ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, he said "not withstanding the potential for this entering the gulf..." not that it WAS going into the GOM. But who the heck knows where it's going, anyway? Nobody knows for sure. A few days ago, you said it wouldn't get anywhere near the Caribbean. It looks pretty close to it right now.

We can't even get this thing past the islands and you have it the GOM already.
If it made it in there (GOM) it would be short lived if it survived.

The center found by RECON is under the convection or very close to it, not the one over the Lesser Antilles. Strong convection is developing over the estimated position of the center, therefore, the NHC won't downgrade the system to TD without RECON information.

yeah even though there is clearly a vortex rotating sw the ball of convection that is firing is the main center or at least more dominate.

the models are just not going to have a easy time at all for the 12z run this is farther south than any model except the bam models from 3 days ago when they had it entering the NE carrib.

expect yet another shift west and south .. possibly across DR which does not bode well for strengthening...

not withstanding the potential for this entering the gulf if it hold together is increasing quickly and of course the bahamas and florida before that.

who said it would not be near the carrib?

[otowntiger]

[quote="Aric Dunn"][quote="HURAKAN"]Tropical Storm Erika's future highly uncertain

-The storm is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast, particularly if the storm stays weak over the next three days. Potential landfall solutions from the models range from Florida on Tuesday (GFS model) to North Carolina on Wednesday (Canadian model).


The interesting question is what if the storm stayed weak enough to be headed more westerly for the next 3 days as Jeff Master's states above but then what? Can the storm strengthen after 3 days and still be a threat to the east coast/FL?

[vbhoutex]

Hi Lynn! Inflow looks like a reform near the bursting...how far it gets or lasts it anybody's guess...Freaky shear enviroment as already mentioned..Met nightmare system!

You got that right!! I would hate to have to be forecasting this one!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Tropical Storm Erika's future highly uncertain

-The storm is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast, particularly if the storm stays weak over the next three days. Potential landfall solutions from the models range from Florida on Tuesday (GFS model) to North Carolina on Wednesday (Canadian model).


The interesting question is what if the storm stayed weak enough to be headed more westerly for the next 3 days as Jeff Master's states above but then what? Can the storm strengthen after 3 days and still be a threat to the east coast/FL?

of course it can.. if the conditions are there for to strengthen ..

[storms NC]

The NHC has moved their track to the west more than it was a 8am.

[Macrocane]

I agree that conditions will get worse and even Erika could dissipate, but remember that Isidore and Lili on 2002 dissipated and later when they sound favorable condition intensified into cat 3 and cat 4 hurricanes, repectively. So even if it poofs, the remnants will bear watching.

[tolakram]

Is this the models thread?

[Aric Dunn]

00z is the next one or is there one before that.. ?

nevermind i answered my own question.. lol

[sandyb]

With the latest 3-day cone showing the track (which I know is uncertain) going between St. Croix and St. Thomas, I still don't understand why there isn't even a "watch" up for us...Granted it will not be the strongest system, but people still need time to prepare boats, etc.....

to begin with people watch the weather if they dont do anything else they watch weather so they know its there whether its a hurricane storm or depression, so its best to be prepared anyway. you sould not have to be told to get ready just do it, these people dont know whats its gonna do, even our local mets here last week were on at lunch time said oh we have a rain shower over such and such a place, looked good on radar but then with the 6 pm news came on it they said it had been a false eco earlier in the day and there was not a rain shower there at all, but the what was showing on radar at that time was real, so give me a break these people can predict all they want but the dont none really know, so just be ready!

[otowntiger]

I agree that conditions will get worse and even Erika could dissipate, but remember that Isidore and Lili on 2002 dissipated and later when they sound favorable condition intensified into cat 3 and cat 4 hurricanes, repectively. So even if it poofs, the remnants will bear watching.

Also don't forget that yesterday at about this time the Pro mets here were just about to pronounce this thing doa, in fact Derek mentioned the fat lady was eager to sing and then, bam out of the blue and inexplicably she bursts into a formidable T.S.

