6969 03156 0081 +078 +013 079028 029 031 000 00
165400 2220N 08707W 6967 03158 0081 +078 +014 077028 028 030 000 00
165430 2219N 08705W 6967 03154 0070 +084 +016 074029 029 031 001 00
165500 2217N 08703W 6968 03152 0071 +083 +017 074030 030 032 000 00
165530 2216N 08701W 6967 03154 0070 +083 +019 069030 030 033 000 00
165600 2215N 08700W 6970 03148 0068 +082 +020 063025 027 033 003 00
165630 2213N 08658W 6966 03151 0064 +085 +022 068023 024 033 001 00
165700 2212N 08656W 6965 03153 0063 +085 +023 066020 021 031 000 00
165730 2211N 08654W 6968 03148 0057 +089 +024 066019 020 032 000 00
165800 2210N 08652W 6967 03149 0051 +094 +024 061019 021 032 000 00
165830 2209N 08650W 6969 03147 0051 +093 +025 059021 023 033 000 00
165900 2207N 08648W 6975 03140 0049 +095 +026 050023 024 037 001 00
165930 2206N 08646W 6969 03140 0047 +094 +027 049024 025 038 001 00
170000 2205N 08644W 6980 03134 0045 +097 +028 041025 026 039 001 00
170030 2204N 08642W 6965 03151 0055 +087 +029 043026 030 039 001 00
170100 2203N 08640W 6959 03149 0061 +080 +028 054029 029 036 003 00
170130 2202N 08639W 6972 03138 0056 +083 +024 047028 029 041 004 00
170200 2201N 08637W 6966 03146 0048 +091 +020 040028 033 045 003 00
170230 2200N 08635W 6968 03141 0053 +087 +017 044030 032 046 002 00
170300 2159N 08633W 6965 03140 0044 +090 +016 044029 033 048 004 00
$$
;

[expat2carib]

There are reports of villages being buried by mudslides in El Salvador.

Yes that's true, very sad did you see my post above? 15 inches of rain in 24 hours I would say that 10 of those 15 inches fell in less than 12 hours

Yes... it's sad. Especially because this event will be buried in the current development of Ida, (soon Eyeda).

Suggestion: Wouldn't it be a good idea to open a new thread for it? Maybe under aftermath?

[artist]

There are reports of villages being buried by mudslides in El Salvador.

Yes that's true, very sad did you see my post above? 15 inches of rain in 24 hours I would say that 10 of those 15 inches fell in less than 12 hours

thank you both for your reports. I am sorry to hear of the damage that has been doen. My prayers go out to all.
Here is the observations thread link for you so you can post any new information there -
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106995

[Macrocane]

There are reports of villages being buried by mudslides in El Salvador.

Yes that's true, very sad did you see my post above? 15 inches of rain in 24 hours I would say that 10 of those 15 inches fell in less than 12 hours

Yes... it's sad. Especially because this event will be buried in the current development of Ida.

Suggestion: Wouldn't it be a good idea to open a new thread for it? Maybe under aftermath?

In the aftermath and recovery forum? I think I will and I will be posting the updates about the emergency.

[Aric Dunn]

THey are not at 1500 ft are they ??

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THey are not at 1500 ft are they ??

No, more like 3000

[Macrocane]

So there's no need for a new thread. thanks!

[expat2carib]

In the aftermath and recovery forum? I think I will and I will be posting the updates about the emergency.

Yes