ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I was just reading online the "Vocero" one of PR's top newspapers.

It said that hurricane hunters were going out at 2 a.m. (a few hours ago) and again at 8 a.m. this morning.

Has anyone heard what they found at 2?

Last VDM has a pressure of 1005mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 020819 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/07:42:20Z
B. 16 deg 25 min N
059 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1487 m
D. 26 kt
E. 325 deg 76 nm
F. 055 deg 31 kt
G. 326 deg 81 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 21 C / 1527 m
J. 18 C / 1525 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 34 KT SE QUAD 08:12:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 323 / 65 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

But like I said the center is further southwest then they had thought when preparing for the mission. They got into the system and started setting up for their first pass and almost as soon as they started they went through the center.

[vegastar]

URNT15 KNHC 020804
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 27 20090902
075500 1556N 05839W 8427 01568 0099 +160 +125 254017 017 025 006 00
075530 1555N 05838W 8445 01550 0109 +147 +125 244018 019 029 020 03
075600 1553N 05836W 8416 01579 0101 +161 +125 238018 020 019 011 00
075630 1552N 05835W 8430 01567 0095 +174 +124 244018 018 015 000 00
075700 1551N 05834W 8430 01568 0097 +173 +125 248016 017 009 000 00
075730 1550N 05833W 8431 01568 0097 +173 +128 249015 016 012 000 00
075800 1548N 05832W 8430 01571 0101 +167 +131 255014 015 018 006 00
075830 1547N 05830W 8444 01556 0106 +161 +134 261016 017 015 003 00
075900 1546N 05829W 8422 01579 0110 +157 +133 249015 016 019 007 00
075930 1545N 05828W 8415 01583 0106 +161 +132 248017 019 019 006 00
080000 1544N 05827W 8443 01556 0103 +166 +131 250016 017 013 005 00
080030 1542N 05825W 8427 01575 0101 +170 +130 250017 017 012 000 00
080100 1541N 05824W 8430 01571 0102 +170 +132 251018 019 012 001 00
080130 1540N 05823W 8429 01572 0101 +170 +134 253018 019 015 000 00
080200 1539N 05822W 8432 01569 0100 +170 +136 255019 019 018 000 03
080230 1537N 05820W 8428 01573 0099 +170 +138 254020 020 015 000 00
080300 1536N 05819W 8432 01569 0099 +170 +140 254022 023 016 000 00
080330 1535N 05818W 8430 01571 0101 +165 +142 255022 024 014 000 00
080400 1534N 05817W 8433 01567 0101 +165 +142 259019 020 019 002 00
080430 1532N 05816W 8426 01573 0104 +160 +141 259022 024 021 004 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020814
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 28 20090902
080500 1531N 05814W 8434 01567 0101 +168 +139 254024 025 025 005 00
080530 1530N 05813W 8429 01571 0110 +150 +137 255026 027 032 013 00
080600 1528N 05812W 8423 01573 0107 +152 +135 251023 024 034 009 00
080630 1527N 05811W 8425 01572 0101 +162 +133 256023 027 035 012 03
080700 1526N 05809W 8443 01555 0110 +148 +132 245026 027 029 015 03
080730 1525N 05808W 8423 01574 0110 +147 +130 245029 029 031 015 00
080800 1524N 05807W 8433 01565 0106 +156 +128 244029 029 031 009 00
080830 1522N 05806W 8428 01571 0102 +164 +126 244029 029 027 006 00
080900 1521N 05804W 8429 01569 0097 +170 +126 245030 030 024 002 00
080930 1520N 05803W 8431 01569 0103 +164 +127 244030 031 024 002 00
081000 1519N 05802W 8429 01571 0102 +166 +128 241029 029 023 004 00
081030 1517N 05801W 8430 01571 0101 +170 +129 243030 030 016 002 00
081100 1516N 05800W 8428 01573 0101 +168 +131 242030 031 016 003 00
081130 1515N 05758W 8435 01566 0100 +170 +132 232029 030 019 001 00
