ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[FrontRunner]

Yeah I noticed that too, with the recon wind direction. But I figured I might have just been having trouble visualizing the approach and wind barbs without the nice graphic that someone often posts on the recon threads! Relocation of the center? Or maybe it's still just pretty tight, and they ended up not coming towards it on their route like they originally intended?

[wxsouth]

Hey guys, have you seen the latest HDOB's from recon? At 17.2 and 58.5 they have southeast winds at 20kt flight level (850hpa) and SFMR of 35kts. WTH?
How can there be such broad area of SE winds just 70-80 miles southwest of the center? I am scratching my head... Any theories of why?

Its because the low level center is 70-80 miles southwest of where it was expected. The flight passed through a weak low level center just after reaching its operational altitude. Time will tell if there is another center buried in the convection...but it doesn't look like it at the moment. The low level structure of the system is very poor.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020534
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 12 20090902
052500 1735N 05759W 8433 01577 0109 +175 +120 125029 030 029 003 00
052530 1735N 05758W 8425 01587 0109 +174 +120 129030 030 028 003 00
052600 1736N 05757W 8425 01587 0109 +176 +120 129032 034 024 003 03
052630 1738N 05756W 8432 01577 0111 +172 +120 131033 034 026 004 00
052700 1739N 05755W 8434 01578 0115 +165 +119 130034 034 027 006 00
052730 1741N 05754W 8426 01585 0116 +165 +117 131037 037 025 006 00
052800 1742N 05753W 8433 01582 0122 +161 +115 127036 037 026 004 00
052830 1744N 05752W 8424 01587 0116 +166 +113 125034 035 024 004 00
052900 1745N 05751W 8430 01583 0116 +170 +110 129032 033 022 003 00
052930 1747N 05751W 8433 01582 0116 +174 +109 125031 031 022 002 00
053000 1748N 05750W 8429 01587 0116 +173 +110 126029 030 023 002 00
053030 1749N 05749W 8425 01589 0115 +173 +111 132026 027 022 002 00
053100 1751N 05748W 8430 01584 0115 +173 +112 137028 029 023 001 00
053130 1752N 05747W 8433 01583 0118 +168 +113 135027 028 025 000 00
053200 1754N 05746W 8415 01602 0122 +165 +114 133028 029 024 001 00
053230 1755N 05745W 8436 01581 0128 +158 +115 123030 031 025 000 00
053300 1757N 05744W 8429 01589 0126 +159 +115 124029 029 027 000 00
053330 1759N 05743W 8430 01587 0126 +160 +114 125028 028 024 002 00
053400 1800N 05742W 8429 01589 0127 +159 +114 120028 030 025 001 00
053430 1802N 05741W 8431 01587 0129 +155 +114 119030 031 026 001 00
$$
;


Looks to be in really bad shape.

[RL3AO]

[Aric Dunn]

yeah that or the center reformed somewhere..

[RL3AO]

Yeah. Theres gotta be something else up there.

[djones65]

Thanks wxsouth!! I saw small circulation near 16.5 and 59.2 with extrap sfc pressure 1008-1009hpa just as plane descended to 850hpa level. Since then all I see is broad SE flow and rising pressure. The last set of HDOBs showed extrap sfc pressure rise 2 mb as it continued northeastward. You are obviously right wxsouth, Erika does not resemble a cyclone based on recon obs, but satellite imagery is confounding! Thanks again for your prompt reply.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020544
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 13 20090902
053500 1803N 05740W 8430 01587 0129 +157 +113 120029 030 027 000 00
053530 1805N 05739W 8432 01587 0130 +155 +113 115029 030 026 000 00
053600 1806N 05738W 8430 01589 0131 +157 +112 110030 030 026 000 00
053630 1808N 05737W 8430 01589 0129 +160 +112 107030 030 026 000 00
053700 1809N 05736W 8429 01591 0131 +159 +112 108030 030 026 000 00
053730 1811N 05735W 8432 01589 0131 +159 +112 107029 030 026 000 00
053800 1812N 05734W 8429 01590 0133 +156 +112 107029 029 026 000 00
053830 1814N 05733W 8428 01594 0135 +152 +113 105030 032 028 000 00
053900 1815N 05732W 8431 01589 0134 +155 +112 104030 032 027 000 00
053930 1817N 05731W 8427 01594 0134 +155 +112 105031 032 024 001 00
054000 1818N 05730W 8423 01595 0137 +153 +112 110031 033 020 001 00
054030 1819N 05729W 8442 01577 0131 +160 +110 111033 033 023 000 00
054100 1821N 05728W 8426 01595 0133 +158 +109 109032 033 022 000 00
054130 1822N 05727W 8422 01598 0131 +158 +110 109030 030 022 002 00
054200 1824N 05727W 8431 01589 0130 +160 +110 114029 030 028 000 00
054230 1825N 05726W 8432 01590 0135 +156 +110 113029 031 027 000 00
054300 1826N 05725W 8437 01587 0135 +155 +111 114030 031 028 000 00
054330 1828N 05724W 8429 01593 0133 +159 +110 114032 033 027 000 00
054400 1829N 05723W 8430 01594 0131 +164 +111 113029 031 027 000 00
054430 1830N 05722W 8429 01596 0131 +163 +112 114026 027 027 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL bending west, not a surprise given the GFS solution.

