ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

if you run the loop from ssd which by the way is updating.. for me .. you can see a weak rotation that is rotation around the vortex in the carribean.. i have it circled below.. that will wrap around and weaken and the vortex will become the center over night. its pretty clear whats going on now. its a little rotational dynamics
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

and with all the dynamics going on right now.. a wobble NW over the next few hours is likely..

[Wx_Warrior]

Wish I could. The one on the Internet does go as far as was the Pro model. My brother is a pro met at KFDM 6 in Beaumont and just told after he took a quick look.

[wxman57]

The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a dying spinoff. The broad circulation is off to the NE, around where vacanechaser & aric said. That's where the burst of convection is coming from. Considering her environment, I don't think she looks half bad. If she is indeed off at the NE fix, she may stay north of PR.

I don't think so, Steve. Here's a new plot that's even more supportive of the main center SW of Guadeloupe. I see that the plane is exploring the NE quadrant to see if a new center might be forming way off to the NE, but they're not finding anything there. There just isn't any surface ob supportive of a center NE of Guadeloupe.

[Aric Dunn]

The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a dying spinoff. The broad circulation is off to the NE, around where vacanechaser & aric said. That's where the burst of convection is coming from. Considering her environment, I don't think she looks half bad. If she is indeed off at the NE fix, she may stay north of PR.

I don't think so, Steve. Here's a new plot that's even more supportive of the main center SW of Guadeloupe. I see that the plane is exploring the NE quadrant to see if a new center might be forming way off to the NE, but they're not finding anything there. There just isn't any surface ob supportive of a center NE of Guadeloupe.

lol. for once i agree with you .. but you cant see my posts so not sure why I even say anything

[Sanibel]

It would make sense if the system is being sheared at different layers and different directions within a general tropical flow it would spit out a satellite vortex or eddy.


This system is seriously disorganized.


Edit: However if the Guadeloupe center is the SW corner of an elongated structure the new burst could be a sheared reflection.

[otowntiger]

Nope, just a EURO model that you have to pay for.

Do you mean that just the EURO is showing dissapation?

[AtlanticWind]

FROM THE NHC

TROPICAL CONFUSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

Data from recon and recnt sat imagery indicate winds blowing from different directions and confirm that something may be going on . Latest model run of Hwrf show a Cat 6 hurricane
and the Gfs shows ...Hey somebody plug the Gfs back in please! Residents of the islands and puerto rico should rush to a bar and have a cold one till we can figure whats going on.

The next advisory will be issued after the pizza comes.

[lonelymike]

240 doesn't show anything.

[Wx_Warrior]

Oh that one for Erika.....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/

['CaneFreak]

Anyone alive out there?

[Aric Dunn]

FROM THE NHC

TROPICAL CONFUSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

Data from recon and recnt sat imagery indicate winds blowing from different directions and confirm that something may be going on . Latest model run of Hwrf show a Cat 6 hurricane
and the Gfs shows ...Hey somebody plug the Gfs back in please! Residents of the islands and puerto rico should rush to a bar and have a cold one till we can figure whats going on.

The next advisory will be issued after the pizza comes.

lol . pretty funny..

[storms NC]

There was 2 ULL one went to the NE and the other moved to the SW. That is the ULL that you see. I am not a PRO I maybe wrong. But that ULL has been around it slid down to the South.I have that map too. But I maybe very wrong.
Map one


Map 2 the ULL.

[HURRICANELONNY]

In all the years of observing storms. I don't remember one that looked this disorganized and at the same time organized. Looks like a huge storm or Hurricane. At least on IR loop.

[Derek Ortt]

