ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[wxman57]

Note of interest. Super rapid-scan high-res visible imagery will begin in 20 minutes at the following link:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... isloop.asp

I believe that images will be taken at 1 minute intervals between 17Z and 2230Z today. Current images in the loop are spaced 30 minutes apart.

[KWT]

The interesting thing is it hasn't really picked up any more northerly component over the last 18hrs in that case Wxman57, though that turn to NNW shouldn't be that far away from the looks of things.

Still looking like a decent hit for Nova Scotia, probably a decent Category-1 landfall.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201634
AF304 0403A BILL HDOB 14 20090820
162430 2334N 06128W 6967 03054 9953 +087 +006 147098 098 062 009 00
162500 2335N 06126W 6966 03063 9963 +085 +006 146099 100 062 009 00
162530 2336N 06125W 6974 03059 9969 +085 +006 144098 101 062 008 00
162600 2337N 06124W 6959 03079 9980 +080 +006 143095 097 061 008 00
162630 2338N 06122W 6966 03073 9970 +089 +005 143094 095 057 014 00
162700 2339N 06121W 6970 03067 9990 +073 +004 146093 095 061 017 00
162730 2341N 06120W 6961 03083 9993 +070 +004 147092 093 063 016 00
162800 2342N 06118W 6972 03073 0001 +070 +003 148092 093 060 016 00
162830 2342N 06118W 6972 03073 0003 +071 +002 150094 095 061 013 00
162900 2344N 06116W 6967 03083 0003 +074 +002 152094 096 063 013 00
162930 2346N 06114W 6976 03075 0012 +069 +002 150097 099 063 013 00
163000 2347N 06113W 6957 03104 0009 +075 +003 151093 096 061 011 00
163030 2348N 06111W 6975 03084 0012 +077 +004 152090 092 061 011 00
163100 2349N 06110W 6969 03097 0019 +075 +005 149089 090 061 011 00
163130 2350N 06109W 6968 03100 0022 +076 +006 145083 086 062 012 00
163200 2352N 06107W 6965 03107 0038 +066 +006 142086 090 060 012 00
163230 2353N 06106W 6967 03107 0043 +065 +006 140088 090 061 012 00
163300 2354N 06105W 6967 03110 0032 +076 +005 140087 088 062 011 00
163330 2355N 06103W 6962 03119 0046 +066 +005 140088 090 061 012 00
163400 2356N 06102W 6964 03118 0058 +059 +005 142081 083 061 013 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[cheezyWXguy]

with FL winds of 135kts we should see an upgrade back to Cat.4 again at 2pm if not sooner!!!!!!!!

To be honest, there are a few holes in your "logic." When FL winds were over 140kt yesterday, we still barely had a 115kt storm at the surface. Also, there is no 2pm advisory because no advisories are out, and there is absolutely no reason for a special advisory at this point.

So...

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201644
AF304 0403A BILL HDOB 15 20090820
163430 2357N 06101W 6968 03119 0063 +060 +004 142081 085 061 013 00
163500 2358N 06059W 6969 03119 0059 +065 +004 140083 084 061 013 00
163530 2400N 06058W 6967 03124 0054 +071 +004 141085 086 062 012 00
163600 2401N 06057W 6967 03124 0056 +072 +005 141086 087 061 013 00
163630 2402N 06055W 6967 03133 0072 +062 +006 142085 087 061 015 00
163700 2403N 06054W 6968 03133 0069 +066 +006 142089 090 061 016 00
163730 2404N 06053W 6967 03132 0079 +060 +007 143085 086 059 016 00
163800 2405N 06051W 6965 03144 0081 +061 +007 145082 083 059 015 00
163830 2407N 06050W 6969 03140 0079 +065 +007 142082 084 056 015 00
163900 2408N 06048W 6967 03145 0078 +068 +007 142081 082 058 015 00
163930 2409N 06047W 6963 03159 0094 +064 +007 142083 083 055 014 03
164000 2411N 06047W 6965 03164 0112 +058 +008 138083 084 999 999 03
164030 2412N 06049W 6967 03159 0116 +055 +009 136081 082 999 999 03
164100 2412N 06051W 6973 03145 0098 +059 +011 136078 078 055 013 03
164130 2411N 06053W 6963 03148 0082 +064 +011 137079 080 059 014 00
164200 2411N 06055W 6970 03137 0077 +066 +011 136081 081 058 014 00
164230 2411N 06058W 6967 03138 0083 +060 +011 136079 081 067 012 00
164300 2411N 06100W 6963 03139 0076 +061 +011 134081 083 062 015 00
164330 2412N 06103W 6968 03131 0072 +062 +011 133083 086 060 016 00
164400 2412N 06105W 6967 03129 0064 +067 +011 131084 085 062 015 00
$$
;