081200 1514N 05757W 8428 01572 0105 +160 +134 233032 033 020 004 00
081230 1512N 05756W 8431 01568 0111 +149 +135 230033 034 027 017 00
081300 1511N 05755W 8427 01574 0101 +168 +134 228031 032 021 008 00
081330 1510N 05754W 8428 01573 0099 +172 +133 226029 030 022 000 00
081400 1509N 05752W 8396 01602 0106 +162 +135 222030 034 031 015 00
081430 1508N 05751W 8441 01557 0108 +154 +137 220030 030 033 012 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020824
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 29 20090902
081500 1507N 05750W 8429 01569 0110 +150 +136 223031 032 029 013 03
081530 1507N 05748W 8434 01564 0102 +162 +135 223030 031 999 999 03
081600 1508N 05748W 8425 01574 0100 +167 +135 225025 026 025 006 03
081630 1510N 05748W 8441 01555 0101 +164 +136 232025 026 029 008 00
081700 1512N 05749W 8453 01555 0107 +168 +137 220024 026 024 008 03
081730 1514N 05749W 8414 01592 0108 +163 +138 225025 026 029 006 00
081800 1515N 05749W 8433 01572 0111 +158 +140 220025 026 034 010 00
081830 1517N 05750W 8431 01573 0108 +158 +141 219025 027 051 018 03
081900 1519N 05750W 8444 01557 0113 +139 +139 261008 014 046 054 03
081930 1521N 05750W 8446 01547 0112 +136 +136 317010 013 054 058 03
082000 1522N 05750W 8430 01568 0116 +136 +136 344009 011 054 057 00
082030 1524N 05749W 8434 01563 0118 +135 +133 019015 018 054 051 00
082100 1525N 05749W 8431 01567 0119 +135 +129 022011 014 053 049 00
082130 1527N 05749W 8429 01574 0123 +132 +126 077017 021 051 036 00
082200 1528N 05749W 8431 01569 0124 +131 +124 089025 028 046 033 03
082230 1530N 05749W 8429 01572 0123 +133 +122 087028 030 030 034 03
082300 1531N 05748W 8428 01575 0128 +134 +120 084029 030 037 026 00
082330 1533N 05748W 8426 01578 0124 +136 +119 077025 028 045 026 00
082400 1535N 05748W 8432 01572 0124 +135 +119 068018 020 046 023 00
082430 1536N 05748W 8429 01573 0124 +135 +118 057015 017 039 021 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020834
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 30 20090902
082500 1538N 05748W 8425 01575 0120 +139 +118 039008 009 032 013 00
082530 1539N 05748W 8425 01575 0118 +143 +118 028005 006 034 013 00
082600 1541N 05748W 8429 01572 0118 +141 +118 317001 005 032 014 00
082630 1543N 05748W 8431 01569 0111 +152 +118 088001 003 026 010 00
082700 1544N 05748W 8433 01567 0105 +161 +119 024004 007 025 008 00
082730 1546N 05748W 8426 01574 0106 +160 +120 049004 008 022 008 00
082800 1548N 05748W 8423 01578 0116 +145 +122 042006 008 021 012 00
082830 1549N 05748W 8432 01568 0116 +144 +122 290002 003 022 013 00
082900 1551N 05748W 8431 01569 0108 +156 +123 236002 004 020 008 00
082930 1553N 05748W 8427 01573 0098 +173 +123 241004 006 018 005 00
083000 1554N 05748W 8432 01567 0099 +168 +125 265006 007 019 006 00
083030 1556N 05748W 8421 01574 0100 +164 +128 203003 007 021 004 00
083100 1558N 05748W 8430 01568 0098 +169 +130 229005 006 022 003 00
083130 1559N 05748W 8430 01568 0097 +170 +132 234005 006 025 003 00
083200 1601N 05748W 8425 01572 0096 +170 +135 223006 007 026 003 00
083230 1603N 05748W 8432 01566 0096 +169 +138 222008 008 026 004 00
083300 1604N 05748W 8429 01569 0095 +170 +140 222008 009 026 003 00
083330 1606N 05748W 8432 01567 0091 +175 +141 238007 007 025 003 00
083400 1608N 05748W 8425 01572 0089 +180 +142 244007 007 026 001 00
083430 1610N 05748W 8430 01567 0089 +180 +144 245008 008 024 002 00
$$

[jlauderdal]

ericka seems in no hurry to move, i am going to avoid falling into the IR trap and start making conclusions on movement but the longer it sits the more the modeling will be suspect.