URNT15 KNHC 022008
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 24 20090902
195830 1658N 05832W 8430 01587 0127 +155 +134 171031 032 030 002 00
195900 1700N 05833W 8432 01585 0126 +160 +134 172031 032 028 002 00
195930 1702N 05834W 8431 01590 0128 +159 +134 174031 032 027 003 03
200000 1704N 05833W 8431 01593 0127 +159 +134 177032 032 021 003 03
200030 1706N 05833W 8424 01593 0126 +161 +135 179032 033 026 001 03
200100 1707N 05833W 8433 01587 0128 +155 +136 176033 034 026 001 00
200130 1709N 05832W 8429 01588 0128 +155 +136 174034 034 024 003 00
200200 1711N 05832W 8430 01593 0130 +155 +136 169034 035 025 001 03
200230 1713N 05832W 8429 01588 0129 +155 +136 168035 036 026 002 00
200300 1715N 05832W 8429 01590 0129 +155 +135 169036 036 026 002 00
200330 1717N 05832W 8430 01586 0128 +155 +134 167035 035 024 003 00
200400 1719N 05833W 8430 01587 0126 +157 +134 168035 035 025 002 00
200430 1721N 05833W 8429 01588 0130 +151 +133 166034 034 025 003 00
200500 1723N 05833W 8430 01590 0132 +148 +132 163034 036 024 004 00
200530 1724N 05834W 8428 01591 0130 +154 +130 164035 036 026 004 00
200600 1726N 05834W 8430 01587 0133 +150 +128 162034 035 028 003 00
200630 1728N 05835W 8430 01589 0137 +144 +125 158034 035 028 004 00
200700 1730N 05835W 8429 01589 0136 +149 +122 150033 034 029 005 00
200730 1732N 05835W 8431 01590 0142 +141 +120 152032 034 031 008 00
200800 1734N 05836W 8425 01595 0148 +132 +119 158032 032 035 009 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 022018
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 25 20090902
200830 1736N 05836W 8426 01597 0150 +127 +116 146033 034 034 009 00
200900 1738N 05836W 8426 01595 0145 +137 +112 147030 030 034 007 00
200930 1739N 05836W 8428 01595 0142 +141 +110 154030 031 033 007 00
201000 1741N 05837W 8424 01598 0147 +136 +109 143027 030 040 018 00
201030 1743N 05837W 8422 01601 0147 +135 +109 134024 028 041 015 00
201100 1745N 05837W 8439 01582 0146 +136 +110 150025 027 033 008 00
201130 1747N 05837W 8436 01583 0146 +137 +110 162028 029 032 009 00
201200 1749N 05837W 8427 01595 0150 +132 +110 158028 029 031 009 00
201230 1750N 05837W 8427 01596 0143 +144 +109 159028 029 028 005 00
201300 1752N 05837W 8429 01595 0140 +151 +110 151027 028 029 001 00
201330 1754N 05837W 8430 01593 0139 +152 +112 148023 023 025 003 00
201400 1756N 05837W 8431 01593 0139 +152 +116 144023 024 027 001 00
201430 1758N 05837W 8429 01595 0137 +155 +120 141024 026 029 004 00
201500 1800N 05837W 8431 01593 0137 +155 +123 139027 029 030 003 00
201530 1801N 05837W 8429 01596 0136 +156 +127 130025 027 030 003 00
201600 1803N 05837W 8424 01598 0138 +149 +129 125026 029 032 003 00
201630 1805N 05837W 8435 01589 0134 +157 +129 134027 029 033 000 00
201700 1807N 05837W 8434 01590 0133 +160 +129 140030 032 034 000 00
201730 1809N 05837W 8435 01590 0134 +157 +130 141033 033 034 000 00
201800 1810N 05837W 8429 01595 0135 +159 +132 144033 034 034 000 03

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Another "center" up at 17 N ?

[HURAKAN]

839
URNT15 KNHC 022028
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 26 20090902
201830 1812N 05837W 8428 01598 0136 +157 +133 145032 033 035 000 00
201900 1814N 05837W 8428 01598 0138 +155 +134 143032 033 035 000 00
201930 1816N 05837W 8429 01597 0139 +153 +134 143031 031 034 000 00
202000 1818N 05837W 8431 01597 0138 +155 +133 144029 030 036 000 03
202030 1820N 05837W 8429 01597 0139 +153 +134 142029 029 034 002 00
202100 1822N 05838W 8425 01602 0138 +153 +134 144029 030 033 000 00
202130 1823N 05838W 8430 01596 0136 +157 +133 148030 030 035 000 00
202200 1825N 05838W 8431 01594 0138 +155 +133 150030 031 035 000 00
202230 1827N 05838W 8431 01596 0140 +152 +134 150030 031 036 000 03
202300 1829N 05838W 8433 01594 0139 +151 +134 147032 033 035 000 00
202330 1831N 05838W 8432 01593 0139 +154 +135 143032 033 033 000 03
202400 1833N 05838W 8429 01598 0137 +156 +135 139031 031 032 000 00
202430 1835N 05838W 8430 01597 0137 +160 +136 145030 031 031 000 03
202500 1836N 05839W 8428 01606 0140 +161 +137 145029 030 999 999 03
202530 1836N 05840W 8424 01602 0137 +161 +138 143027 028 031 000 03
202600 1834N 05842W 8429 01598 0138 +156 +140 139028 029 033 000 03
202630 1833N 05843W 8430 01597 0139 +155 +141 142029 029 033 000 03
202700 1832N 05844W 8432 01593 0136 +155 +141 147029 030 029 002 00
202730 1831N 05845W 8430 01594 0136 +154 +141 149030 031 028 004 00
202800 1830N 05846W 8427 01599 0136 +157 +141 147026 027 030 003 00
$$
;

Back!

[lrak]

The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a gathering the rest of the storm now. Maybe will see this thing come together before our visible loops are gone. Look at how the center stalls just SW of Guataloupe and begins its recovery.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

I know radar is not the best for position but IMO you can't deny the vortex is consolidating SW of NHC position.

[HURAKAN]

[Emmett_Brown]

Last 2 nights have featured huge blow-ups of convection starting in the early evening... wonder if that trend will continue to allow Erika to live another day...

To my tired eyes, the last 2 visible frames suggest that there may be another LLC forming near 17.5 60.5, but that is just by eyeballing the photos.