ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Ivanhater]

Looks to be moving more NW now..makes sense according to the steering maps.She is also moving faster so that is less time for the high to move off to the east

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

very surprised NHC went with 90KT. We actually lowered the winds since the SFMR did not find any cat 2 winds on the last couple of passes, and the MBL dropsonde winds also do not support cat 2

well the sfmr had too many flagged ... nhc realized that.. so they went with the fact that organization was increasing again..

that and i did say they would increase it 105

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak stayed below 90kts.

08/2345 UTC 23.1N 86.3W T4.5/4.5 IDA -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[PTPatrick]

Yeah. I am not sure its necessarily moving ahead of schedule but it does look fast for a gulf cane. In any case, this will be a VERY close one for already precarious Dauphin Island. Of course surge will happen there but it could be worse if the center goes directly over it as opposed to Gulf shores. It will be a close one.

[rolltide]

Looks to me like it is better stacked in the last hour or so. Also looks to me that it is starting to move a little faster. Maybe the faster forward speed helps lessen the effects of the shear allowing for better stacking of the storm?

[Aric Dunn]

I see on Google that winds w]

Well, from the latest advisory. Looks like Google is correct.

last advisory says 979 hehe..

[pojo]

Although I have been here since the inception of S2K, somewhere along the line I missed the meaning of SFMR. Sorry for the newbie question but could someone please explain what it is and its significance?

Thanks,
Lynn

Lynn,

The SMURF is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. Yes I know the acronym is backwards, but it was easier for us to say. It measures the emissivity (rapid changes of color, winds) of the sea surface state. The higher the wind = higher the waves = higher the emissivity

[JTE50]

Although I have been here since the inception of S2K, somewhere along the line I missed the meaning of SFMR. Sorry for the newbie question but could someone please explain what it is and its significance?

Thanks,
Lynn

step frequency microwave radiometer

Here are some pics from my NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter Flight back in 2005. In one you can see the operator Terry Lynch at the SFMR console.
http://www.extremestorms.com/hurricane_hunter.htm

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

This is actually one of the largest burst i have seen so far.. its quite large..

[sfwx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
130 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 12Z WED NOV 11 2009 - 12Z SUN NOV 15 2009



DURING DAYS 3-4 WED-THU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN
ATLC... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION OF
HURCN IDA... AND POSSIBLE WRN ATLC DEVELOPMENT THAT IS DEPICTED IN
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. THE MANUAL FCST REFLECTS THE TPC TRACK FOR
IDA GIVEN BY THE SPECIAL 18Z ADVISORY. WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THUS FAR CONSISTENT IN DOWNPLAYING POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG WRN
ATLC DEVELOPMENT... AND THE 00Z UKMET/NOGAPS ALSO PROGRESSIVE WITH
SHRTWV ENERGY REACHING THE WRN ATLC EARLY IN THE FCST... IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PLACE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC YET.
HOWEVER TAKEN AS A WHOLE THE SOLNS WE NOW HAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A SIGNAL TO INCORPORATE MODEST WEIGHTING AS A STARTING
POINT...KEEPING IN MIND CONTINUITY AMID UNCERTAINTY...WITH NEWER
12Z GUIDANCE STILL OFFERING A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. ACCORDINGLY
BY DAY 4 THU...THE HPC MANUAL FCST STILL INCORPORATES A BLEND TO
YIELD A SOLN CONSISTENT WITH OPC PREFERENCES TOWARD A WEAKER WRN
ATLC SFC LOW.

THE FINAL HPC FCST EDITION REMAINS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND
OF 60% 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 40% 00Z GFS DAYS 3-7. THIS
SOLUTION MAINTAINS GOOD HPC CONTINUITY AMID STILL VARIED NEWER 12Z
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION STILL SEEMS TO PROVIDE
A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS AND YIELD THE DESIRED SOLN
OVER THE WRN ATLC AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ERN PAC INTO NOAM.

RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
455 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2009


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 09/0000 UTC THRU NOV 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST ESPECIALLY BY DAY 3
CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS WITH A NRN STREAM TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY EARLY WED. PRIOR TO THAT
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TUE MORNING WITH HVY RAINS DEVELOPING WELL N OF
THE LOW TRACK AS A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO AN
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE
AFFORDED BY RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS. THIS WILL HELP
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 2-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS ON DAY
2. AGAIN BY DAY 3 THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
THE NAM/UKMET/12Z ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE PHASING OF IDA WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED NRN STREAM TROF...ALLOWING IDA TO TAKE A SLOWER
MORE WLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FOLLOWING LANDFALL. THIS IS STARK
CONTRAST TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS MUCH MORE PHASING AND A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY SFC LOW ACCELERATING ALONG WITH HVY RAINS UP THE E
COAST. THE HPC FORECAST REFLECTS A SOLUTION MORE SIMILAR TO THE
FORMER WHICH FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT NHC FORECAST
TRACK AS WELL. THAT SAID...WHILE HVY AMTS PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY PART OF DAY 3...THE HPC FORECAST
DEPICTS HVY AMTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SRN MID ATL
COAST AS STRONG SLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE INTO A NRN STREAM BNDRY
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW. REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE LATEST
TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION REGARDING IDA.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, pretty much a given that we can expect at least Hurricane force winds along the coast if nothing else but gusts!

[pojo]

So, I guess recon is done for now huh? It appears that the one plane is going back to tampa?

The NOAA plane is

[smw1981]

Mobile County EMA released a statement to the media around 1pm today saying that we would have winds around 50mph or so. Sooo, that is what all of our local tv stations are reporting. I think there are going to be a lot of people caught off guard with Ida if she comes ashore here (Dauphin Island is in Mobile Co., Gulf Shores is just across the bay..you can see Gulf Shores/Fort Morgan from Dauphin Island easily). I wish everyone had access to/knew about this board so they could get accurate and information in a timely manner!

[pojo]

We have a Hurricane Watch and Coastal Flooding Watches in effect here in Coastal Missisippi.

[smw1981]

wow..large burst there! You can definitely tell it is moving NNW or so in the last few frames (maybe the earlier north motion was a couple of wobbles?)... Still looks to be right of the forecast point though...

[deltadog03]

The forward speed is key** KEY** to how strong this will be at landfall. It appears is slightly right of the track point. I think we can expect a NNW movement overnight and an increase of foward speed. Not great if you want this to really weaken.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track=90kts

AL, 11, 2009110900, , BEST, 0, 230N, 865W, 90, 979, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[PTPatrick]

Would faster mean a farther west landfall though? Or just that it is feeling the trough quicker, IE further east landfall?

[wxman57]

You can really see the upper trof coming in from the west on the WV imagery now. Stronger southerly flow aloft is reaching Ida now. Big question remains - what will be left of Ida at landfall?