ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020354
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 02 20090902
034500 1742N 06449W 0124 00012 0135 +267 +197 360000 000 999 999 03
034530 1742N 06449W 0118 00012 0134 +269 +197 360000 000 999 999 03
034600 1742N 06449W 0117 00011 0130 +265 +197 069006 008 999 999 03
034630 1742N 06448W 9935 00157 0115 +260 +198 059018 020 999 999 03
034700 1742N 06446W 9755 00324 0119 +245 +200 057019 020 999 999 03
034730 1742N 06445W 9332 00710 0117 +221 +200 062022 022 999 999 03
034800 1742N 06443W 9014 01009 0122 +201 +199 063022 023 999 999 03
034830 1742N 06442W 8726 01308 0136 +184 +184 061023 024 999 999 03
034900 1741N 06440W 8304 01729 0125 +166 +166 063023 024 999 999 05
034930 1741N 06439W 7994 02059 9990 +152 +999 064021 022 999 999 05
035000 1741N 06437W 7742 02325 9990 +142 +999 066017 019 999 999 05
035030 1740N 06436W 7502 02591 9990 +132 +999 061014 014 999 999 05
035100 1740N 06434W 7272 02852 9990 +121 +999 063012 012 999 999 05
035130 1740N 06433W 7060 03099 9990 +103 +999 067009 011 999 999 05
035200 1739N 06431W 6870 03325 9990 +095 +999 070006 007 999 999 05
035230 1739N 06429W 6690 03547 9990 +083 +999 041003 004 999 999 05
035300 1739N 06428W 6517 03761 9990 +068 +999 251001 002 999 999 05
035330 1738N 06426W 6343 03983 9990 +051 +999 214005 006 999 999 05
035400 1738N 06424W 6169 04210 9990 +040 +999 200003 004 999 999 05
035430 1738N 06422W 6019 04413 9990 +031 +999 218003 004 999 999 05
$$
;


Takeoff

[Evil Jeremy]

I think there will be more TS watches and warnings at the 5 AM advisory. The wind field grew at the 11 PM advisory and should continue to grow as Erika does.

[boca]

At the 5am advisory tomorrow,do they digest the info from the 00GFS run?

[Aric Dunn]

At the 5am advisory tomorrow,do they digest the info from the 00GFS run?

you mean the NHC .. yeah there advisory package will include 00z and 6z model analysis ..

[thetruesms]

finally moved and settled in, trying to get caught up now Looks like I've missed a lot of fun

[boca]

At the 5am advisory tomorrow,do they digest the info from the 00GFS run?

you mean the NHC .. yeah there advisory package will include 00z and 6z model analysis ..

Yep sure did mean that I'm fighting to stay awake at this point. Thanks for the info.

[Aric Dunn]

I think there will be more TS watches and warnings at the 5 AM advisory. The wind field grew at the 11 PM advisory and should continue to grow as Erika does.

that and their forecast track should shift west as well ..

the motion is still slow and will likely be 285 or 290 when it resumes.

[MWatkins]

I am convinced the GFS struggles with resolving developing systems in this part of the basin for whatever the reason. I doesn't reflect Erika at 500MB going out 60 hours.

In fact, remember in 2003 it didn't see Cat 4 Isabel when it was in this general area?

MW

[Evil Jeremy]

Right above Hispaniola as something at 90 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

I am convinced the GFS struggles with resolving developing systems in this part of the basin for whatever the reason. I doesn't reflect Erika at 500MB going out 60 hours.

In fact, remember in 2003 it didn't see Cat 4 Isabel when it was in this general area?

MW

right well it did not see Dean or felix.. lol

but the track was still fairly decent even without the intensity part..

the synoptic set up is whats important .. at least thats what i get out of the gfs. lol

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020404
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 03 20090902
035500 1737N 06420W 5860 04623 9990 +015 +999 192004 004 999 999 05
035530 1737N 06418W 5725 04815 9990 +012 +999 189004 005 020 001 05
035600 1737N 06417W 5606 04984 9990 +014 +999 229001 001 021 001 05
035630 1736N 06415W 5482 05163 0276 -001 +999 223001 001 023 001 05
035700 1736N 06413W 5362 05342 0288 -015 +999 202003 003 023 001 05
035730 1735N 06411W 5255 05500 0297 -028 +999 198002 003 025 000 05
035800 1735N 06409W 5147 05665 0307 -039 +999 185003 004 023 000 05
035830 1735N 06407W 5046 05822 0317 -045 +999 150002 002 026 000 05
035900 1734N 06405W 4948 05977 0327 -053 +999 099002 002 024 001 01
035930 1734N 06403W 4855 06123 0336 -063 +999 130002 004 024 000 01
040000 1734N 06401W 4777 06257 0349 -068 +999 166005 005 024 000 01
040030 1733N 06359W 4692 06396 0357 -077 +999 170006 006 022 001 01
040100 1733N 06357W 4612 06530 0365 -087 +999 166006 006 023 000 01
040130 1732N 06355W 4534 06660 0373 -099 +999 158005 006 022 000 01
040200 1732N 06353W 4467 06773 0379 -107 +999 156002 003 021 001 01
040230 1732N 06351W 4404 06882 0385 -116 +999 175002 002 021 002 01
040300 1731N 06349W 4348 06981 0391 -124 +999 200003 003 020 004 01
040330 1731N 06347W 4295 07073 0397 -132 +999 214003 003 020 001 01
040400 1730N 06345W 4235 07181 0403 -141 +999 214004 004 020 000 01
040430 1730N 06343W 4177 07284 0408 -150 +999 215003 003 022 000 01
$$
;

[AtlanticWind]

I am convinced the GFS struggles with resolving developing systems in this part of the basin for whatever the reason. I doesn't reflect Erika at 500MB going out 60 hours.

