ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Rainband]

radar sucks for movement.

[Stormcenter]

You don't need the radar to see a more northerly movement on visible satellite.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

radar sucks for movement.

[nashrobertsx]

if Ida starts moving more north, that has nothing to do with the west tex trough. it has more to do with the west gulf trough and the high to the east of ida. i dont think the west tex trough will beat ida to the coast delaying the right turn by at least 6 hours. the digging trough is 1000 miles away and moving at 20. Ida is like 575 miles south of biloxi and moving at 10-12 miles per hour. do the math and see which gets here first?

[deltadog03]

Looking better and better..

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082152
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 10 20091108
214230 2618N 08920W 5974 04436 0078 +016 -033 138033 033 035 002 00
214300 2617N 08923W 5972 04438 0075 +017 -018 140033 034 037 001 00
214330 2617N 08925W 5972 04437 0079 +013 -006 141033 033 037 002 00
214400 2616N 08928W 5969 04441 0076 +015 -013 140032 033 036 002 03
214430 2614N 08929W 5973 04432 0076 +014 -020 136031 032 999 999 03
214500 2613N 08928W 5972 04433 0073 +015 -008 139032 033 999 999 03
214530 2613N 08926W 5977 04432 0076 +015 -004 145033 034 999 999 03
214600 2615N 08925W 5977 04433 0085 +014 -036 143033 034 999 999 03
214630 2617N 08927W 5973 04445 0086 +014 -019 142034 034 999 999 03
214700 2616N 08929W 5977 04430 0080 +014 -022 137031 031 034 002 00
214730 2615N 08931W 5971 04441 0082 +013 -014 137033 033 034 001 00
214800 2614N 08933W 5969 04441 0076 +014 -006 136035 035 034 003 00
214830 2612N 08935W 5969 04440 0080 +011 -001 137033 034 036 002 00
214900 2611N 08937W 5970 04439 0074 +014 -002 136036 037 036 002 00
214930 2610N 08939W 5970 04438 0071 +016 +000 134037 038 035 001 00
215000 2609N 08940W 5971 04438 0065 +019 +002 133035 036 036 000 00
215030 2608N 08942W 5970 04439 0063 +020 +003 135035 036 037 001 00
215100 2607N 08944W 5969 04440 0066 +019 +005 143033 034 037 001 00
215130 2606N 08946W 5968 04442 0066 +019 +003 150035 037 037 002 00
215200 2605N 08949W 5968 04441 0064 +019 -002 151033 033 038 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,from now on I think the resolution of the Cancun radar will not be good as it is getting farther away.

yep .. but its stillok once the eyewall comes back like right now..

still improving,.. nearly closed again

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082201
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 45 20091108
215330 2207N 08615W 6969 03083 9983 +092 +022 246053 056 057 003 00
215400 2209N 08615W 6961 03088 9966 +100 +022 247057 060 062 001 03
215430 2211N 08615W 6977 03053 9930 +118 +022 248059 064 073 001 03
215500 2213N 08615W 6971 03041 9901 +126 +023 253067 071 080 002 00
215530 2214N 08615W 6967 03033 9885 +126 +026 256081 082 079 003 00
215600 2216N 08615W 6970 03011 9844 +143 +030 257084 085 076 004 03
215630 2218N 08615W 6960 03007 9807 +157 +034 259077 080 068 005 00
215700 2220N 08615W 6978 02971 9816 +137 +041 263054 063 062 009 00
215730 2221N 08615W 6951 03000 9797 +145 +043 260034 038 058 004 00
215800 2223N 08615W 6971 02977 9770 +173 +042 249025 028 042 002 03
215830 2225N 08616W 6962 02984 9762 +178 +044 244029 031 036 001 03
215900 2227N 08617W 6965 02977 9754 +185 +049 225022 027 030 002 03
215930 2228N 08618W 6968 02976 9754 +183 +055 210011 018 036 003 03
220000 2229N 08619W 6969 02970 9770 +168 +062 282005 015 048 003 03
220030 2230N 08620W 6943 03009 9771 +168 +068 233013 017 999 999 03
220100 2232N 08619W 6958 02988 9782 +154 +074 019006 019 063 005 03
220130 2233N 08618W 6957 02983 9759 +168 +076 054011 015 058 002 03
220200 2234N 08617W 6946 02996 9744 +181 +078 087012 013 068 004 00
220230 2235N 08615W 6966 02974 9755 +175 +080 119015 020 081 003 00
220300 2237N 08614W 6967 02973 9782 +151 +082 125034 038 078 004 00
$$
;

change that tto 975 extrap - just caught it.

[deltadog03]

Your right Aric, looking better and better. I think the combo of some dry air and possibly an ERC made it look sick for a couple of hours.

[ozonepete]

if Ida starts moving more north, that has nothing to do with the west tex trough. it has more to do with the west gulf trough and the high to the east of ida. i dont think the west tex trough will beat ida to the coast delaying the right turn by at least 6 hours. the digging trough is 1000 miles away and moving at 20. Ida is like 575 miles south of biloxi and moving at 10-12 miles per hour. do the math and see which gets here first?

