ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

A few 100+ kt winds at flight level on the last set.

[Aric Dunn]

ok i'll say it again .. max flight level winds.. 108 kts.. ..lol

[IvanSurvivor]

Lots of bird chatter outside! Wonder what they're saying?

[WindRunner]

Latest recon stats:

Min extrap pressure: 974mb
Max SFMR winds: 84kts
Max FL winds: 108kts

It's been too long...what's a good FL conversion from this height? .8 or .9?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082202
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 11 20091108
215230 2604N 08951W 5968 04439 0066 +017 +002 146035 036 040 003 00
215300 2604N 08953W 5969 04437 0070 +014 +007 145036 037 040 002 00
215330 2603N 08955W 5968 04438 0065 +016 +009 148038 038 040 005 00
215400 2602N 08958W 5967 04438 0067 +014 +011 151038 039 040 003 00
215430 2601N 09000W 5964 04438 0065 +014 +012 152038 039 039 001 00
215500 2559N 09001W 5970 04433 0067 +013 +011 153038 039 999 999 03
215530 2557N 09000W 5968 04436 0070 +012 +011 157035 036 999 999 03
215600 2556N 08958W 5967 04437 0071 +012 +011 157031 032 999 999 03
215630 2557N 08956W 5971 04434 0069 +014 +007 161032 032 037 002 00
215700 2558N 08954W 5965 04442 0064 +017 +005 151032 033 037 001 00
215730 2559N 08951W 5968 04439 0059 +020 +005 149031 032 037 001 00
215800 2559N 08949W 5966 04441 0063 +018 +006 147032 033 037 002 00
215830 2600N 08946W 5966 04442 0070 +015 +010 146033 033 038 002 00
215900 2601N 08944W 5967 04441 0074 +012 +012 145031 032 037 002 00
215930 2602N 08942W 5967 04440 0075 +012 +010 148033 036 037 003 00
220000 2603N 08939W 5967 04442 0073 +013 +004 146037 037 039 002 00
220030 2603N 08937W 5967 04441 0065 +018 +002 144036 037 039 001 00
220100 2604N 08935W 5969 04439 0075 +013 -001 147034 035 039 001 00
220130 2605N 08932W 5967 04441 0085 +007 -001 063026 100 039 001 00
220200 2605N 08930W 5968 04440 0077 +012 -004 146034 035 038 001 00

Descending

[Aric Dunn]

Latest recon stats:

Min extrap pressure: 974mb
Max SFMR winds: 84kts
Max FL winds: 108kts

It's been too long...what's a good FL conversion from this height? .8 or .9?

yeah .8 probably in this case..

105 mph is probably in line.. maybe 110..

[Derek Ortt]

conversion factor irrelevant since we have SFMR

still an 85KT cane, even though FL winds suggest cat 3

[ROCK]

if anything that West GOM low is help keeping the dry air from eating into IDA...kinda running as a blocker...

[MGC]

Ida should beat the trough to the NGOM. The trough is still 1200+ miles away (995 for TX, 330 for LA). The ridge along the NGOM and the low in the WGOM are what are going to stear Ida till lanfall. Only way the trough will have a big impact is if Ida slows down its forward speed. I'm thinking that Ida will remain a TC all the way in....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

conversion factor irrelevant since we have SFMR

still an 85KT cane, even though FL winds suggest cat 3

yeah but they dont always follow sfmr ...

[WindRunner]

conversion factor irrelevant since we have SFMR

still an 85KT cane, even though FL winds suggest cat 3

SFMR still has its problems, and the more data we can have the better. Since the .9 conversion is what I was leaning towards, and supports the almost-cat-3 status that you mention (97kts), I assume that is the generally accepted one.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 082212
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 12 20091108
220230 2606N 08928W 5967 04444 0071 +015 +001 146033 034 037 002 00
220300 2607N 08926W 5967 04444 0073 +015 +000 146033 034 039 002 00
220330 2608N 08923W 5968 04443 0070 +017 +002 144033 033 039 001 00
220400 2608N 08921W 5967 04444 0065 +019 +006 144032 032 038 001 00
220430 2609N 08919W 5968 04443 0063 +021 +005 144031 032 038 001 00
220500 2610N 08916W 5968 04443 0066 +020 +003 147032 033 038 001 00
220530 2610N 08914W 5969 04442 0069 +019 +000 148032 032 039 001 00
220600 2611N 08912W 5968 04444 0066 +021 -003 148033 033 037 001 00
220630 2612N 08910W 5968 04445 0070 +018 +001 147029 031 038 001 00
220700 2612N 08907W 5967 04446 0070 +018 +001 144028 029 037 002 00
220730 2613N 08905W 5968 04445 0069 +020 -008 142028 028 037 001 00
220800 2614N 08903W 5967 04446 0079 +017 -061 138027 028 038 001 00
220830 2615N 08900W 5967 04446 0086 +015 -081 134027 027 038 001 00
220900 2615N 08858W 5968 04446 0092 +012 -077 132026 027 038 001 00
220930 2616N 08856W 5967 04446 0091 +011 -071 134027 027 037 002 00
221000 2617N 08854W 5967 04446 0092 +010 -053 133027 027 036 002 00
221030 2617N 08851W 5968 04446 0088 +014 -081 135027 027 036 002 00
221100 2618N 08849W 5968 04447 0096 +007 -037 134026 026 036 001 00
221130 2619N 08847W 5968 04446 0096 +008 -043 134025 025 034 001 00
221200 2619N 08844W 5969 04446 0096 +010 -070 135025 025 036 001 00

[Dionne]

Lots of bird chatter outside! Wonder what they're saying?

Mr. Bird wants to stay, Mrs. Bird wants to evac and the little birds are crying.

[deltadog03]

Someone just set off a bomb in IDA. Sat presentation is looking much better. I see recon is in there so, given a bit more time it should respond with the winds.

[Aric Dunn]

conversion factor irrelevant since we have SFMR

still an 85KT cane, even though FL winds suggest cat 3

SFMR still has its problems, and the more data we can have the better. Since the .9 conversion is what I was leaning towards, and supports the almost-cat-3 status that you mention (97kts), I assume that is the generally accepted one.

the thing about it is that there were a lot of 100 and 105 kts in there as well .. not just one large reading.. sfmr often is off..

[ozonepete]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area

The whole North side (NW to NE) will be strong if it goes ET. If it's still mostly tropical, the NE quadrant will be much worse.

[MGC]

Central pressure is slowly dropping now at 974mb down 2mb from the 4pm advisory. Winds will be catching up and Ida has a small shot at making Cat-3 tonight......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

generally, SFMR is given greater weight these days than the FL conversion.

The reaosn is that according to Franklin et at. (2003) there is a range of conversion factors from .6 to 1.2. .9 is just the mean conversion factor

[Aric Dunn]

Someone just set off a bomb in IDA. Sat presentation is looking much better. I see recon is in there so, given a bit more time it should respond with the winds.

right we were both saying it was just temporary.. the eye diameter is getting smaller .. pressure is down slightly again too ..

[MGC]

Take a cruise down to the beach.....no birds = hurricane.....MGC