ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[AtlanticWind]

The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a gathering the rest of the storm now. Maybe will see this thing come together before our visible loops are gone. Look at how the center stalls just SW of Guataloupe and begins its recovery.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

I know radar is not the best for position but IMO you can't deny the vortex is consolidating SW of NHC position.

Looks to me like a smaller vortex but not part of the overall circulation

[Aric Dunn]

ok everybody .. one single vortex must at some point absorb the other otherwise they are going to continue to rotate around each other...

[AtlanticWind]

Last 2 nights have featured huge blow-ups of convection starting in the early evening... wonder if that trend will continue to allow Erika to live another day...

To my tired eyes, the last 2 visible frames suggest that there may be another LLC forming near 17.5 60.5, but that is just by eyeballing the photos.

That is what I am seeing also.

[Sanibel]

Aric's center is probably the mid-level center that is hard to distinguish from the surface spiral that is confirmed by Wxman57's instruments.

[fasterdisaster]

This is probably the most indecisive storm I've ever seen.

[Aric Dunn]

Last 2 nights have featured huge blow-ups of convection starting in the early evening... wonder if that trend will continue to allow Erika to live another day...

To my tired eyes, the last 2 visible frames suggest that there may be another LLC forming near 17.5 60.5, but that is just by eyeballing the photos.

I hope not otherwise we are going to have the same problem . because the reason for the blow up was also the reason for spitting out so many vorts.. some of you mid west people would be familiar with some convective cluster set ups..

[tailgater]

Mabe yet another center SE of Guataloupe or maybe this was the main 1 all along.
check out the radar loop
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

[lrak]

The vortex SW of Guataloupe is a gathering the rest of the storm now. Maybe will see this thing come together before our visible loops are gone. Look at how the center stalls just SW of Guataloupe and begins its recovery.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

I know radar is not the best for position but IMO you can't deny the vortex is consolidating SW of NHC position.

Looks to me like a smaller vortex but not part of the overall circulation

Yes, I can understand that, but I see it stalling and starting to wrap up again?

[jlauderdal]

This is probably the most indecisive storm I've ever seen.

its going to be an indecisive wave sooner rather than later if this continues much longer

[Emmett_Brown]

Last 2 nights have featured huge blow-ups of convection starting in the early evening... wonder if that trend will continue to allow Erika to live another day...

To my tired eyes, the last 2 visible frames suggest that there may be another LLC forming near 17.5 60.5, but that is just by eyeballing the photos.

That is what I am seeing also.

Last night's burst also featured the reformation of a center to the NE in the main convection. The storm went "stationary", but IMO was actually just spinning up a new LLC, while the western one dissipated, hence the appearance of being stationary.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric's center is probably the mid-level center that is hard to distinguish from the surface spiral that is confirmed by Wxman57's instruments.

no.. i pointed out that the circ in the carrib is probably going to be the one to take over i only circled the other one cause i want to point out that its rotating around the the one in carrib... which still means a centroid or mean center at the moment..

[Derek Ortt]

major flooding possible for the islands. May even spread into the Windward Islands

[wxman57]

Satellite does show an interesting area near 17.5N/60.5W. No surface obs in the area, and recon has only passed east of that spot. If a new center was to form, that's where it would form.

[SouthFLTropics]

Normally I would be frustrated by the shear as I like to watch these systems develop and track them. In this case I am happy for the shear as I am sure our friends in the islands are as well. As persistent as Erika has been I don't want to imagine her potential if given the perfect environment. She is one tough lady!

SFT

[Emmett_Brown]

Mabe yet another center SE of Guataloupe or maybe this was the main 1 all along.
check out the radar loop
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

Yup, that does look suspiciously like a center...

[HURAKAN]

772
URNT15 KNHC 022038
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 27 20090902
202830 1829N 05848W 8428 01597 0137 +155 +141 139026 027 031 002 00
202900 1828N 05849W 8429 01596 0137 +155 +141 137028 029 030 001 00
202930 1826N 05850W 8430 01594 0138 +155 +142 140026 027 030 003 00
203000 1825N 05851W 8430 01594 0137 +155 +141 145024 025 032 002 00
203030 1824N 05852W 8429 01597 0137 +155 +140 154025 025 029 002 00
203100 1823N 05854W 8429 01598 0135 +157 +140 154024 024 031 001 00
203130 1822N 05855W 8430 01594 0133 +160 +141 149025 025 029 003 00
203200 1821N 05856W 8432 01593 0133 +160 +142 145026 027 032 001 00
203230 1820N 05857W 8430 01594 0133 +156 +142 139029 030 031 002 00
203300 1819N 05858W 8429 01595 0133 +158 +142 138026 028 032 002 00
203330 1818N 05900W 8430 01595 0134 +155 +141 141023 024 031 002 00
203400 1816N 05901W 8430 01594 0133 +156 +141 142022 023 032 001 00
203430 1815N 05902W 8428 01594 0134 +155 +141 138023 023 032 003 00
203500 1814N 05903W 8430 01592 0135 +154 +141 136022 023 029 003 00
203530 1813N 05904W 8429 01595 0133 +157 +139 139022 023 031 001 00
203600 1812N 05906W 8429 01595 0134 +155 +139 135022 022 031 000 00
203630 1811N 05907W 8429 01593 0132 +158 +140 137023 024 029 003 00
203700 1810N 05908W 8429 01591 0129 +161 +140 135024 024 028 001 00
203730 1808N 05909W 8429 01597 0131 +160 +140 133022 023 027 001 00
203800 1807N 05911W 8429 01592 0129 +160 +140 132020 021 027 001 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Mabe yet another center SE of Guataloupe or maybe this was the main 1 all along.
check out the radar loop
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

that is the same one i circled a min ago it has just rotated around as i said .. I like the link.. now i dont have to save any more images..

[fd122]

What direction is this thing going? The more I look at it the more it seems to be going SW. When will this storm turn to the WNW?

[Aric Dunn]

What direction is this thing going? The more I look at it the more it seems to be going SW. When will this storm turn to the WNW?

the mean center motion seems to be West at the moment.. the vorts are rotating around and provide no real help.. it did however move wsw earlier and now more west and later more wnw .. the motion is describe very well in rotational dynamics..

[HURAKAN]