[jlauderdal]

ericka seems in no hurry to move, i am going to avoid falling into the IR trap and start making conclusions on movement but the longer it sits the more the modeling will be suspect.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This just shows why I think it doesn't stand a chance at passing to the north of the islands. According to the 2am forecast track the current location as of 2am was south of where it should have been by alot. Now even if it were to follow the movement forecasted Erika would still pass through the Northern most islands.

[vegastar]

URNT15 KNHC 020844
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 31 20090902
083500 1611N 05748W 8434 01565 0087 +180 +147 227006 006 026 001 00
083530 1613N 05748W 8428 01572 0090 +179 +149 204005 005 027 001 00
083600 1615N 05748W 8429 01571 0093 +175 +151 181004 004 025 002 00
083630 1616N 05748W 8429 01569 0091 +176 +153 181005 006 028 001 00
083700 1618N 05748W 8433 01567 0093 +178 +154 189005 005 028 002 00
083730 1620N 05748W 8425 01574 0092 +180 +155 180005 006 029 002 00
083800 1621N 05748W 8436 01565 0092 +180 +156 144007 009 029 002 00
083830 1623N 05748W 8424 01576 0091 +179 +156 137009 009 030 001 00
083900 1625N 05748W 8434 01566 0090 +180 +157 135008 009 030 001 00
083930 1627N 05748W 8427 01573 0089 +180 +157 125009 010 029 001 00
084000 1628N 05748W 8433 01566 0088 +180 +157 128009 009 030 001 00
084030 1630N 05748W 8430 01569 0087 +184 +157 114009 010 031 001 00
084100 1632N 05748W 8427 01572 0085 +186 +158 110009 009 031 002 00
084130 1633N 05748W 8433 01565 0086 +185 +159 114009 009 030 002 00
084200 1635N 05748W 8430 01569 0086 +185 +159 112009 010 031 002 00
084230 1637N 05748W 8429 01568 0083 +190 +160 114014 015 031 003 00
084300 1638N 05748W 8433 01567 0085 +187 +160 119015 015 031 002 00
084330 1640N 05748W 8426 01573 0084 +186 +161 116016 017 030 003 00
084400 1642N 05748W 8433 01566 0085 +185 +161 112017 017 031 003 00
084430 1644N 05748W 8429 01571 0085 +185 +162 109018 019 033 002 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020854
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 32 20090902
084500 1645N 05748W 8429 01567 0085 +185 +162 109020 020 032 002 00
084530 1647N 05748W 8429 01568 0086 +182 +162 113020 020 032 003 00
084600 1649N 05748W 8426 01571 0086 +181 +161 115020 020 032 003 00
084630 1650N 05748W 8432 01567 0090 +178 +161 119019 019 033 002 00
084700 1652N 05748W 8430 01568 0090 +175 +160 119019 019 032 002 00
084730 1654N 05748W 8429 01569 0093 +174 +159 119019 019 033 003 00
084800 1656N 05748W 8431 01569 0094 +175 +158 113020 020 032 004 00
084830 1657N 05748W 8427 01572 0094 +175 +157 111021 021 034 002 00
084900 1659N 05748W 8430 01569 0096 +172 +156 112022 022 032 003 00
084930 1701N 05748W 8430 01569 0095 +171 +155 112023 023 033 003 00
085000 1703N 05748W 8433 01568 0099 +169 +154 111022 022 033 003 00
085030 1704N 05748W 8425 01577 0100 +166 +153 110023 023 033 002 00
085100 1706N 05748W 8434 01567 0102 +164 +152 111023 023 032 003 00
085130 1708N 05748W 8428 01576 0105 +160 +151 112024 024 032 002 00
085200 1709N 05748W 8428 01574 0107 +160 +150 114024 025 031 003 00
085230 1711N 05748W 8431 01573 0109 +159 +149 114025 025 029 004 00
085300 1713N 05748W 8430 01574 0109 +159 +147 113025 025 028 004 00
085330 1715N 05748W 8433 01571 0109 +159 +146 113025 025 030 003 00
085400 1716N 05748W 8428 01578 0112 +157 +145 113025 025 030 003 00
085430 1718N 05748W 8426 01579 0112 +156 +144 110027 028 029 003 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020904
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 33 20090902
085500 1720N 05748W 8430 01578 0113 +155 +143 113027 028 029 002 00
085530 1722N 05748W 8426 01580 0114 +155 +142 117027 027 029 003 03
085600 1723N 05748W 8433 01574 0116 +155 +141 118029 030 029 001 03
085630 1725N 05748W 8433 01574 0117 +154 +140 119031 033 029 003 03
085700 1727N 05748W 8438 01573 0119 +155 +140 119032 033 029 004 00
