ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

I doubt Bill becomes a Cat-5. In fact, I think Bill has likely peaked in intensity. Recon has reported a second wind maxima and the latest vortex message said the SW part of the eye was open...so it appears Bill is on the verge of an eyewall replacement cycle. If Bill does do an EWRC than the wind field should expand quite a bit. Still a threat to Canada, EC should see some big waves.....MGC

Yep I'm a little worried about the wind field expanding, esp given how close it may well end up coming in to hitting the far NE plus obviously Nova Scotia.

[cpdaman]

That was my point. I just wonder if those readings could be a precursor of east coast readings later.

the only place that may see that is eastern NE IMO and probably less.....since Bill will be weaker than he is now....thou in the maritimes his windfield will likely expand as he undergoes extratropical transistion so that type of size is possible in atlantic canada IMO.

the swell will reach the outer banks this weekend but because of swell decay (as it travels greater distance from the winds that produced it ......a bit of energy and size is lost).....you should see 10 foot waves crashing ashore this weekend which is also fun to WATCH

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KWBC 192145
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 08 20090819
213600 1843N 05621W 6951 03147 0013 +094 +091 197059 060 040 001 00
213630 1845N 05621W 6950 03146 0013 +094 +087 198058 059 040 000 03
213700 1848N 05622W 6952 03143 0010 +094 +088 200058 059 999 999 03
213730 1849N 05623W 6950 03142 0007 +094 +088 202059 059 039 000 00
213800 1851N 05625W 6951 03137 0000 +098 +078 203059 059 039 001 00
213830 1853N 05627W 6953 03132 9996 +100 +073 202059 060 040 000 00
213900 1854N 05628W 6952 03130 9992 +100 +075 201062 062 039 000 00
213930 1856N 05630W 6953 03125 9992 +096 +087 199063 063 042 001 00
214000 1857N 05632W 6951 03124 9987 +095 +093 198064 065 043 002 00
214030 1859N 05633W 6952 03120 9986 +093 +092 198065 066 043 001 00
214100 1900N 05635W 6953 03115 9974 +102 +081 197067 067 044 003 00
214130 1902N 05637W 6951 03114 9972 +100 +079 197069 069 046 004 00
214200 1903N 05639W 6956 03104 9971 +095 +091 201071 074 047 005 00
214230 1905N 05641W 6955 03099 9965 +097 +079 201072 073 048 003 00
214300 1906N 05642W 6952 03099 9966 +092 +084 200072 073 049 001 00
214330 1908N 05644W 6952 03096 9958 +094 +087 200073 074 050 002 00
214400 1909N 05646W 6953 03089 9955 +092 +092 201076 076 049 003 00
214430 1911N 05648W 6953 03085 9947 +094 +092 201078 079 052 005 00
214500 1912N 05650W 6955 03076 9935 +098 +094 201079 082 056 007 00
214530 1914N 05651W 6955 03068 9926 +097 +097 198084 085 056 008 00