[Ptarmigan]

It's a function of the pressure gradient as it relates to the wind field size. Bill is smaller than Ike, so the same central pressure will generate higher winds than Ike's more spread out wind field. That's why central pressure alone isn't a good indicator of wind speeds. Wind field size isn't accounted for.

In terms of radius of outermost closed isobar?

[JTD]

Do you all think that this will be worse than, equal to or better than Juan 2003 for NS?

[hurricanefloyd5]

dose anyone have a decoder for this info from recon??????

[JTD]

Continues to look great

The eye could be better defined though.

[SunnyThoughts]

Cheezy...there is a watch up for Bermuda, there will be an intermediate advisory at 2pm.

[KWT]

Well I'll be surprised if its stronger then Juan, generally they don't get hit that strong all that often. If the storm gets some sort of upper support from the trough then I suppose it could be equal to Juan but I think a category-1 is more likely IMO.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cheezy...there is a watch up for Bermuda, there will be an intermediate advisory at 2pm.

Oh, I never saw that. I just looked back at the advisories page of the Bill section on wunderground, and it shows up from when Bill was at 100mph and 967mb.
Anyone else see this?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Thanks sunny

[cheezyWXguy]

Well I'll be surprised if its stronger then Juan, generally they don't get hit that strong all that often. If the storm gets some sort of upper support from the trough then I suppose it could be equal to Juan but I think a category-1 is more likely IMO.

Idk, it could be a 2...Official forecast has it as a 3 off cape cod and this system is much larger than Juan if I remember right, meaning it may be slower to weaken.

[kat61]

with FL winds of 135kts we should see an upgrade back to Cat.4 again at 2pm if not sooner!!!!!!!!

To be honest, there are a few holes in your "logic." When FL winds were over 140kt yesterday, we still barely had a 115kt storm at the surface. Also, there is no 2pm advisory because no advisories are out, and there is absolutely no reason for a special advisory at this point.

So...

then why does the NWS say NHC will issue intermediate advisoy at 2pm?

[KWT]

Well it is possible but the water are pretty cool up there and typically storms tend to weaken much faster in that part of the world then the NHC expect, happens in both basins actually.

Still Bill is looking pretty good I have to admit!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Storms NC wrote:
All the Bill's I know are sneaky and bad.LOL

I grinned when I read that because when I looked at the 2009 list of Atlantic hurricane names, early in the year, I was pretty sure Bill would be a bad boy (I've also known a few that lived up to the above quote).

[Cookie]

ex-bill of the coast of the uk next wensday?

[KWT]

Yeah it looks like that is the feature Cookie, looks quite powerful!

[thetruesms]

Note of interest. Super rapid-scan high-res visible imagery will begin in 20 minutes at the following link:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... isloop.asp

I believe that images will be taken at 1 minute intervals between 17Z and 2230Z today. Current images in the loop are spaced 30 minutes apart.

I think it might be 10 minute intervals? One minute seems a bit too rapid

edit - nope, it's one minute