085730 1729N 05748W 8424 01587 0121 +154 +139 120030 031 031 002 00
085800 1730N 05748W 8427 01584 0123 +152 +138 122034 038 031 003 00
085830 1732N 05748W 8434 01578 0123 +154 +137 121033 035 030 002 00
085900 1734N 05748W 8433 01579 0126 +150 +136 123035 037 028 003 00
085930 1736N 05748W 8433 01582 0125 +153 +136 123036 037 028 003 00
090000 1738N 05747W 8429 01585 0125 +153 +135 123036 037 028 003 00
090030 1739N 05747W 8434 01580 0124 +155 +135 123037 037 028 002 00
090100 1741N 05747W 8429 01585 0125 +154 +135 124037 038 029 001 00
090130 1743N 05747W 8434 01581 0123 +155 +135 127034 035 999 999 03
090200 1743N 05746W 8429 01587 0125 +155 +135 130032 033 999 999 03
090230 1742N 05746W 8432 01583 0126 +151 +136 125034 035 999 999 03
090300 1741N 05747W 8428 01588 0127 +151 +137 120033 033 026 004 00
090330 1741N 05749W 8430 01584 0125 +155 +137 119033 033 029 003 00
090400 1740N 05751W 8432 01583 0123 +155 +137 119032 032 028 003 00
090430 1739N 05753W 8424 01590 0125 +154 +137 121032 033 028 002 03
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020914
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 34 20090902
090500 1738N 05754W 8433 01583 0125 +155 +136 118028 029 028 003 00
090530 1737N 05755W 8428 01589 0125 +155 +136 120029 030 027 003 00
090600 1736N 05757W 8430 01583 0125 +153 +136 111028 030 028 003 00
090630 1734N 05758W 8428 01587 0125 +154 +135 113026 028 028 004 00
090700 1733N 05759W 8429 01585 0127 +151 +135 111028 030 026 004 00
090730 1732N 05800W 8424 01591 0126 +154 +135 110028 029 028 004 00
090800 1731N 05802W 8431 01587 0128 +154 +134 113023 024 028 004 00
090830 1730N 05803W 8426 01591 0127 +156 +133 108023 025 030 003 00
090900 1728N 05804W 8430 01590 0127 +159 +133 110025 029 029 003 00
090930 1727N 05806W 8445 01576 0131 +155 +133 109025 027 028 005 00
091000 1726N 05807W 8427 01593 0128 +156 +133 104023 025 027 004 00
091030 1725N 05808W 8430 01589 0129 +156 +132 108022 022 027 003 00
091100 1723N 05809W 8428 01591 0129 +155 +132 104022 024 027 004 00
091130 1722N 05811W 8437 01582 0127 +157 +132 107019 022 028 004 00
091200 1721N 05812W 8426 01591 0129 +154 +131 104023 025 028 004 00
091230 1720N 05813W 8428 01590 0126 +157 +130 096021 021 027 004 00
091300 1718N 05815W 8430 01587 0124 +161 +129 094023 025 028 002 00
091330 1717N 05816W 8429 01587 0124 +158 +129 096026 027 027 003 00
091400 1716N 05817W 8426 01590 0119 +165 +130 096025 026 027 003 00
091430 1715N 05819W 8425 01590 0114 +175 +132 092026 026 030 001 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 020925
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 35 20090902
091500 1713N 05820W 8429 01587 0117 +168 +134 091025 026 028 003 00
091530 1712N 05821W 8428 01587 0114 +171 +136 090026 027 027 003 00
091600 1711N 05823W 8434 01582 0116 +170 +138 089025 026 027 003 00
091630 1710N 05824W 8424 01591 0115 +171 +139 090025 026 028 003 00
091700 1708N 05825W 8432 01582 0114 +170 +141 095026 027 027 003 00
091730 1707N 05827W 8429 01585 0112 +171 +142 094026 027 026 003 00
091800 1706N 05828W 8433 01579 0112 +171 +143 094023 025 027 004 00
091830 1705N 05829W 8433 01580 0115 +168 +144 094020 021 027 004 00
091900 1703N 05830W 8421 01591 0120 +158 +145 095021 024 030 010 00
091930 1702N 05832W 8424 01587 0120 +155 +143 097024 025 028 011 00
092000 1701N 05833W 8431 01580 0115 +167 +139 084018 022 026 004 00
092030 1700N 05834W 8435 01577 0112 +169 +137 086016 017 028 005 00
092100 1658N 05836W 8432 01578 0113 +164 +137 084018 020 027 004 00
092130 1657N 05837W 8430 01579 0113 +164 +135 083021 023 028 003 00
092200 1656N 05838W 8423 01585 0112 +164 +133 082021 022 027 004 00
092230 1655N 05840W 8440 01569 0123 +147 +133 080021 023 026 004 00
092300 1653N 05841W 8420 01588 0114 +159 +131 090018 019 024 005 00
092330 1652N 05842W 8432 01576 0106 +171 +130 096016 016 024 004 00
092400 1651N 05844W 8433 01574 0107 +171 +131 101013 014 025 003 00
092430 1650N 05845W 8424 01584 0108 +166 +133 112013 015 024 004 00
$$