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
21:36:00z   18.43°N   056.21°W   695.1 hPa   3147m   1001.3 hPa   9.4°C   9.1°C   197° @ 059kt   60kt   40kt   1mm   OK
21:36:30z   18.45°N   056.21°W   695.0 hPa   3146m   1001.3 hPa   9.4°C   8.7°C   198° @ 058kt   59kt   40kt   0mm   Suspect
21:37:00z   18.48°N   056.22°W   695.2 hPa   3143m   1001.0 hPa   9.4°C   8.8°C   200° @ 058kt   59kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
21:37:30z   18.49°N   056.23°W   695.0 hPa   3142m   1007.7 hPa   9.4°C   8.8°C   202° @ 059kt   59kt   39kt   0mm   OK
21:38:00z   18.51°N   056.25°W   695.1 hPa   3137m   1000.0 hPa   9.8°C   7.8°C   203° @ 059kt   59kt   39kt   1mm   OK
21:38:30z   18.53°N   056.27°W   695.3 hPa   3132m   999.6 hPa   10.0°C   7.3°C   202° @ 059kt   60kt   40kt   0mm   OK
21:39:00z   18.54°N   056.28°W   695.2 hPa   3130m   999.2 hPa   10.0°C   7.5°C   201° @ 062kt   62kt   39kt   0mm   OK
21:39:30z   18.56°N   056.30°W   695.3 hPa   3125m   999.2 hPa   9.6°C   8.7°C   199° @ 063kt   63kt   42kt   1mm   OK
21:40:00z   18.57°N   056.32°W   695.1 hPa   3124m   998.7 hPa   9.5°C   9.3°C   198° @ 064kt   65kt   43kt   2mm   OK
21:40:30z   18.59°N   056.33°W   695.2 hPa   3120m   998.6 hPa   9.3°C   9.2°C   198° @ 065kt   66kt   43kt   1mm   OK
21:41:00z   19.00°N   056.35°W   695.3 hPa   3115m   997.4 hPa   10.2°C   8.1°C   197° @ 067kt   67kt   44kt   3mm   OK
21:41:30z   19.02°N   056.37°W   695.1 hPa   3114m   997.2 hPa   10.0°C   7.9°C   197° @ 069kt   69kt   46kt   4mm   OK
21:42:00z   19.03°N   056.39°W   695.6 hPa   3104m   997.1 hPa   9.5°C   9.1°C   201° @ 071kt   74kt   47kt   5mm   OK
21:42:30z   19.05°N   056.41°W   695.5 hPa   3099m   996.5 hPa   9.7°C   7.9°C   201° @ 072kt   73kt   48kt   3mm   OK
21:43:00z   19.06°N   056.42°W   695.2 hPa   3099m   996.6 hPa   9.2°C   8.4°C   200° @ 072kt   73kt   49kt   1mm   OK
21:43:30z   19.08°N   056.44°W   695.2 hPa   3096m   995.8 hPa   9.4°C   8.7°C   200° @ 073kt   74kt   50kt   2mm   OK
21:44:00z   19.09°N   056.46°W   695.3 hPa   3089m   995.5 hPa   9.2°C   9.2°C   201° @ 076kt   76kt   49kt   3mm   OK
21:44:30z   19.11°N   056.48°W   695.3 hPa   3085m   994.7 hPa   9.4°C   9.2°C   201° @ 078kt   79kt   52kt   5mm   OK
21:45:00z   19.12°N   056.50°W   695.5 hPa   3076m   993.5 hPa   9.8°C   9.4°C   201° @ 079kt   82kt   56kt   7mm   OK
21:45:30z   19.14°N   056.51°W   695.5 hPa   3068m   992.6 hPa   9.7°C   9.7°C   198° @ 084kt   85kt   56kt   8mm   OK


URNT11 KWBC 192133
97779 21334 40185 56419 30700 20055 10098 /3092
RMK NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 02 KWBC

[cpdaman]

waiting for the new 2100 utc steering flow charts .....to see if the ridge is building in a bit more (to close the weakness between 55-65) and turn wild bill more W

[KWT]

Wil lbe very interesting to see I agree Cpdamn. Whatever happens this one is coming a lot closer then any of the models really had expected even 48hrs ago!

[Nimbus]

In the water vapor imagery you can see the ULL that had been progged to rotate around the ridge from near the Delmarva moving SE is now moving NE? Never dropped south of 30N. Wonder what the models will do now?

[floridasun78]

it look it turning back to wnw or west in last few frame

[cpdaman]

Wil lbe very interesting to see I agree Cpdamn. Whatever happens this one is coming a lot closer then any of the models really had expected even 48hrs ago!

do you know when the CIMSS 2100 utc charts come out .....it's bout 22utc now

[KWT]

Sorry I'm not sure, Deltadog would know if he was about!

Bill passing 20N around 57W but it does seem to have slowed down, suggesting steering currents have slowed down and may lead to a more WNW track again soon...