Hi there! You misunderstood what I said. I said the nose of the 500mb trough, the forward edge of the whole 500mb weakness in the western U.S. , is now showing up in western Texas. The fact it is already positioned there means it may exert influence sooner than the models are handling it.

[LizzardInFlorida]

Thank you for your updates Macrocane, they are much appreciated. Stay safe.

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 082202
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 11 20091108
215230 2604N 08951W 5968 04439 0066 +017 +002 146035 036 040 003 00
215300 2604N 08953W 5969 04437 0070 +014 +007 145036 037 040 002 00
215330 2603N 08955W 5968 04438 0065 +016 +009 148038 038 040 005 00
215400 2602N 08958W 5967 04438 0067 +014 +011 151038 039 040 003 00
215430 2601N 09000W 5964 04438 0065 +014 +012 152038 039 039 001 00
215500 2559N 09001W 5970 04433 0067 +013 +011 153038 039 999 999 03
215530 2557N 09000W 5968 04436 0070 +012 +011 157035 036 999 999 03
215600 2556N 08958W 5967 04437 0071 +012 +011 157031 032 999 999 03
215630 2557N 08956W 5971 04434 0069 +014 +007 161032 032 037 002 00
215700 2558N 08954W 5965 04442 0064 +017 +005 151032 033 037 001 00
215730 2559N 08951W 5968 04439 0059 +020 +005 149031 032 037 001 00
215800 2559N 08949W 5966 04441 0063 +018 +006 147032 033 037 002 00
215830 2600N 08946W 5966 04442 0070 +015 +010 146033 033 038 002 00
215900 2601N 08944W 5967 04441 0074 +012 +012 145031 032 037 002 00
215930 2602N 08942W 5967 04440 0075 +012 +010 148033 036 037 003 00
220000 2603N 08939W 5967 04442 0073 +013 +004 146037 037 039 002 00
220030 2603N 08937W 5967 04441 0065 +018 +002 144036 037 039 001 00
220100 2604N 08935W 5969 04439 0075 +013 -001 147034 035 039 001 00
220130 2605N 08932W 5967 04441 0085 +007 -001 063026 100 039 001 00
220200 2605N 08930W 5968 04440 0077 +012 -004 146034 035 038 001 00

[Dean4Storms]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

[Ivanhater]

Shes blowing up again

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082211
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 46 20091108
220330 2238N 08613W 6978 02963 9801 +138 +084 129034 038 082 004 00
220400 2239N 08612W 6959 02997 9829 +122 +083 134048 057 081 004 03
220430 2240N 08610W 6971 02985 9844 +113 +081 144076 086 079 003 03
220500 2241N 08609W 6967 02996 9858 +107 +078 150096 105 084 002 00
220530 2242N 08607W 6967 03005 9887 +095 +072 150104 105 084 005 00
220600 2243N 08606W 6972 03017 9904 +091 +067 147104 105 080 005 00
220630 2243N 08606W 6972 03017 9928 +079 +061 144098 099 076 011 00
220700 2246N 08603W 6972 03027 9940 +074 +053 145101 105 080 012 00
220730 2247N 08602W 6980 03022 9945 +075 +044 146104 105 080 010 00
220800 2248N 08601W 6968 03047 9950 +082 +037 144093 095 080 009 00
220830 2249N 08600W 6953 03071 9968 +071 +031 142100 103 076 011 00
220900 2250N 08558W 6964 03062 9978 +068 +027 139103 108 075 009 00
220930 2251N 08557W 6977 03046 9982 +071 +022 137095 106 071 006 00
221000 2252N 08556W 6954 03081 9975 +083 +018 142084 087 071 006 00
221030 2254N 08555W 6963 03083 9990 +082 +016 137075 077 069 006 00
221100 2255N 08553W 6968 03086 0009 +072 +014 134071 074 064 008 00
221130 2256N 08552W 6963 03100 9995 +089 +012 132065 068 062 010 00
221200 2257N 08551W 6968 03097 9997 +089 +011 139067 069 059 006 00
221230 2258N 08550W 6970 03098 0007 +087 +012 135070 072 058 007 00
221300 2259N 08548W 6970 03101 0010 +088 +014 138066 067 057 005 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

Luis, it certainly looks like the GFS keeps this tropical as it landfalls in the Mobile/Pensacola area. I am leaning more and mor of this staying tropical at landfall

I am thinking tropical as well. Whatever the case, I would get prepared for some gusty winds and rain over there.

[Aric Dunn]

nearly a cat 3 .. max flight level winds so far.. 108 kts.. !!!!!!

[Sabanic]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area

[deltadog03]

Your right Ivan...and she is expanding in the N and W quad. IF there is any indication of shear or real dry air those quads will def. show it first.

[Kingarabian]

Your right Aric, looking better and better. I think the combo of some dry air and possibly an ERC made it look sick for a couple of hours.

Delta do you think this system could reach cat.3?