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 020517
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA     06L
INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP  2
DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)
   0            17.2             57.3           315./ 1.9
   6            17.4             58.2           278./ 8.0
  12            17.6             58.8           292./ 6.5
  18            18.0             59.4           303./ 6.6
  24            18.2             60.0           292./ 6.0
  30            18.5             60.6           294./ 6.2
  36            18.9             61.2           298./ 7.2
  42            19.1             62.0           286./ 7.5
  48            19.3             62.5           294./ 5.2
  54            19.4             63.2           278./ 6.7
  60            19.6             63.8           289./ 6.0
  66            20.0             64.6           293./ 8.9
  72            20.2             65.1           298./ 4.9
  78            20.4             65.8           284./ 6.3
  84            20.9             66.4           308./ 7.5
  90            21.3             67.0           307./ 7.9
  96            21.7             67.6           307./ 6.3
 102            22.3             68.2           312./ 8.2
 108            22.9             68.8           310./ 8.3
 114            23.5             69.5           311./ 8.6
 120            23.9             70.2           304./ 8.0
 126            24.5             71.0           309./ 8.9





not just west but way farther south ..

00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

open in 2 tabs and toggle back and forth on the last frames..

only a couple hundred miles south and west and a cat 3.. heading 309 ..

[Aric Dunn]

do the same thing for the hwrf..

00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[sgastorm]

They will probably keep moving south and west if what appears to be a center based on the recon data is its location. I am a bit surprised they continue to fly to the NE. The only wind shift was much further to the SW.

[RL3AO]

If the center was reforming under the convection, there wouldn't be southeast flow to the northwest of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

They will probably keep moving south and west if what appears to be a center based on the recon data is its location. I am a bit surprised they continue to fly to the NE. The only wind shift was much further to the SW.

yeah ... i am not yet going to say it reformed southward.. cause anti-poleward re-forms rarely happen..

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020554
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 14 20090902
054500 1832N 05721W 8428 01596 0133 +161 +113 113028 028 027 000 00
054530 1833N 05720W 8429 01595 0136 +157 +114 116028 029 027 000 00
054600 1835N 05720W 8428 01596 0137 +160 +115 116028 030 030 000 03
054630 1836N 05719W 8429 01596 0137 +157 +115 112030 031 032 000 03
054700 1837N 05718W 8425 01600 0140 +152 +116 110030 033 031 001 00
054730 1839N 05717W 8428 01599 0144 +147 +115 110031 033 031 000 00
054800 1840N 05716W 8426 01600 0139 +154 +113 115028 029 029 000 03
054830 1842N 05716W 8425 01602 0138 +155 +112 107028 029 999 999 03
054900 1842N 05718W 8429 01598 0138 +157 +113 106028 028 027 001 03
054930 1841N 05720W 8430 01596 0137 +160 +115 104026 027 031 000 00
055000 1840N 05721W 8430 01594 0136 +158 +116 109027 027 030 000 00
055030 1839N 05723W 8430 01595 0136 +160 +116 105025 026 029 000 00
055100 1838N 05724W 8428 01596 0134 +161 +116 107025 026 030 000 03
055130 1837N 05726W 8434 01590 0136 +159 +116 106025 026 029 000 00
055200 1837N 05726W 8434 01590 0133 +161 +117 104025 025 031 000 03
055230 1835N 05729W 8429 01595 0132 +160 +117 102025 026 029 000 00
055300 1834N 05731W 8432 01593 0134 +158 +118 102026 026 029 000 00
055330 1833N 05732W 8432 01593 0135 +158 +118 104027 028 029 000 00
055400 1832N 05734W 8429 01595 0136 +157 +118 105027 029 029 000 00
055430 1831N 05735W 8429 01593 0131 +160 +118 102025 025 029 000 00
$$
;