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KWBC 192155
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 09 20090819
214600 1915N 05653W 6945 03078 9914 +103 +103 203071 078 056 009 00
214630 1916N 05655W 6957 03059 9904 +108 +108 198071 073 059 006 00
214700 1918N 05657W 6954 03055 9898 +108 +103 200078 080 060 004 00
214730 1919N 05659W 6953 03052 9893 +107 +101 199082 082 062 001 00
214800 1921N 05700W 6952 03045 9881 +111 +099 201084 085 061 000 00
214830 1922N 05702W 6952 03038 9878 +104 +104 201088 089 064 003 00
214900 1924N 05704W 6950 03029 9868 +104 +104 201086 087 063 006 00
214930 1925N 05706W 6947 03025 9860 +101 +101 205081 085 064 019 00
215000 1927N 05708W 6953 03010 9833 +117 +112 206084 089 066 012 00
215030 1928N 05709W 6960 02994 9824 +121 +105 205090 090 064 002 00
215100 1929N 05711W 6954 02992 9820 +114 +108 204091 091 063 005 00
215130 1931N 05713W 6962 02971 9804 +116 +116 206092 093 063 006 00
215200 1932N 05715W 6962 02960 9795 +113 +112 207090 090 063 000 00
215230 1934N 05716W 6959 02944 9777 +112 +110 206093 093 065 001 00
215300 1935N 05718W 6956 02933 9759 +114 +106 207096 097 067 000 00
215330 1936N 05720W 6958 02914 9730 +124 +097 207099 101 070 000 00
215400 1938N 05722W 6958 02893 9705 +127 +100 211103 105 074 002 00
215430 1939N 05723W 6964 02866 9667 +139 +112 214103 105 079 005 00
215500 1940N 05725W 6947 02862 9640 +139 +116 213108 109 082 005 00
215530 1942N 05727W 6948 02835 9610 +141 +120 212108 109 084 000 00

000
URNT15 KWBC 192205
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 10 20090819
215600 1943N 05728W 6960 02785 9567 +146 +131 209100 114 083 000 00
215630 1945N 05730W 6956 02762 9528 +153 +141 214073 080 082 000 00
215700 1946N 05732W 6959 02738 9500 +161 +128 217060 063 063 000 03
215730 1947N 05733W 6959 02722 9480 +167 +121 214052 055 050 000 03
215800 1949N 05735W 6955 02719 9476 +162 +131 209039 044 038 000 03
215830 1950N 05737W 6956 02715 9463 +171 +122 205022 030 028 000 03
215900 1950N 05739W 6956 02710 9442 +195 +063 195010 012 017 000 03
215930 1951N 05741W 6960 02703 9449 +187 +064 137004 006 006 000 00
220000 1952N 05743W 6951 02715 9450 +186 +062 051003 004 005 000 03
220030 1953N 05745W 6956 02709 9448 +190 +059 047002 004 008 000 00
220100 1955N 05746W 6956 02712 9457 +182 +065 005005 007 009 000 03
220130 1956N 05748W 6953 02713 9451 +186 +073 030010 015 007 000 03
220200 1958N 05750W 6956 02714 9455 +183 +090 032020 024 999 999 03
220230 1959N 05751W 6961 02711 9454 +186 +111 022038 044 999 999 03
220300 2001N 05753W 6957 02724 9473 +177 +102 025049 051 063 002 03
220330 2002N 05754W 6959 02737 9485 +175 +120 029062 067 074 000 03
220400 2003N 05755W 6959 02748 9506 +164 +142 025072 073 083 004 00
220430 2005N 05757W 7006 02712 9560 +135 +135 034080 089 083 025 00
220500 2006N 05758W 6987 02767 9587 +139 +138 037090 092 085 021 00
220530 2007N 05800W 6975 02806 9611 +141 +138 044097 099 083 018 00

[DreamworksSKG]

Does anyone know why the BAMM Model is always so far east?

thanks

its always the furthest east model on every run

CLIPS is pretty erratic as well

[RattleMan]

(posting recon obs)

Uh? On my side URNT15 KWBC hasn't updated since HDOB 08...

EDIT: Getting them from the NHC works instead of URNT15 KWBC directly. I'll use that from now on

[KWT]

18z once again hammers Nova Scotia. Probably a bit further east then the last run though:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[drezee]

got it here
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-NOAA.shtml?

