ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[boca]

How much weight does the NHC put on the GFS vs the euro model? Do they favor the GFS?

[Weatherfreak000]

I remember when UKMET was the consistent Western outlier and now it seems GFS is sniffing this solution out for the third model run in a row...this is pretty much always the beginning of the rest of the models shifting...Geez...a shot under SEFL would spell disaster for the gulf coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

Disaster? Come on

[Aric Dunn]

How much weight does the NHC put on the GFS vs the euro model? Do they favor the GFS?

The GFS is always a big player.. and they use whatever model is handling better..
and right now the Euro for once is not far off from the gfs during the first 3 days or so its only after that they diverge.. but remember the euro yesterday had a florida impact but Ericka was moving faster .. i bet the 00z run if the euro is back west..

[boca]

I remember when UKMET was the consistent Western outlier and now it seems GFS is sniffing this solution out for the third model run in a row...this is pretty much always the beginning of the rest of the models shifting...Geez...a shot under SEFL would spell disaster for the gulf coast.

Lets hope the GFS model has a cold and can hardly sniff.

[RL3AO]

I'll post some once they approach the storm. Not sure if I will post one every 10 minutes though.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020434
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 06 20090902
042500 1708N 06152W 4099 07424 0414 -155 -177 175007 007 999 999 03
042530 1708N 06150W 4099 07423 0413 -155 -177 183008 008 999 999 03
042600 1707N 06147W 4099 07422 0412 -155 -178 196007 007 999 999 03
042630 1705N 06145W 4099 07423 0412 -155 -178 202007 007 999 999 03
042700 1703N 06143W 4099 07420 0411 -155 -178 200006 006 999 999 03
042730 1701N 06141W 4098 07423 0412 -155 -179 196007 007 999 999 03
042800 1659N 06139W 4101 07419 0411 -155 -179 201006 007 999 999 03
042830 1658N 06137W 4099 07422 0411 -154 -181 199007 008 999 999 03
042900 1656N 06135W 4101 07418 0410 -150 -181 209008 008 999 999 03
042930 1654N 06133W 4097 07423 0409 -152 -181 201008 008 999 999 03
043000 1652N 06131W 4100 07417 0408 -152 -182 198007 007 999 999 03
043030 1650N 06129W 4099 07419 0409 -150 -182 207008 008 999 999 03
043100 1648N 06127W 4098 07421 0410 -150 -182 209007 008 024 000 03
043130 1646N 06125W 4099 07420 0410 -150 -181 205007 007 025 000 03
043200 1644N 06123W 4099 07420 0410 -151 -183 200006 006 025 000 03
043230 1643N 06121W 4098 07421 0410 -151 -185 195005 006 999 999 03
043300 1641N 06119W 4099 07420 0410 -154 -186 187004 005 999 999 03
043330 1639N 06117W 4099 07420 0410 -155 -187 170004 004 999 999 03
043400 1637N 06115W 4099 07420 0410 -155 -187 169004 004 999 999 03
043430 1635N 06113W 4098 07420 0409 -155 -188 167003 004 999 999 03
$$
;

[Stormcenter]

EURO

How much weight does the NHC put on the GFS vs the euro model? Do they favor the GFS?

[Wx_Warrior]

I've seen it all now....Gfs

[bahamaswx]

Latest satelite movement is south west or even ssw. Models missed that!

Certainly not. Convention has expanded mainly south and west only.

[Derek Ortt]

EURO

How much weight does the NHC put on the GFS vs the euro model? Do they favor the GFS?

some of the forecasters place the most weight on GFS (at least that was the case before). Really depends upon the forecaster

[Stormcenter]

How can you make that statement based on infrared satellite loop?

Latest satelite movement is south west or even ssw. Models missed that!

[curtadams]

Remember the motion we're seeing is that of the topmost clouds, which is greatly influenced by changes in shear. We know the shear was shifting earlier; we can be pretty sure it's shifting now; so there's no way to say how much of the cloud motion is LLC motion and how much is shear shift.

[Aric Dunn]

THe NOGAPS has shifted a huge amount.. it is slower by about 200 miles compared the 18z run and the ridge is farther west .. this stall may have just changed the difference between a us landfall and a fish ..

open both images in separate tabs and toggle back and forth..

first one is 00z at 72 hours..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... ql&tau=072

this is 18z and 84 hours..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... ql&tau=084

[deltadog03]

It appears that the american models tonight are showing that trof coming down into the plains from hr96 on are slowing it down and holding it back further WEST. That allows the ridge to build in/hold in place. It kinda makes sense since the westerlies will be up on the canadian boarder attm. We shall see.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gfs is not as bad as cmc but come on.

[Aric Dunn]

THe NOGAPS has shifted a huge amount.. it is slower by about 200 miles compared the 18z run and the ridge is farther west .. this stall may have just changed the difference between a us landfall and a fish ..

open both images in separate tabs and toggle back and forth..

first one is 00z at 72 hours..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... ql&tau=072

this is 18z and 84 hours..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... ql&tau=084

ok well the 00z is done and is farther east.. after being much slower but much stronger after 72 hours it makes a hard right turn and out to sea.. lol.. not sure what to make of that .. hmm..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009090200

from 72 to 84 hours it move like 100 miles .. and the ridge to its north slide east south east very fast.. hmmm.. that almost questionable..

[deltadog03]

I know our sat, is out of commish for now, but here is a pic from about 30 mins ago. Its at a weird angle for sure, but shows that area on the NW side still showing signs of setting off like a bomb up there. Will be interesting to see what the sat pic shows at 215am.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020444
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 07 20090902
043500 1633N 06111W 4099 07418 0408 -155 -188 165003 003 999 999 03
043530 1632N 06109W 4098 07419 0407 -155 -188 153003 003 999 999 03
043600 1630N 06107W 4098 07418 0407 -152 -189 168003 003 999 999 03
043630 1628N 06105W 4098 07421 0408 -153 -189 139003 003 999 999 03
043700 1626N 06103W 4101 07416 0408 -150 -189 136002 002 024 000 03
043730 1624N 06100W 4098 07421 0409 -150 -189 148002 002 999 999 03
043800 1622N 06058W 4099 07420 0409 -150 -189 140002 002 999 999 03
043830 1620N 06056W 4098 07421 0410 -150 -189 116003 003 999 999 03
043900 1618N 06054W 4098 07420 0409 -150 -188 097002 003 999 999 03
043930 1616N 06052W 4099 07419 0408 -150 -188 097002 002 999 999 03
044000 1615N 06050W 4100 07418 0409 -150 -188 082002 002 999 999 03
044030 1613N 06048W 4098 07420 0409 -150 -189 063001 002 999 999 03
044100 1611N 06046W 4098 07421 0409 -150 -189 048002 002 999 999 03
044130 1609N 06044W 4098 07419 0408 -150 -190 054002 002 999 999 03
044200 1607N 06042W 4099 07416 0406 -150 -191 056002 002 999 999 03
044230 1605N 06040W 4097 07415 0402 -150 -193 062004 004 999 999 03
044300 1606N 06037W 4101 07413 0405 -150 -194 078003 004 999 999 03
044330 1606N 06034W 4098 07415 0404 -150 -195 080003 003 999 999 03
044400 1607N 06031W 4098 07415 0404 -150 -196 074004 004 025 000 03
044430 1608N 06029W 4098 07415 0404 -150 -197 072003 004 999 999 03
$$
;

['CaneFreak]

NOGAPS gets a red card...LOL...not to steal words from Derek Ortt...