CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[HURAKAN]

In case you're wondering

[HURAKAN]

Felicia now moving into the weakest part of the OHC

[srainhoutx]

IMHO, this vortex will not go away quickly.

[CrazyC83]

Shear is decreasing greatly ahead of Felicia...could that trend continue all the way to Hawaii?

[cycloneye]

03z Advisory=90kts

WTPZ43 KNHC 080243
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING A TRMM OVERPASS...INDICATE THAT
FELICIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE IS MORE DISTINCT...AND THE EYEWALL IS MORE SYMMETRIC WITH
COLDER CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM
TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE
HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
OF FELICIA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS
FORECAST FELICIA TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...
A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS EVOLUTION BLOCKING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF FELICIA...CAUSING THE STORM TO
SHEAR APART IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WOULD THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE TRADE WINDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
IT...CALLING FOR FELICIA TO PASS NEAR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII BETWEEN
72-96 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR FELICIA TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL
INTEGRITY AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR HAWAII.

FELICIA IS STILL MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN...THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
NOTWITHSTANDING. WHILE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST INCREASE
STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HR...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASED SHEAR BEGINNING IN 36-48 HR. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS FELICIA APPROACHES
HAWAII...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. IF FELICIA
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SSTS
AND LESS SHEAR...WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE INTO STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND
HASTEN ITS DEMISE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 18.8N 138.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 19.3N 139.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 19.5N 142.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 19.6N 145.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 19.6N 147.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 153.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 159.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 20.0N 164.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Our 50th state needs to keep an eye

[CrazyC83]

Notice it mentions they are being conservative, and the TAFB had T5.5. I would have gone up to 100 kt for the advisory after reading that, as a blend of the ADT, TAFB and SAB.

[HURAKAN]

Better defined but the convection is becoming weaker

[cycloneye]

And it looks like its moving more westward.

[HURAKAN]

07/2200




08/0300



The convection has weakened

[Derek Ortt]

but the eye is better defined. 90KT was a good initial intensity

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Ed Mahmoud]

The mention in previous discussions of some annular characteristics seems to be gone now.

While what appears to be a band to the SE could theoretically, based on my close but amateur staring at satellite loops, be an outflow jet resembling a banded feature, the one of the West side does seem to be wrapping cyclonically into Felicia.

I don't think I have ever seen a live annular hurricane since I have been an S2K member and learned what an annular hurricane/TC was.

[yzerfan]

Media and public information links for Hawaii-

Hawaii State Civil Defense- http://www.scd.state.hi.us/

Newspapers-
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/
http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/
http://www.mauinews.com/
http://www.starbulletin.com/

Television-
http://www.kitv.com/index.html
http://kgmb9.com/main/
http://www.khon2.com/default.aspx
http://www.khnl.com/

[Thunder44]

Back down to 90mph:


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 080838
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009

...FELICIA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1030 MILES...1660 KM...EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.0N 139.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080839
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED EARLIER IS LIKELY NOW OVER...AND A GRADUAL...WEAKENING
SEEMS TO HAVE COMMENCED. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN WARMING...AND A NOTABLE DRY SLOT THAT
HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...FELICIA
HAS BEEN EXHIBITING MANY OF THE COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE...INCLUDING A FAIRLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
FEATURES OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA. ON THE BASIS OF THE DEGRADED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5
AND 5.0...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE
PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING MAY ACTUALLY BE EVEN MORE
WESTWARD. FELICIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE BEYOND
24 HOURS. A WEAKER FELICIA LATER IN THE FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE ON
A MOSTLY DUE-WESTWARD COURSE WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. OUTSIDE OF
THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF
HAWAII JUST AFTER 72 HOUR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IN AN EFFORT TO MINIMIZE THE CONTRIBUTION BY THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL OUTPUT.

FELICIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND 48 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD FELICIA ASSUME A MOTION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER A LOWER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD LEAD FELICIA INTO
EVEN HIGHER SHEAR AND WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 19.0N 139.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 19.3N 141.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 19.5N 143.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 19.6N 146.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 149.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 19.5N 154.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.0N 165.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

12 UTC best track is at 80kts.Is now a CPAC system as it passed 140W.

EP, 08, 2009080812, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1401W, 80, 975, HU

[HURAKAN]

Still looks good

[cycloneye]

12 UTC SHIP shear forecast.

Code: Select all

 EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *     FELICIA  EP082009  08/08/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120


SHEAR (KT)         8     3     2     7    12    10    16    21    22    19    23    21    30


[HURAKAN]

The SSTs over which Felicia is moving are between 24ºC & 26ºC

[cycloneye]

000
FXHW60 PHFO 081341
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT AUG 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A STABLE
RAINFALL PATTERN FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. HURRICANE
FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD AFFECT THE STATE AS A TROPICAL STORM OR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STORE FOR LOCAL WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A
1029MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING NEAR 38N145W WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A STABLE RAINFALL PATTERN FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS.

HURRICANE FELICIA IS LOCATED JUST UNDER 1000 MILES EAST OF HILO THIS
EVENING AND IS TRAVELLING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THE
OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST HAS FELICIA GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE WEEKEND AS IS TRAVERSES
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. FELICIA COULD IMPACT
THE STATE AS A TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL STORM OR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA COULD REACH THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE
AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE EXACT INTENSITY AND POSITION OF FELICIA NEAR THE STATE. WHILE A
TROPICAL STORM WOULD DELIVER STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FLOODING RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE REGARDLESS OF THE SYSTEM/S INTENSITY. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON POTENTIAL FLOOD IMPACTS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOESFHFO. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS FELICIA MOVES WEST OF THE AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL RESIDENTS IN HAWAII...NO MATTER WHAT THE
ISLAND OF RESIDENCE...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FELICIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REVIEW YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLAN TO DETERMINE
NECESSARY ACTIONS IF FELICIA IMPACTS YOUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FELICIA...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...
FLORIDA. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU WILL
ASSUME FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY FOR FELICIA FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE
ISSUED AT 11 AM HST TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIXED WELL NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE FELICIA PASSES WEST OF THE
STATE MID WEEK...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL FLATTEN...ALLOWING TRADE
WINDS AND MAUKA SHOWERS TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TYPICALLY BREEZY COASTAL WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND LARGE SEAS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS FELICIA APPROACHES
THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY.

FORERUNNERS OF THE EASTERLY SWELL FROM FELICIA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
EAST FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BIG
ISLAND BEING THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE RISING SWELL. WHILE SURF
MAY RISE ABOVE THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY LEVEL ON THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT SURF TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8 FEET ON MOST ISLANDS...AND
POSSIBLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA OF 15 FEET ON THE BIG ISLAND.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECLINE BY WEDNESDAY.