I didn't want you to miss them

[CronkPSU]

Does anyone know why the BAMM Model is always so far east?

thanks

its always the furthest east model on every run

CLIPS is pretty erratic as well

"Clips" is not a model, it is just where historically a storm at this time of year will head

[MWatkins]

To me the big flick with the 18Z is it is different with it's handling of the upper system vs. the 12 Z run. See for yourself at the same verify time:

84 hours at 18Z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090m.gif

Will be intersting to see what happens with the 0Z runs.

Also, is there an environmental mission tonight?

MW

[RattleMan]

Anyway, decodings for the last two:

HDOB 09:

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
21:46:00z   19.15°N   56.53°W   694.5 hPa   3078m   991.4 hPa   10.3°C   10.3°C   203° @ 071kt   78kt   56kt   9mm   OK
21:46:30z   19.16°N   56.55°W   695.7 hPa   3059m   990.4 hPa   10.8°C   10.8°C   198° @ 071kt   73kt   59kt   6mm   OK
21:47:00z   19.18°N   56.57°W   695.4 hPa   3055m   989.8 hPa   10.8°C   10.3°C   200° @ 078kt   80kt   60kt   4mm   OK
21:47:30z   19.19°N   56.59°W   695.3 hPa   3052m   989.3 hPa   10.7°C   10.1°C   199° @ 082kt   82kt   62kt   1mm   OK
21:48:00z   19.21°N   57.00°W   695.2 hPa   3045m   988.1 hPa   11.1°C   9.9°C   201° @ 084kt   85kt   61kt   0mm   OK
21:48:30z   19.22°N   57.02°W   695.2 hPa   3038m   987.8 hPa   10.4°C   10.4°C   201° @ 088kt   89kt   64kt   3mm   OK
21:49:00z   19.24°N   57.04°W   695.0 hPa   3029m   986.8 hPa   10.4°C   10.4°C   201° @ 086kt   87kt   63kt   6mm   OK
21:49:30z   19.25°N   57.06°W   694.7 hPa   3025m   986.0 hPa   10.1°C   10.1°C   205° @ 081kt   85kt   64kt   19mm   OK
21:50:00z   19.27°N   57.08°W   695.3 hPa   3010m   983.3 hPa   11.7°C   11.2°C   206° @ 084kt   89kt   66kt   12mm   OK
21:50:30z   19.28°N   57.09°W   696.0 hPa   2994m   982.4 hPa   12.1°C   10.5°C   205° @ 090kt   90kt   64kt   2mm   OK
21:51:00z   19.29°N   57.11°W   695.4 hPa   2992m   982.0 hPa   11.4°C   10.8°C   204° @ 091kt   91kt   63kt   5mm   OK
21:51:30z   19.31°N   57.13°W   696.2 hPa   2971m   980.4 hPa   11.6°C   11.6°C   206° @ 092kt   93kt   63kt   6mm   OK
21:52:00z   19.32°N   57.15°W   696.2 hPa   2960m   979.5 hPa   11.3°C   11.2°C   207° @ 090kt   90kt   63kt   0mm   OK
21:52:30z   19.34°N   57.16°W   695.9 hPa   2944m   977.7 hPa   11.2°C   11.0°C   206° @ 093kt   93kt   65kt   1mm   OK
21:53:00z   19.35°N   57.18°W   695.6 hPa   2933m   975.9 hPa   11.4°C   10.6°C   207° @ 096kt   97kt   67kt   0mm   OK
21:53:30z   19.36°N   57.20°W   695.8 hPa   2914m   973.0 hPa   12.4°C   9.7°C   207° @ 099kt   101kt   70kt   0mm   OK
21:54:00z   19.38°N   57.22°W   695.8 hPa   2893m   970.5 hPa   12.7°C   10.0°C   211° @ 103kt   105kt   74kt   2mm   OK
21:54:30z   19.39°N   57.23°W   696.4 hPa   2866m   966.7 hPa   13.9°C   11.2°C   214° @ 103kt   105kt   79kt   5mm   OK
21:55:00z   19.40°N   57.25°W   694.7 hPa   2862m   964.0 hPa   13.9°C   11.6°C   213° @ 108kt   109kt   82kt   5mm   OK
21:55:30z   19.42°N   57.27°W   694.8 hPa   2835m   961.0 hPa   14.1°C   12.0°C   212° @ 108kt   109kt   84kt   0mm   OK


