ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Air Force Met]

Convection appears to be bursting over the LLC

Which LLC lol? How many are there?

LLC...or at least a vort max...is very evident on hi res vis. Its about to move over Guadeloupe and is moving SW. Right now its at 16.6/61.3.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-59&width=2800&height=2000&zoom=1&numframes=4&info=vis&type=Animation

[HURAKAN]

You never know, but there my not be much left of Erika for models to track in another 24hrs, She looks very disorganized.

Erika is disorganized but the environment, at least at the moment, doesn't look hostile.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ah, that LLC.

Anyways, I am really looking forward to the next NHC discussion, and also the promets' opinions Erika this morning. AFM, what are your thoughts on Erika right now?

[caribsue]

good morning
It's looks like St Maarten is under the gun too.
Using stormcarib.com how close can it get, using current forecast positions, the results for st. maarten are :

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W): The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.4N, 63.0W or about 27.9 miles (44.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 36.4 hours (Thursday, September 3 at 5:24PM

Like Luis, I am concerned about the flooding possibilities. Even a heavy thunderstorm can give us minor flooding.

Barbara

Barbara
In Barbados right now we are getting heavy rains and strong winds with high gusts during showers all related to Madame Erika.... and we are at 13N 59W

[wxman57]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/RECON/200.jpg

Convection appears to be bursting over the LLC

Which LLC lol? How many are there?

LLC...or at least a vort max...is very evident on hi res vis. Its about to move over Guadeloupe and is moving SW. Right now its at 16.6/61.3.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-59&width=2800&height=2000&zoom=1&numframes=4&info=vis&type=Animation

Yeah, I was about to point that out, AFM. Near 16.8N/61.5W on an image I just received. It's moving away from the convection. The obs I've been looking at make more sense with a center near Guadeloupe. If this is Erika's center, then it's quite disorganized.

[Normandy]

Looking at these maps, I would say Erika is FAR from being very disorganized. Great Low Level Convergence, along with good Upper divergence and little shear will get this think cranking today. I think it went through some center reformations overnight which explains the SW motion.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[gatorcane]

So far the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are getting this right as far as not organizing her anytime soon. Of course that means she will drift west with the low-level flow for the time being. She's also on the SW periphery of the Azores-Bermuda High ridge...

[Air Force Met]

Ah, that LLC.

Anyways, I am really looking forward to the next NHC discussion, and also the promets' opinions Erika this morning. AFM, what are your thoughts on Erika right now?

ITs a gyre with multiple centers. The one that is seen in vis and moving SW is rotating around a broader circulation. I imagine we will see that vort max get spit out and another center get consolidated closer to the convection. Since Erika is not in any hurry to go anywhere...that will make reformation of the center easier.

[wxman57]

The satellite image in this surface plot is a little old, but you can clearly see the LLC near northern Guadeloupe Island. Obs all around fit THAT as being the real center of Erika. I don't see any evidence on satellite or surface obs of a large gyre with multiple vortices now.

Have I mentioned that I hate storms like this lately?

[Air Force Met]

Yeah, I was about to point that out, AFM. Near 16.8N/61.5W on an image I just received. It's moving away from the convection. The obs I've been looking at make more sense with a center near Guadeloupe. If this is Erika's center, then it's quite disorganized.

From what I can tell on the short vis loop I have...its one of the centers. There appears to be another back in towards the deep convection.

The upper level environment appears good...must be some pretty good undercutting shear somewhere.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for the plot WXman57. During the night the IR satellites are very misleading with this type of storm.

[HURAKAN]

AFM, at least based on what RECON found, that appears to be a vortex max

[wxman57]

Yeah, I was about to point that out, AFM. Near 16.8N/61.5W on an image I just received. It's moving away from the convection. The obs I've been looking at make more sense with a center near Guadeloupe. If this is Erika's center, then it's quite disorganized.

From what I can tell on the short vis loop I have...its one of the centers. There appears to be another back in towards the deep convection.

The upper level environment appears good...must be some pretty good undercutting shear somewhere.

Possible. Have to wait and see. But the buoy reports nearby don't indicate another circulation.

[jlauderdal]

Thanks for the plot WXman57. During the night the IR satellites are very misleading with this type of storm.

daytime too, checkout my post around 5 am, i refused to fall into the IR trap, this storm is going to have upweliing issues if not already real soon in addition to the shear afm pointed out, we are trending towards an open wave right now

[poof121]

Yeah, I was about to point that out, AFM. Near 16.8N/61.5W on an image I just received. It's moving away from the convection. The obs I've been looking at make more sense with a center near Guadeloupe. If this is Erika's center, then it's quite disorganized.

From what I can tell on the short vis loop I have...its one of the centers. There appears to be another back in towards the deep convection.

The upper level environment appears good...must be some pretty good undercutting shear somewhere.

Possible. Have to wait and see. But the buoy reports nearby don't indicate another circulation.

Wouldn't this convergence chart seem to indicate there's another center trying to form?

[Derek Ortt]

could be a SAL surge. One was catching up yesterday.

[Air Force Met]

The satellite image in this surface plot is a little old, but you can clearly see the LLC near northern Guadeloupe Island. Obs all around fit THAT as being the real center of Erika. I don't see any evidence on satellite or surface obs of a large gyre with multiple vortices now.

Recon fixed a vortex 100 nm EAST of that vortex only an hour ago. I doubt its moved 100 nm in an hour. That's why I say there has to be multiples. The vortex is 1123Z and the sat pic time is 1145Z...so...we have a sat image and recon report of two vortexes...separated by 100 miles in 22 minutes...

I think that is evidence...

[Air Force Met]

Possible. Have to wait and see. But the buoy reports nearby don't indicate another circulation.

Recon did 22 minutes prior to the satellite. I also think I see some eastward moving inflow near that convective burst...which is where recon fixed the vortex at 1123z.

[Derek Ortt]

however, recon is flying at 850mb. Wonder if that vtx is not quite reaching the surface

[HURAKAN]

651
WHXX01 KWBC 021242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC WED SEP 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA (AL062009) 20090902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090902 1200 090903 0000 090903 1200 090904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 60.0W 17.0N 61.7W 17.6N 63.5W 18.2N 65.1W
BAMD 16.3N 60.0W 16.8N 61.4W 17.3N 62.7W 17.7N 63.9W
BAMM 16.3N 60.0W 16.7N 61.4W 17.1N 62.7W 17.5N 63.9W
LBAR 16.3N 60.0W 16.8N 61.7W 17.4N 63.6W 17.9N 65.4W
SHIP 40KTS 41KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 41KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090904 1200 090905 1200 090906 1200 090907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 66.9W 19.6N 70.6W 20.3N 74.5W 20.8N 77.7W
BAMD 17.9N 65.1W 18.1N 67.3W 18.6N 69.9W 19.4N 72.6W
BAMM 17.8N 65.2W 18.4N 68.0W 19.3N 71.1W 20.2N 74.2W
LBAR 18.2N 67.1W 18.6N 70.6W 18.5N 73.7W 18.0N 76.2W
SHIP 58KTS 63KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 58KTS 63KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 60.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 58.0W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 56.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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