[knotimpaired]

This just shows why I think it doesn't stand a chance at passing to the north of the islands. According to the 2am forecast track the current location as of 2am was south of where it should have been by alot. Now even if it were to follow the movement forecasted Erika would still pass through the Northern most islands.

I agree, it seems to be sliding south

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

507
URNT15 KNHC 020934
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 36 20090902
092500 1648N 05846W 8430 01578 0107 +170 +134 132013 014 022 003 00
092530 1648N 05846W 8430 01578 0105 +173 +135 127011 012 021 003 00
092600 1646N 05848W 8423 01584 0104 +171 +137 130011 012 020 004 00
092630 1645N 05850W 8434 01572 0104 +174 +140 126010 010 022 002 00
092700 1644N 05851W 8429 01577 0102 +173 +142 124010 010 022 002 00
092730 1643N 05852W 8429 01576 0102 +171 +144 123009 010 023 003 00
092800 1641N 05853W 8433 01572 0100 +172 +146 135009 011 021 003 00
092830 1640N 05855W 8426 01578 0099 +175 +147 129009 010 022 003 00
092900 1639N 05856W 8429 01576 0097 +180 +149 143007 008 021 004 00
092930 1638N 05857W 8430 01572 0095 +178 +150 143006 007 022 003 00
093000 1637N 05858W 8430 01573 0093 +183 +151 108007 007 024 003 00
093030 1635N 05900W 8429 01574 0094 +184 +153 094007 008 025 003 00
093100 1634N 05901W 8421 01580 0100 +169 +154 101007 009 025 006 00
093130 1633N 05902W 8432 01572 0095 +180 +154 059005 005 015 004 03
093200 1632N 05903W 8430 01572 0095 +179 +153 011003 004 011 003 03
093230 1630N 05903W 8436 01568 0100 +169 +153 265002 002 017 004 00
093300 1628N 05902W 8426 01577 0100 +174 +152 200001 002 016 002 00
093330 1627N 05902W 8436 01568 0100 +175 +151 118001 002 009 003 03
093400 1625N 05903W 8422 01582 0098 +175 +151 044002 003 007 003 03
093430 1624N 05904W 8433 01572 0095 +180 +151 013001 002 011 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