Turned around heading back towards the "center"

[Aric Dunn]

can you do a semi zoomed out image ?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA LESS ORGANIZED BUT CENTER APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE
AND SOME OF THE OTHER LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7
WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ERIKA APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER THIS MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERIKA COULD PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 58.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[RL3AO]

[Aric Dunn]

well apparently it either reformed a little farther south or it move wsw for a time

lol
its now at 17N !! from 17.5 N lol

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020604
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 15 20090902
055500 1830N 05737W 8432 01594 0133 +160 +118 098026 027 029 000 00
055530 1829N 05738W 8433 01593 0134 +158 +118 096027 028 029 000 00
055600 1828N 05740W 8428 01598 0135 +159 +118 098027 028 028 000 00
055630 1827N 05741W 8427 01595 0134 +157 +118 097028 028 029 000 00
055700 1825N 05743W 8434 01590 0137 +155 +118 099028 028 030 000 00
055730 1824N 05745W 8424 01600 0138 +152 +118 103028 029 028 000 00
055800 1823N 05746W 8428 01594 0135 +155 +118 104028 030 028 001 00
055830 1822N 05748W 8430 01592 0135 +155 +118 094029 030 030 000 00
055900 1821N 05749W 8421 01601 0135 +154 +117 107027 028 027 000 03
055930 1820N 05749W 8432 01590 0135 +154 +117 103027 028 031 000 00
060000 1818N 05750W 8429 01592 0135 +152 +116 105026 027 032 000 00
060030 1816N 05750W 8429 01592 0135 +153 +115 107026 027 030 000 00
060100 1815N 05750W 8432 01590 0135 +153 +115 106027 028 030 000 00
060130 1813N 05750W 8429 01593 0133 +156 +114 105029 029 030 000 00
060200 1812N 05750W 8429 01591 0131 +160 +115 105027 028 031 000 00
060230 1810N 05751W 8430 01590 0131 +160 +115 105026 027 031 000 00
060300 1810N 05751W 8430 01590 0130 +160 +116 110023 024 028 000 00
060330 1807N 05751W 8430 01589 0128 +160 +117 113023 024 028 000 00
060400 1805N 05751W 8430 01590 0130 +158 +118 115024 024 026 000 00
060430 1804N 05751W 8432 01589 0127 +161 +119 117022 024 027 000 03
$$
;


I wonder if they are going to sample the heaviest convection this time.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020614
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 16 20090902
060500 1802N 05752W 8428 01593 0124 +166 +119 124023 023 025 000 00
060530 1801N 05753W 8425 01591 0121 +167 +120 125023 023 024 000 00
060600 1759N 05754W 8430 01588 0124 +165 +121 121023 024 025 000 00
060630 1758N 05754W 8430 01588 0125 +161 +122 120024 025 025 000 00
060700 1756N 05755W 8428 01589 0127 +158 +122 117025 025 025 000 00
060730 1755N 05756W 8430 01584 0123 +163 +122 121024 025 026 000 03
060800 1754N 05757W 8432 01584 0126 +156 +121 118026 027 025 001 00
060830 1753N 05759W 8430 01584 0128 +151 +120 120027 027 025 000 00
060900 1751N 05800W 8430 01583 0126 +154 +118 122028 028 024 001 00
060930 1750N 05801W 8426 01587 0118 +165 +115 116025 027 024 001 00
061000 1749N 05803W 8434 01578 0116 +169 +114 110025 026 025 002 00
061030 1748N 05804W 8426 01585 0114 +169 +114 107024 026 025 002 00
061100 1747N 05805W 8431 01581 0113 +172 +114 107023 023 026 000 00
061130 1745N 05807W 8429 01582 0115 +166 +114 112026 028 026 000 00
061200 1744N 05808W 8429 01582 0116 +164 +115 113027 029 027 000 03
061230 1743N 05809W 8431 01581 0120 +157 +116 118028 029 027 000 00
061300 1741N 05809W 8425 01583 0118 +157 +116 125027 028 025 001 00
061330 1740N 05810W 8422 01588 0119 +154 +116 128030 032 028 006 00
061400 1738N 05811W 8425 01580 0113 +160 +114 119029 030 025 004 00
061430 1737N 05811W 8432 01576 0114 +161 +114 123029 030 028 001 00
$$
;