HDOB 10:

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
21:56:00z   19.43°N   57.28°W   696.0 hPa   2785m   956.7 hPa   14.6°C   13.1°C   209° @ 100kt   114kt   83kt   0mm   OK
21:56:30z   19.45°N   57.30°W   695.6 hPa   2762m   952.8 hPa   15.3°C   14.1°C   214° @ 073kt   80kt   82kt   0mm   OK
21:57:00z   19.46°N   57.32°W   695.9 hPa   2738m   950.0 hPa   16.1°C   12.8°C   217° @ 060kt   63kt   63kt   0mm   Suspect
21:57:30z   19.47°N   57.33°W   695.9 hPa   2722m   948.0 hPa   16.7°C   12.1°C   214° @ 052kt   55kt   50kt   0mm   Suspect
21:58:00z   19.49°N   57.35°W   695.5 hPa   2719m   947.6 hPa   16.2°C   13.1°C   209° @ 039kt   44kt   38kt   0mm   Suspect
21:58:30z   19.50°N   57.37°W   695.6 hPa   2715m   946.3 hPa   17.1°C   12.2°C   205° @ 022kt   30kt   28kt   0mm   Suspect
21:59:00z   19.50°N   57.39°W   695.6 hPa   2710m   944.2 hPa   19.5°C   6.3°C   195° @ 010kt   12kt   17kt   0mm   Suspect
21:59:30z   19.51°N   57.41°W   696.0 hPa   2703m   944.9 hPa   18.7°C   6.4°C   137° @ 004kt   6kt   6kt   0mm   OK
22:00:00z   19.52°N   57.43°W   695.1 hPa   2715m   945.0 hPa   18.6°C   6.2°C   51° @ 003kt   4kt   5kt   0mm   Suspect
22:00:30z   19.53°N   57.45°W   695.6 hPa   2709m   944.8 hPa   19.0°C   5.9°C   47° @ 002kt   4kt   8kt   0mm   OK
22:01:00z   19.55°N   57.46°W   695.6 hPa   2712m   945.7 hPa   18.2°C   6.5°C   50° @ 005kt   7kt   9kt   0mm   Suspect
22:01:30z   19.56°N   57.48°W   695.3 hPa   2713m   945.1 hPa   18.6°C   7.3°C   30° @ 010kt   15kt   7kt   0mm   Suspect
22:02:00z   19.58°N   57.50°W   695.6 hPa   2714m   945.5 hPa   18.3°C   9.0°C   32° @ 020kt   24kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
22:02:30z   19.59°N   57.51°W   696.1 hPa   2711m   945.4 hPa   18.6°C   11.1°C   22° @ 038kt   44kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
22:03:00z   20.01°N   57.53°W   695.7 hPa   2724m   947.3 hPa   17.7°C   10.2°C   25° @ 049kt   51kt   63kt   2mm   Suspect
22:03:30z   20.02°N   57.54°W   695.9 hPa   2737m   948.5 hPa   17.5°C   12.0°C   29° @ 062kt   67kt   74kt   0mm   Suspect
22:04:00z   20.03°N   57.55°W   695.9 hPa   2748m   950.6 hPa   16.4°C   14.2°C   25° @ 072kt   73kt   83kt   4mm   OK
22:04:30z   20.05°N   57.57°W   700.6 hPa   2712m   956.0 hPa   13.5°C   13.5°C   34° @ 080kt   89kt   83kt   25mm   OK
22:05:00z   20.06°N   57.58°W   698.7 hPa   2767m   958.7 hPa   13.9°C   13.8°C   37° @ 090kt   92kt   85kt   21mm   OK
22:05:30z   20.07°N   58.00°W   697.5 hPa   2806m   961.1 hPa   14.1°C   13.8°C   44° @ 097kt   99kt   83kt   18mm   OK


I haven't made a dropsonde ob decoder yet, but:

000
UZNT13 KWBC 192218
XXAA 69222 99254 70619 07951 99015 28245 06021 00129 27041 06020
92815 21629 07024 85546 17643 07523 70183 09257 07521 50590 05575
04013 40761 15980 04510 30972 31767 05514 25098 41769 09513 20245
529// 15009 88999 77999
31313 09608 82144
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 07
62626 SPL 2535N06196W 2159 MBL WND 06021 AEV 20801 DLM WND 07513
014160 WL150 06020 084 REL 2536N06190W 214455 SPG 2535N06196W 215
921 =
XXBB 69228 99254 70619 07951 00015 28245 11950 22815 22897 20656
33850 17643 44788 13823 55773 13457 66739 11856 77734 11858 88661
06450 99649 06268 11625 04663 22614 03667 33604 02460 44573 00161
55563 00565 66548 02160 77512 04775 88448 10187 99364 19785 11298
31967 22241 43369 33209 51567
21212 00015 06021 11949 06521 22901 07526 33850 07523 44675 08023
55557 05015 66526 06515 77484 03011 88443 05510 99384 04011 11336
07010 22297 05015 33277 05512 44246 09510 55216 00000 66187 16510
77177 17021 88167 18523
31313 09608 82144
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 07
62626 SPL 2535N06196W 2159 MBL WND 06021 AEV 20801 DLM WND 07513
014160 WL150 06020 084 REL 2536N06190W 214455 SPG 2535N06196W 215
921 =

000
UZNT13 KWBC 192223
XXAA 69222 99251 70597 07859 99014 28045 07021 00124 26838 07524
92809 21010 09027 85539 17635 10529 70179 09050 10021 50589 05378
07014 40761 15586 09002 30972 30550 16020 25099 40372 17513 20247
523// 16538 88999 77999
31313 09608 82200
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 08
62626 SPL 2511N05976W 2215 MBL WND 07524 AEV 20801 DLM WND 12514
013152 WL150 07024 080 REL 2509N05970W 220042 SPG 2511N05976W 221
503 =
XXBB 69228 99251 70597 07859 00014 28045 11943 22010 22862 17810
33850 17635 44759 13448 55682 08047 66652 06879 77640 05881 88632
04660 99620 04276 11557 00176 22390 15984 33322 26572 44307 29557
55294 31743 66283 33766 77271 35576 88236 43368 99220 46960 11211
49556 22202 51957
21212 00014 07021 11997 07525 22850 10529 33679 10525 44641 07519
55537 09017 66514 06014 77501 07014 88461 05015 99346 16002 11321
17511 22309 15518 33287 16022 44277 18018 55235 18010 66201 16038
77170 19032 88160 19037
31313 09608 82200
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 08
62626 SPL 2511N05976W 2215 MBL WND 07524 AEV 20801 DLM WND 12514
013152 WL150 07024 080 REL 2509N05970W 220042 SPG 2511N05976W 221
503 =

[baygirl_1]

Does anyone know why the BAMM Model is always so far east?

thanks

its always the furthest east model on every run

CLIPS is pretty erratic as well

Dreamworks, I'm not one the experts here (in fact, I do more reading than posting!), but this might help: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467 It's a thread some of the experts started to explain the different models.
Good luck!

[storms NC]

JMO Only!
I see everyone talking about how Bill might hit NE of the Eastern coast. But if Bill stays on the track he is on he would hit SC up. I don't think it will happen. I don't think any thing is out of the Question at this time. My best guess would be Bill came around the High to the west side and miss land all the way around.JMO Only

[wxman57]

Does any one have that map to where you place the Highs and the hurricane around. I had it but can't find it for my gran daughter who is 6. She like my map on here. I thought she would like it.

Here, I made your daughter a nice colorful map.