ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[colbroe]

Good morning to all i live on the island of Barbados and it has been raining steadily in the East of the island for the last half of an hour , with heavy claps of thunder .
Looking at the satellite pictures seem like we will be getting this type of weather for the next few hours , good thing Erica is passing to our North .
Will keep you up dated

[ExBailbonds]

wow the GFS sure does bring a TS now into Southern FL. That is the strongest it has shown the system into Southern FL, previously it was just a wave passing through.

Yep this has been a fun one huh. thats why i comented yesturday on one of your posts but it got took the wrong way by FCI and i got blasted by him.

[Gustywind]

Just hearing the radio (the weather forecast)... given the local forecaster it seems that Guadeloupe could be on a direct threat right now, and an yellow alert should be imminent and even an orange code during the day... I will confirm this but busy 24H adhead...Let's wait and see what pan's out with this Fat and mysterious Lady ERIKA.

[perk]

wow the GFS sure does bring a TS now into Southern FL. That is the strongest it has shown the system into Southern FL, previously it was just a wave passing through.

So gator are you still feeling confident about that recurve scenario you've been pushing the last couple of days.

[Gustywind]

Re bursting a bit?

[HURAKAN]

640
URNT15 KNHC 021134
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 48 20090902
112500 1625N 05932W 8430 01567 0084 +180 +161 083009 010 999 999 03
112530 1626N 05934W 8430 01566 0081 +185 +162 077011 012 999 999 03
112600 1626N 05935W 8424 01573 0083 +185 +163 073012 012 999 999 03
112630 1627N 05937W 8418 01580 0085 +184 +165 074013 013 999 999 03
112700 1628N 05939W 8429 01568 0084 +185 +167 073013 013 999 999 03
112730 1629N 05942W 8430 01568 0084 +185 +170 068014 015 999 999 03
112800 1629N 05944W 8429 01569 0085 +185 +173 064015 015 999 999 03
112830 1630N 05946W 8429 01569 0084 +188 +176 072015 016 999 999 03
112900 1631N 05948W 8430 01571 0084 +186 +179 076016 018 999 999 03
112930 1632N 05950W 8429 01571 0084 +184 +181 074018 019 999 999 03
113000 1632N 05952W 8433 01566 0083 +184 +183 064019 019 999 999 03
113030 1633N 05955W 8427 01571 0084 +180 +180 065019 020 999 999 03
113100 1634N 05957W 8427 01569 0087 +177 +177 071020 020 999 999 03
113130 1635N 05959W 8428 01571 0090 +175 +175 071021 022 999 999 03
113200 1635N 06001W 8430 01568 0092 +172 +172 070021 022 999 999 03
113230 1636N 06003W 8430 01566 0088 +175 +175 067019 019 999 999 03
113300 1637N 06006W 8430 01566 0090 +171 +171 069020 021 999 999 03
113330 1638N 06008W 8430 01565 0091 +169 +169 072021 021 999 999 03
113400 1638N 06010W 8430 01563 9990 +137 +999 075021 022 999 999 05
113430 1639N 06012W 8430 01565 0102 +141 +141 074024 026 999 999 05
$$
;

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFDL Shifts WAY west...After Just missing PR it heads west thru the southern Bahamas..

[Aquawind]

Erika is looking a bit like Danny..Year of the shear sounds about right thus far when in Nino conditions.. That convective blob is no guarantee to follow the LLC. Once the LLC decides to move along we will get a better picture of Erika. The shear enviroment ahead and Erika's intensity concern me. Will the shear be there later in the period? Erika/blob looks like it has great outflow in the upper levels but mid level shear is keep it displaced?

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...



SUN-WED...BROAD TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER THE CTRL-ERN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER FL. AT THE
SFC...LGT ERLY FLOW SEEMS LKLY TO PREVAIL THRU THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH POPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMO. MAIN CAVEAT W/R/T
THE XTD RANGE FCST WILL BE EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA" CURRENTLY NEAR
THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT NHC FCST PLACES SYSTEM AT 24.5N
71.0W AS A 45KT T.S. SUN EVENING...AND IN A FAIRLY HOSTILE U/L
ENVIRONMENT. THIS MIGHT ARGUE FOR A LESS COHERENT T.C. THAN WHAT THE
USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECM SUGGESTS...AND PERHAPS A CLOSER APPROACH
TO THE BAHAMA CHAIN. IN FACT...WHILE THE 00Z ECM STILL GOES WITH A
RECURVE SCENARIO...IT DOES SO ABOUT 3 DEGREES FARTHER WEST (75W AS
OPPOSED TO 72W). WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THRU NEXT WEEK. AS
ALWAYS...PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS/DISCUSSIONS ON T.S.
ERIKA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.





SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Last night:


Now:


It appears the Leeward Islands and potentially down the road, Puerto Rico, are going to get a lot of rain from Erika

Yes,that south shift will cause Puerto Rico to be in bulls eye.I can forsee a massive flooding event,if it moves slowly thru our area.

[HURAKAN]

436
UZNT13 KNHC 021141
XXAA 52118 99164 70594 04269 99010 26815 17009 00091 26011 17509
92777 22008 17509 85510 19820 11505 88999 77999
31313 09608 81123
61616 AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 15
62626 SPL 1641N05944W 1125 MBL WND 18010 AEV 20801 DLM WND 16008
009843 WL150 17509 085 REL 1641N05944W 112312 SPG 1641N05944W 112
520 =
XXBB 52118 99164 70594 04269 00010 26815 11875 19606 22850 19820
33846 20623 44843 18026
21212 00010 17009 11963 18010 22854 13006 33843 08005
31313 09608 81123
61616 AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 15
62626 SPL 1641N05944W 1125 MBL WND 18010 AEV 20801 DLM WND 16008
009843 WL150 17509 085 REL 1641N05944W 112312 SPG 1641N05944W 112
520 =
;

presure 1010 mb

[Aquawind]

I think that large persistant blob of convection not directly associated with the LLC could be causing the models some problems.. GFS convective interference problem?

[HURAKAN]

812
URNT12 KNHC 021143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/11:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 24 min N
059 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1495 m
D. 24 kt
E. 114 deg 42 nm
F. 215 deg 24 kt
G. 128 deg 98 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 17 C / 1520 m
J. 18 C / 1516 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 33 KT NE QUAD 09:02:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[HURAKAN]

763
URNT15 KNHC 021144
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 49 20090902
113500 1640N 06014W 8427 01569 0101 +151 +151 083018 020 999 999 03
113530 1641N 06016W 8431 01565 0098 +162 +155 079016 017 999 999 03
113600 1642N 06019W 8434 01561 0102 +156 +152 073016 017 999 999 03
113630 1642N 06021W 8429 01569 0094 +172 +149 071018 019 999 999 03
113700 1643N 06023W 8429 01569 0093 +175 +150 070017 017 999 999 03
113730 1644N 06025W 8428 01571 0092 +175 +154 069017 018 999 999 03
113800 1645N 06027W 8429 01569 0093 +172 +160 068018 018 999 999 03
113830 1645N 06030W 8430 01568 0093 +175 +163 068019 019 999 999 03
113900 1646N 06032W 8429 01569 0093 +174 +165 070019 019 999 999 03
113930 1647N 06034W 8430 01568 0093 +171 +169 079018 019 999 999 03
114000 1648N 06037W 8431 01568 0093 +172 +172 084021 023 999 999 03
114030 1648N 06039W 8428 01571 0094 +170 +170 084025 025 999 999 03
114100 1649N 06041W 8430 01567 0094 +170 +170 084025 025 999 999 03
114130 1650N 06044W 8427 01571 0093 +170 +170 087025 026 999 999 03
114200 1650N 06046W 8430 01568 0095 +169 +169 086027 028 999 999 03
114230 1651N 06049W 8430 01571 0096 +170 +170 085028 028 999 999 03
114300 1652N 06051W 8429 01572 0097 +170 +170 085029 029 999 999 03
114330 1653N 06053W 8429 01576 0099 +172 +172 084030 031 999 999 03
114400 1654N 06056W 8429 01576 0100 +173 +173 081031 032 999 999 03
114430 1655N 06058W 8431 01576 0100 +172 +172 079031 032 999 999 03
$$
;

[O Town]

ANIMATE

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

812
URNT12 KNHC 021143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/11:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 24 min N
059 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1495 m
D. 24 kt
E. 114 deg 42 nm
F. 215 deg 24 kt
G. 128 deg 98 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 17 C / 1520 m
J. 18 C / 1516 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 33 KT NE QUAD 09:02:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

Yesterday it was 51 knots in the NE Quad, now just 33 knots. Erika is a crazy puzzle

[HURAKAN]

994
WTNT31 KNHC 021150
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A LITTLE
WEAKER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
RELOCATED TO NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 59.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[gatorcane]

06z GFDL Shifts WAY west...After Just missing PR it heads west thru the southern Bahamas..

Yes it does. The system bends back west towards SE Bahamas, maybe Southern FL thereafter? The models are apparently starting to sniff out a building Azores-Bermuda High ridge is my guess.

Very interesting this needs to be closely watched of course. Let's see if other models start to jump on board but this large shift west is quite a surprise.

The 06Z HWRF also bends back west at the end but at a slightly higher lattitude towards Central Bahamas. But the HWRF has had a right bias all summer it seems.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation