ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[StormClouds63]

Thanks for taking the time to check on this for me. Camille not a surprise, but I'll have to read up on the 1950 storm.

Probably has reached peak intensity ... but still an amazing sight, especially its size. Westward model trend troubling.

Curious if anyone might know the highest north latitude on record for a Cat5 system (Atlantic basin) and what storm it was?

According to the Best Track, Dog (50) reached 29.3N and holds the record for northmost Cat 5 to NOT be over land:

34985 08/30/1950 M=19 4 SNBR= 775 DOG XING=0
34990 08/30* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*152 553 60 0*
34995 08/31*157 565 65 0*159 576 70 0*160 587 75 0*162 596 80 0*
35000 09/01*164 603 85 0*169 611 90 0*175 618 95 0*179 623 105 0*
35005 09/02*184 628 110 0*191 636 110 0*198 643 115 0*203 647 115 0*
35010 09/03*207 650 120 0*210 652 125 0*213 655 125 0*216 658 125 0*
35015 09/04*219 661 130 0*222 664 130 0*226 668 135 0*229 672 135 0*
35020 09/05*234 677 140 0*241 681 140 0*248 684 145 0*255 685 145 0*
35025 09/06*262 685 155 0*267 684 160 0*272 683 160 0*279 681 160 0*
35030 09/07*286 679 150 0*293 677 140 0*300 675 130 0*304 674 125 0*
35035 09/08*307 673 115 0*309 674 105 0*312 677 95 0*311 682 90 0*
35040 09/09*310 686 85 0*309 690 85 0*307 695 80 0*306 699 80 0*
35045 09/10*305 702 80 0*305 706 80 0*310 710 85 0*323 717 85 0*
35050 09/11*337 721 85 0*351 723 85 0*365 721 80 0*379 717 75 0*
35055 09/12*393 706 65 0E405 688 65 0E413 669 60 0E419 651 60 0*
35060 09/13E422 634 60 0E424 618 55 0E426 603 55 0E428 583 50 0*
35065 09/14E429 559 50 0E430 532 50 0E431 500 50 0E432 462 50 0*
35070 09/15E434 421 50 0E440 379 50 0E453 336 50 0E471 285 50 0*
35075 09/16E490 232 50 0E509 186 50 0E528 147 50 0E543 116 50 0*
35080 09/17E552 91 50 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
35085 HR

Camille, however, hit land and was just .1 degree higher in latitude than Dog post-landfall, but still at Cat 5 strength, thus meaning Camille holds the record for being at Cat 5 the most north of any hurricane. Not sure about which was the most northern when reaching it though:

44425 08/14/1969 M= 9 3 SNBR= 955 CAMILLE XING=1 SSS=5
44430 08/14* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*194 820 50 991*
44435 08/15*197 827 55 0*201 833 60 0*207 838 85 970*212 841 100 964*
44440 08/16*223 844 90 0*231 852 105 0*237 859 120 0*242 865 130 908*
44445 08/17*252 872 140 905*260 877 155 0*270 882 160 0*283 887 165 0*
44450 08/18*294 891 165 909*307 896 100 0*322 900 65 0*334 901 50 0*
44455 08/19*347 900 30 0*360 893 30 0*370 880 30 0*377 860 25 0*
44460 08/20*380 848 25 0*374 802 25 0*373 770 25 0*370 751 30 0*
44465 08/21*366 734 40 0*367 709 45 0*373 684 50 0*380 649 55 0*
44470 08/22*392 614 60 0*408 582 55 0*430 540 50 0* 0 0 0 0*
44475 HR LA5 MS5

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful stadium effect

[mattpetre]

Bill seems to be a good bit less flat on the Western periphery. Could this mean a bit more westerly bias in movement until it begins to feel the effects of the trough? Just trying to learn more here.

[Derek Ortt]

means the shear has weakened a lot during the last 24

once this EWRC completes, it should re-intensify

[mattpetre]

means the shear has weakened a lot during the last 24

once this EWRC completes, it should re-intensify

Do you think this will affect short term movement or just intensity? Is the tilting / speed of the trough the only big variable about which we need to be concerned as far as path at this point?

[x-y-no]

Didn't see this one posted:

URNT12 KNHC 201325
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1218Z
B. 22 DEG 10 MIN N
61 DEG 11 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2663 M
D. 93 KT
E. 070 DEG 20 NM
F. 170 DEG 120 KT
G. 071 DEG 28 NM
H. 951 MB
I. 7 C/3447 M
J. 14 C/3850 M
K. 4 C/NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C30
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL5 OB 14 AL032009
MAX FL WIND 120 KTS NE QUAD 1212Z

[kat61]

wow that's like right over my House! If this trend continues, I better start getting prepared, I just told my Father to make sure both Cars are Filled with Gas and all that Jazz, we just went shopping yesterday, so i think we have enough non perisble stuff, may need to get some new Batteries though
We also have a Big Basement where we could set up some Cots and stuff, if it gets real bad

Does it flood up in your part of the woods so to speak? If so I wouldn't stay in the Basement. If it is a cat1-2 when it get up there. I wouldn't go to the basement. I would be watching every min of it. But being safe as I do watch it. The way the wind come at my house I can sit on my deck and be safe. Done it many times.Besafe

you beat me to it Storms! Water table concern,especially in flood zones!

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE BILL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0403A BILL
C. 20/1430Z
D. 22.5N 62.0W
E. 20/1600Z TO 20/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Next flight

[HURAKAN]

[btangy]

08/20/09 12Z NAM: Has upper level low NE of the Bahamas consolidating and moving faster to the SW, though NAM appears overdone given WV imagery. Mostly appears to affect the amount of shear over Bill decreasing it as the upper low moves away. Upper low N of Bill gets ejected to the NE.

NAM is slightly broader with the Midwest trough initially and reverted back to a positive tilt configuration at 36 hours with a more robust piece of energy swinging around the SW side of the trough consolidating into a lobe of vorticity over Indiana by 48 hours. NAM remains significantly deeper than 00Z GFS. Heights on the E side of the trough appear to relatively unchanged though. No significant eye catching changes to the synoptic reasoning behind the track of Bill.

[btangy]

4 model grand global ensemble for 8/20/09 at 00Z. Ensembles have tightened up and consolidated considerably from 24 hours ago. Probabilities of Bill passing within 150km of Nantucket, Cape Cod, and extreme E coastal Maine are still about 20-30%, but that's significantly down from yesterday. Unfortunately for Halifax and Nova Scotia, the confidence of significant impacts there has increased to ~60%

[cycloneye]

114
WTNT33 KNHC 201446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
610 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 695 MILES...1120 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH FRIDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON
FRIDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...
MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.6N 61.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

954
WTNT43 KNHC 201447
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2009

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...MICROWAVE IMAGES AND NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS
FROM A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME OPEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS WERE 121 AND
93 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY...EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SOME ARC
CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE SUGGESTING THAT BILL IS
NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS...AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON
THE HIGH SIDE. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
REINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT TO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST
WATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY CHANGE COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CATEGORY
FOUR AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96
HOURS IT SHOULD BE IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL IN FIVE DAYS.

BILL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SURROUNDING THE
AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME
STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. ONCE THE RECURVATURE
BEGINS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS RUN. THIS SHIFT IN GUIDANCE JUSTIFIES A VERY SMALL SHIFT
TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH INDEED IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...
MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON NOAA AND THE 53RD HURRICANE HUNTERS WILL BE
CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE NUMERICAL
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 22.6N 61.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 63.8W 110 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 26.6N 66.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 32.5N 69.0W 110 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 48.0N 53.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1200Z 55.0N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[kat61]

Thank you Hurricanewatcher (and that would indeed be me re new to Hurricane Tracking )

Your link shows the northerly SSTs should slow Bill down somewhat.

Yeah like I said in response to some one else in the models thread the only way we really get Tropical Storms and Hurricanes impacting us this far North is if they are moving really fast because the water most of the time is just to cold to sustain them.

couldn't the water alone be a concern for the NE? (remembering Hurrricane Agnes-June,1972)
she stalled and it was a mess!

[x-y-no]

They issued a corrected forecast advisory. The only line that changed was the 12 foot seas:

12 FT SEAS..440NE 320SE 350SW 375NW.

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

I agree with the NHC, Bill seems to be intensifying again the eye is becoming more symmetrical with the stadium effect though cloud tops are not cooling yet. As Mr. Derek said, shear has diminished and with that warm waters it is not out of question that it will reintensify.

[greels]

Off topic, I know, but President Obama and family are scheduled to arrive on Martha's Vineyard this Sunday for their vacation.....

[Shaun2453]

so, uhm

What's an EWRC?

Couldnt find it in the acronym list here at S2K. Thanks

[x-y-no]

so, uhm

What's an EWRC?

Couldnt find it in the acronym list here at S2K. Thanks

Eye-Wall replacement cycle.