[Macrocane]

Fay was a weak tropical storm and it caused major damage from the flooding rains. Our focus should be on those in the Islands first before we even start thinking about the CONUS impacts.

Eric

Actually Fay was a strong tropical storm, but even a TD can do damage, last year TD 16 caused locally heavy damage and more than 30 deaths in Central America.

[Aric Dunn]

I agree that conditions will get worse and even Erika could dissipate, but remember that Isidore and Lili on 2002 dissipated and later when they sound favorable condition intensified into cat 3 and cat 4 hurricanes, repectively. So even if it poofs, the remnants will bear watching.

or Andrew, katrina (combined) or Jeanne, and many many more. the point is still that its not over till this and its remnants are either out to lunch or inland.. cause at anytime just the left over energy or vorticity can reform.. good example.. Ivan or ..geez you get the picture.. lol

[mf_dolphin]

Is this the models thread?

Yes it is and this thread needs to stay on subject!

[Air Force Met]

Right, I'm waiting for all east Caribbean 15Z obs to arrive in GARP. So far, I'm seeing easterly winds at 10 kts about 50 miles SOUTHWEST of the 15Z center. Recon should have a fun time trying to close off a center this afternoon.

I agree. I think now they would have a hard time...but by the time they get out there it may have reconsolidated. I see decent SW'rly inflow coming off of Martinique headed into the convection and it appears the vort center over Guadeloupe has stalled or slowed some.

But...if they were there now and we were starting from scratch...I don't think we would be initiating advisories.
n

[jasons2k]

I agree that conditions will get worse and even Erika could dissipate, but remember that Isidore and Lili on 2002 dissipated and later when they sound favorable condition intensified into cat 3 and cat 4 hurricanes, repectively. So even if it poofs, the remnants will bear watching.

or Andrew, katrina (combined) or Jeanne, and many many more. the point is still that its not over till this and its remnants are either out to lunch or inland.. cause at anytime just the left over energy or vorticity can reform.. good example.. Ivan or ..geez you get the picture.. lol

Almost worth a stickie. Nothing else to add.

[wxman57]

Surface obs suggest a weak center southwest of the NHC position, maybe 16N/60.6W? See the crosshairs on the analysis below. Pitiful excuse for a storm now. But just as with any tropical disturbance, it can develop at any time given a favorable environment. Currently, models don't indicate a favorable environment in its path, though.

[Bocadude85]

Surface obs suggest a weak center southwest of the NHC position, maybe 16N/60.6W? See the crosshairs on the analysis below. Pitiful excuse for a storm now. But just as with any tropical disturbance, it can develop at any time given a favorable environment. Currently, models don't indicate a favorable environment in its path, though.

Yea not looking that great right now... wonder if another big blow up of thunderstorms will take place?

[gatorcane]

Wxman the convection is still very intense, it may be "pitiful" as far as not having all the convection right over the center but with that blob of convection, it should be kept a TS in my opinion. It just means it will keep tracking more west and the models will shift left. Hopefully it avoids Hispaniola. This would be a major problem for them.

As long as it maintains the kind of intense convection we are seeing, it has a chance to redevelop when/if conditions can become favorable....so it needs close watching, not to mention it looks to be Bahamas bound maybe, where conditions may become more favorable based on what some of the models are projecting.

[Gustywind]

Orange code for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards at 12AM (warning). Meteo-France have estimated the " best " center at 16N 60W.

[Aric Dunn]

Is this the models thread?

Yes it is and this thread needs to stay on subject!

hehe..

and the topic of all models is this really screwed up girl Erika who just cant seem to get the cat walk strut right ..

anyway back to reality..

simple equation

Erika = multiple vorts + shear + dry air = confused models = pay little attention to them right

lol

just the synoptics are somewhat useful; for instance, the placement of the trough and ridge the timing and strength of the ridge and trough. Erika small weak and not going to affect those scenarios. The models are important for that right now cause if she does decide to spring back then all the above is very important. not the track that the models are saying it will take now. to many uncertainties with her pooffing on us