Intense precipitation can be expected over the Leeward islands

[Nimbus]

That is interesting that recon found two areas of wind shift. The latest convection is building over the center fix on the NW side so I guess the mystery is solved about dominant centers. If structural problems continue to inhibit development that would be a good thing for Barbuda and the other nearby islands. A weaker Erika might steer further west which doesn't help down the road though. I'm still digesting MW's theory that Jimena may delay the trough. That sounds like a significant event that will effect future model runs. The upper air pattern looks favorable for the moment with the shear from UL to Erikas west moving WSW away.

[HURAKAN]

896
URNT15 KNHC 020944
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 37 20090902
093500 1624N 05904W 8433 01572 0093 +182 +152 210001 002 009 001 00
093530 1622N 05907W 8432 01572 0093 +183 +154 192001 002 010 001 00
093600 1621N 05908W 8426 01577 0093 +180 +156 239002 003 003 003 00
093630 1620N 05910W 8430 01571 0096 +173 +157 227001 002 007 003 00
093700 1619N 05911W 8430 01571 0093 +176 +157 229002 003 011 001 00
093730 1618N 05912W 8429 01572 0094 +177 +156 237003 004 009 002 00
093800 1617N 05913W 8426 01574 0096 +175 +156 257005 005 006 002 00
093830 1615N 05914W 8432 01569 0093 +175 +156 269005 005 005 002 00
093900 1614N 05916W 8430 01571 0092 +175 +156 256005 005 002 003 00
093930 1613N 05917W 8430 01569 0094 +174 +157 246004 005 001 004 00
094000 1612N 05918W 8426 01574 0094 +173 +157 243005 006 008 003 00
094030 1611N 05919W 8430 01568 0092 +176 +156 262007 008 009 002 00
094100 1610N 05920W 8428 01571 0090 +177 +155 261006 006 013 001 00
094130 1608N 05922W 8430 01567 0091 +176 +155 254007 008 007 002 00
094200 1607N 05923W 8426 01571 0091 +175 +155 264007 008 008 002 00
094230 1606N 05924W 8432 01566 0092 +175 +155 265007 008 008 002 00
094300 1605N 05925W 8429 01568 0089 +176 +156 264006 007 007 002 00
094330 1604N 05926W 8430 01566 0088 +180 +156 252008 008 008 002 00
094400 1603N 05927W 8429 01568 0084 +183 +157 266008 008 009 002 00
094430 1602N 05929W 8433 01563 0083 +185 +157 255009 010 008 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

167
URNT12 KNHC 020946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/09:34:40Z
B. 16 deg 24 min N
059 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1502 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 66 nm
F. 119 deg 33 kt
G. 045 deg 107 nm
H. 1009 mb
I. 15 C / 1529 m
J. 18 C / 1528 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 34 KT SE QUAD 08:12:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 024 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[HURAKAN]

