ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[knotimpaired]

Even though,there are no watches or warnings in Puerto Rico,yet,I will start preparations in my home today.

You should do what we do luis.

At the first sign of a storm which was Ana, all plants were pushed back into a corner of the patio (what a task!) literally everything outside is put into storage. The only thing remaining outside is the table and chairs and 2 chaise loungers and if necessary they will go in the pool.

It stays that way till the end of the season. It may look bare outside but it beats taking everything back and forth.

[KatDaddy]

Looks to me Erika will try to reform under the deep convection. Also of note is a more W motion overnight. Of interest will be the current trough. Will a ridge build in as the trough moves E into the Atlantic over the Labor Day weekend? I have noticed some W bending of models as Erika approaches the Bahamas. We shall see.

[fci]

Looks to me Erika will try to reform under the deep convection. Also of note is a more W motion overnight. Of interest will be the current trough. Will a ridge build in as the trough moves E into the Atlantic over the Labor Day weekend? I have noticed some W bending of models as Erika approaches the Bahamas. We shall see.

Seems like the westward bending is based upon a weak system, a broad low pressure and if Erika remains at storm status it goes further north. GFS has had it this way for a while.

[banksmanforever]

Thunder and rain in Barbados

[HURAKAN]

751
URNT15 KNHC 021104
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 45 20090902
105500 1530N 05813W 8429 01588 0120 +167 +133 209016 017 025 008 00
105530 1531N 05815W 8428 01588 0121 +164 +133 212017 018 023 007 00
105600 1532N 05816W 8426 01588 0116 +169 +133 214017 018 024 007 00
105630 1534N 05817W 8427 01588 0125 +153 +133 216017 017 023 006 00
105700 1535N 05818W 8419 01595 0126 +150 +133 175013 016 024 010 03
105730 1536N 05819W 8438 01577 0125 +154 +132 215012 014 022 009 03
105800 1538N 05820W 8429 01584 0117 +164 +131 222013 014 022 005 00
105830 1539N 05821W 8431 01582 0118 +164 +130 215011 013 021 006 00
105900 1540N 05822W 8427 01585 0125 +149 +129 208017 018 024 007 00
105930 1541N 05824W 8433 01575 0126 +144 +129 197014 018 025 009 03
110000 1542N 05825W 8441 01568 0124 +147 +128 190014 017 027 008 00
110030 1543N 05826W 8429 01584 0121 +154 +127 173011 013 029 007 00
110100 1545N 05828W 8430 01577 0119 +152 +127 160012 016 030 007 00
110130 1546N 05829W 8436 01572 0114 +161 +127 179014 017 028 005 00
110200 1547N 05830W 8431 01574 0114 +158 +127 181017 018 029 004 00
110230 1549N 05831W 8437 01568 0120 +148 +127 174014 016 030 006 00
110300 1550N 05832W 8434 01572 0117 +152 +128 204013 015 029 006 00
110330 1551N 05834W 8425 01580 0106 +168 +128 203013 015 028 004 00
110400 1552N 05835W 8432 01572 0115 +152 +129 205012 018 028 005 00
110430 1554N 05836W 8422 01580 0111 +158 +129 209016 017 029 004 00
$$
;

[banksmanforever]

Falling real heavy now and very windy

[Normandy]

The findings from recon are very interesting, and show that Erika has multiple areas of wind shifts. They recently found another under all the deep convection way southeast of the other previous two. Must be causing the NHC some real frustration lol.

[HURAKAN]

Erika

[HURAKAN]

[jlauderdal]

Erika

that pic would scare darth vader, this stalling and west shift models has to be cause for concern

[knotimpaired]

Mods, maybe we should open up a obs page for Erica.