In fact, remember in 2003 it didn't see Cat 4 Isabel when it was in this general area?

MW

I remember when it was the only model that didnt pick up wilma forming.

What are your thoughts on the path of Erica?

[Aric Dunn]

Right above Hispaniola as something at 90 hours:

yep and again the western extend of the ridge is slightly farther west than the 18z..

geez is this run going to put it into the gulf.. lol

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020404
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 03 20090902
035500 1737N 06420W 5860 04623 9990 +015 +999 192004 004 999 999 05
035530 1737N 06418W 5725 04815 9990 +012 +999 189004 005 020 001 05
035600 1737N 06417W 5606 04984 9990 +014 +999 229001 001 021 001 05
035630 1736N 06415W 5482 05163 0276 -001 +999 223001 001 023 001 05
035700 1736N 06413W 5362 05342 0288 -015 +999 202003 003 023 001 05
035730 1735N 06411W 5255 05500 0297 -028 +999 198002 003 025 000 05
035800 1735N 06409W 5147 05665 0307 -039 +999 185003 004 023 000 05
035830 1735N 06407W 5046 05822 0317 -045 +999 150002 002 026 000 05
035900 1734N 06405W 4948 05977 0327 -053 +999 099002 002 024 001 01
035930 1734N 06403W 4855 06123 0336 -063 +999 130002 004 024 000 01
040000 1734N 06401W 4777 06257 0349 -068 +999 166005 005 024 000 01
040030 1733N 06359W 4692 06396 0357 -077 +999 170006 006 022 001 01
040100 1733N 06357W 4612 06530 0365 -087 +999 166006 006 023 000 01
040130 1732N 06355W 4534 06660 0373 -099 +999 158005 006 022 000 01
040200 1732N 06353W 4467 06773 0379 -107 +999 156002 003 021 001 01
040230 1732N 06351W 4404 06882 0385 -116 +999 175002 002 021 002 01
040300 1731N 06349W 4348 06981 0391 -124 +999 200003 003 020 004 01
040330 1731N 06347W 4295 07073 0397 -132 +999 214003 003 020 001 01
040400 1730N 06345W 4235 07181 0403 -141 +999 214004 004 020 000 01
040430 1730N 06343W 4177 07284 0408 -150 +999 215003 003 022 000 01
$$
;

[Stormcenter]

No comment necessary considering the source though it still doesn't show much for Erika.
It has to make you wonder why. Hmmmmm shear maybe?
I would say yes.

Right above Hispaniola as something at 90 hours:

yep and again the western extend of the ridge is slightly farther west than the 18z..

geez is this run going to put it into the gulf.. lol

[boca]

At 138 hrs the GFS has Erika moving into SE Florida as a tropical wave.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

[Aric Dunn]

At 138 hrs the GFS has Erika moving into SE Florida as a tropical wave.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

actually its moving onto the florida straights
and the strength is not that important right now .. that is very far west

the ridge tot he north is quite a bit stronger and farther south this run .. similar to what the NAM just did with building heights over the SE ..

going to be interesting to see what the other models do.. i would put money on farther west since Erika is still not moving much ..

[Chigger_Lopez]

Latest satelite movement is south west or even ssw. Models missed that!

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020424
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 05 20090902
041500 1719N 06249W 4099 07424 0413 -160 -180 184010 010 999 999 03
041530 1718N 06246W 4098 07425 0414 -155 -180 185010 010 999 999 03
041600 1717N 06243W 4098 07424 0414 -155 -180 191010 011 999 999 03
041630 1717N 06240W 4099 07424 0414 -156 -181 196009 010 999 999 03
041700 1717N 06238W 4099 07424 0415 -159 -180 196009 009 999 999 03
041730 1716N 06235W 4098 07425 0414 -159 -180 187010 010 999 999 03
041800 1716N 06232W 4099 07423 0413 -160 -180 185010 010 025 000 03
041830 1715N 06229W 4099 07424 0413 -160 -180 188010 010 026 000 03
041900 1715N 06226W 4098 07424 0413 -159 -180 189010 010 025 000 03
041930 1714N 06223W 4099 07423 0414 -155 -180 188010 011 025 000 03
042000 1713N 06221W 4099 07424 0413 -155 -180 185011 012 025 000 03
042030 1713N 06218W 4099 07424 0414 -155 -179 188011 011 026 000 03
042100 1712N 06215W 4098 07424 0414 -155 -179 185010 010 025 000 03
042130 1712N 06212W 4099 07424 0414 -155 -179 182010 010 023 000 03
042200 1711N 06209W 4099 07424 0413 -155 -179 181010 010 999 999 03
042230 1711N 06206W 4100 07422 0414 -155 -179 181009 009 999 999 03
042300 1710N 06204W 4099 07424 0414 -155 -179 179008 008 999 999 03
042330 1710N 06201W 4099 07425 0415 -155 -178 176008 008 999 999 03
042400 1709N 06158W 4099 07423 0415 -155 -178 178007 008 999 999 03
042430 1709N 06155W 4099 07423 0414 -155 -178 179007 008 999 999 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

no pictures..