865
URNT15 KNHC 020954
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 38 20090902
094500 1600N 05930W 8428 01569 0081 +188 +158 266009 009 005 003 00
094530 1559N 05931W 8436 01560 0081 +189 +159 258010 011 008 002 00
094600 1558N 05932W 8424 01573 0084 +182 +161 263010 010 008 003 00
094630 1557N 05933W 8431 01567 0087 +180 +161 268008 009 008 002 00
094700 1556N 05934W 8430 01568 0089 +180 +160 276009 009 007 003 00
094730 1555N 05936W 8430 01568 0087 +180 +160 274008 009 006 003 00
094800 1554N 05937W 8428 01571 0087 +180 +160 275008 009 011 001 00
094830 1552N 05938W 8432 01566 0084 +185 +160 273008 009 008 002 00
094900 1551N 05939W 8426 01574 0088 +182 +160 277007 008 007 002 00
094930 1550N 05940W 8430 01568 0087 +184 +161 268007 007 010 002 00
095000 1549N 05942W 8429 01569 0088 +181 +161 273007 007 012 001 00
095030 1547N 05943W 8425 01575 0090 +179 +162 274007 007 007 002 00
095100 1546N 05944W 8429 01571 0090 +181 +162 281008 008 005 003 00
095130 1545N 05945W 8429 01572 0092 +178 +162 287007 007 010 002 00
095200 1544N 05947W 8432 01569 0094 +175 +162 279008 008 012 000 00
095230 1542N 05948W 8429 01573 0094 +175 +162 276008 008 012 001 00
095300 1541N 05949W 8429 01573 0095 +175 +161 280008 008 003 003 00
095330 1540N 05951W 8428 01574 0096 +175 +161 281009 009 005 003 00
095400 1539N 05952W 8430 01571 0095 +176 +160 281009 009 008 002 00
095430 1538N 05953W 8428 01573 0095 +175 +160 274009 010 008 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[fd122]

Well it looks as if it will pass near or over us. It's already quite windy and overcast here.

[HURAKAN]

The center keeps jumping!

[jlauderdal]

The center keeps jumping!

no surprise, its not a well developed system, honestly it may never get very well developed based on the environment now and the future

[Evil Jeremy]

Something I find interesting is that the BAMs are once again the southern outliers, while their 00z model run was much farther north. Interesting...

[HURAKAN]

693
URNT15 KNHC 021004
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 39 20090902
095500 1536N 05954W 8432 01571 0095 +175 +160 268009 010 009 002 00
095530 1535N 05956W 8430 01573 0095 +175 +159 271009 010 009 002 00
095600 1534N 05957W 8430 01572 0096 +175 +159 274010 010 007 002 00
095630 1533N 05958W 8430 01573 0095 +179 +159 276011 011 010 001 00
095700 1531N 05959W 8429 01574 0094 +180 +159 277011 012 006 003 00
095730 1530N 06001W 8429 01574 0095 +180 +159 285012 013 011 002 00
095800 1529N 06002W 8429 01574 0097 +175 +160 287012 013 008 002 00
095830 1528N 06003W 8429 01574 0095 +178 +160 284013 013 007 003 00
095900 1526N 06004W 8429 01574 0096 +178 +160 283014 014 009 002 00
095930 1525N 06006W 8429 01575 0099 +175 +160 284015 015 011 002 00
100000 1524N 06007W 8429 01577 0099 +175 +160 281015 015 014 002 00
100030 1523N 06008W 8429 01578 0099 +178 +160 279015 015 010 003 00
100100 1521N 06009W 8430 01577 0100 +176 +160 282015 015 009 003 00
100130 1520N 06011W 8430 01577 0099 +179 +159 285014 014 011 003 00
100200 1519N 06012W 8430 01579 0099 +182 +159 287014 014 013 002 00
100230 1518N 06013W 8428 01582 0102 +179 +159 281013 014 013 002 00
100300 1516N 06014W 8431 01578 0102 +180 +159 280014 014 012 003 00
100330 1515N 06016W 8428 01583 0100 +185 +158 279014 014 011 003 00
100400 1514N 06017W 8430 01582 0102 +183 +159 277013 013 009 002 00
100430 1513N 06018W 8430 01582 0106 +178 +159 281013 013 007 003 00
$$
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