[HURAKAN]

966
URNT15 KNHC 021114
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 46 20090902
110500 1555N 05837W 8440 01563 0108 +164 +129 203018 019 028 004 00
110530 1556N 05838W 8427 01577 0114 +155 +130 195015 019 030 006 00
110600 1557N 05840W 8439 01565 0109 +162 +130 216014 015 031 005 00
110630 1558N 05841W 8428 01578 0111 +159 +131 219013 014 030 005 00
110700 1600N 05842W 8426 01579 0113 +155 +131 210013 015 030 005 00
110730 1601N 05843W 8423 01583 0110 +161 +131 201014 017 031 005 00
110800 1602N 05844W 8426 01578 0103 +171 +131 207018 018 028 005 00
110830 1603N 05845W 8427 01577 0107 +163 +133 198018 020 031 009 00
110900 1605N 05847W 8429 01574 0110 +159 +134 188016 019 035 019 03
110930 1606N 05848W 8451 01550 0115 +148 +135 207012 015 048 031 00
111000 1607N 05849W 8402 01603 0116 +149 +135 214011 014 043 023 00
111030 1608N 05850W 8421 01585 0114 +155 +134 191013 014 036 014 00
111100 1610N 05851W 8432 01571 0109 +159 +134 184012 013 033 008 03
111130 1611N 05853W 8444 01560 0106 +167 +133 194015 015 999 999 03
111200 1612N 05854W 8421 01583 0102 +171 +133 192014 015 999 999 03
111230 1613N 05855W 8433 01568 0099 +174 +134 189014 014 999 999 03
111300 1615N 05856W 8433 01569 0107 +161 +136 190011 012 999 999 03
111330 1616N 05858W 8429 01573 0100 +172 +137 191013 013 999 999 03
111400 1617N 05859W 8432 01571 0102 +168 +138 189011 012 999 999 03
111430 1618N 05900W 8428 01574 0111 +155 +139 182012 013 999 999 03
$$
;

[attallaman]

06z GFS landfall at looks like the Broward County Florida area:

At what strength and is there any possibility the system would cross over FL and enter the GOM?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Last night:


Now:


It appears the Leeward Islands and potentially down the road, Puerto Rico, are going to get a lot of rain from Erika

[gatorcane]

wow the GFS sure does bring a TS now into Southern FL. That is the strongest it has shown the system into Southern FL, previously it was just a wave passing through.

[HURAKAN]

803
URNT15 KNHC 021125
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 47 20090902
111500 1620N 05901W 8429 01573 0113 +151 +139 176010 011 999 999 03
111530 1621N 05902W 8429 01574 0113 +151 +138 180010 011 999 999 03
111600 1622N 05904W 8440 01561 0107 +160 +137 191008 010 999 999 03
111630 1623N 05905W 8429 01574 0113 +150 +137 177007 010 999 999 03
111700 1624N 05906W 8425 01577 0099 +173 +136 186005 006 999 999 03
111730 1625N 05908W 8426 01574 0110 +153 +137 168006 008 999 999 03
111800 1625N 05910W 8424 01577 0102 +165 +137 170004 006 999 999 03
111830 1626N 05911W 8432 01569 0098 +172 +137 158003 004 011 003 00
111900 1626N 05913W 8428 01574 0098 +175 +138 149006 006 010 003 00
111930 1627N 05915W 8433 01567 0097 +174 +141 157006 006 014 002 00
112000 1627N 05916W 8426 01574 0096 +175 +144 139006 007 009 003 00
112030 1628N 05918W 8430 01571 0096 +175 +147 131007 007 010 003 00
112100 1628N 05920W 8433 01566 0094 +171 +149 130006 006 009 003 03
112130 1627N 05921W 8427 01572 0092 +175 +152 134004 005 020 000 03
112200 1627N 05923W 8432 01566 0093 +173 +154 126004 005 999 999 03
112230 1626N 05924W 8429 01569 0092 +174 +154 101003 003 999 999 03
112300 1625N 05926W 8429 01569 0089 +177 +154 087004 005 999 999 03
112330 1624N 05927W 8437 01560 0088 +180 +155 080006 008 999 999 03
112400 1624N 05929W 8432 01566 0086 +181 +156 088008 008 999 999 03
112430 1625N 05930W 8429 01567 0085 +183 +159 080009 010 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]