ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[wxman57]

What direction is this thing going? The more I look at it the more it seems to be going SW. When will this storm turn to the WNW?

I think you need to specify which center.

[HURAKAN]

301
WTNT41 KNHC 022045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA IS ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE
PART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF
THE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
ERIKA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44
KT AND SFMR DATA WERE BETWEEN 35-40 KT. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ERIKA HAS A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD WITH INCREASING SHEAR LIKELY AS THE
STORM NEARS THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 250 MB OVER ERIKA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...OR
INCREASE...AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RESTRENGTHENING OF ERIKA...THE
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING. THE NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 5 DAYS. ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS THAT
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA CAUSES AN EVEN FASTER DEMISE OF ERIKA.

THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 275/9. DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST PRIMARILY BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKER INITIAL STATE OF ERIKA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 16.4N 61.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 16.8N 62.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.4N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 66.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


950
WTNT31 KNHC 022044
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7
WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AND ERIKA COULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 61.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

If the shear was blowing WSW to ENE along an elliptical surface structure that was also oriented WSW to ENE a seemingly new center would appear but it would be the mid-level reflection of the main Guadeloupe surface feature.

[jlauderdal]

What direction is this thing going? The more I look at it the more it seems to be going SW. When will this storm turn to the WNW?

West at 9 knots according to this

WTNT21 KNHC 022044
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 66.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 73.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Decomdoug]

Indecision may or may not be Erica's problem, but my head hurts with all the vortexes, ULLs, LLLs, and rotational dynamics. This is getting stranger than a collage calculus class. I'm going to leave work at 5 and head to the nearest bar until the pain goes away.

[StormClouds63]

Unless the upper air pattern changes, significant weakening appears a likely scenario:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_1.html

A lot can change in just a few days, but the environment appears hostile for any significant development (at least in the near-term).

As a side note, the future Fred? looks very fishy according to GFS. I know, it's early. See thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106437

[HURRICANELONNY]

This so called storm is either going to go poof or turn into a major hurricane. That's my forecast. I'm sticking to it.

[Aric Dunn]

Indecision may or may not be Erica's problem, but my head hurts with all the vortexes, ULLs, LLLs, and rotational dynamics. This is getting stranger than a collage calculus class. I'm going to leave work at 5 and head to the nearest bar until the pain goes away.

haha.. sounds like a plan which one we can do some shots.. and pass out for a couple days till it has made up its mind..

[sfwx]

NHC thinks POOF.....




000
WTNT41 KNHC 022045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA IS ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE
PART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF
THE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
ERIKA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44
KT AND SFMR DATA WERE BETWEEN 35-40 KT. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ERIKA HAS A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD WITH INCREASING SHEAR LIKELY AS THE
STORM NEARS THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 250 MB OVER ERIKA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...OR
INCREASE...AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RESTRENGTHENING OF ERIKA...THE
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING. THE NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 5 DAYS. ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS THAT
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA CAUSES AN EVEN FASTER DEMISE OF ERIKA.

THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 275/9. DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST PRIMARILY BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKER INITIAL STATE OF ERIKA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 16.4N 61.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 16.8N 62.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.4N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 66.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[wxman22]

WTNT41 KNHC 022045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA IS ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE
PART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF
THE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
ERIKA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44
KT AND SFMR DATA WERE BETWEEN 35-40 KT. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ERIKA HAS A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD WITH INCREASING SHEAR LIKELY AS THE
STORM NEARS THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 250 MB OVER ERIKA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...OR
INCREASE...AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RESTRENGTHENING OF ERIKA...THE
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING. THE NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 5 DAYS. ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS THAT
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA CAUSES AN EVEN FASTER DEMISE OF ERIKA.

THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 275/9. DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST PRIMARILY BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKER INITIAL STATE OF ERIKA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[Aric Dunn]

hey look its magic ... the euro ..

it just pops out of no where near florida.. lol or its something else. lol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[fd122]

What direction is this thing going? The more I look at it the more it seems to be going SW. When will this storm turn to the WNW?

I think you need to specify which center.

Haha...this storm is so frustrating to tract! I don't even know what to expect from this. Thanks Aric Dunn for your response as well.

[thetruesms]

This storm seems more and more like a test problem from one of my dynamics classes than something that actually happens in the atmosphere

[HURAKAN]

105
URNT15 KNHC 022048
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 28 20090902
203830 1806N 05912W 8430 01590 0128 +160 +141 127024 026 026 002 00
203900 1805N 05913W 8431 01591 0132 +153 +142 134029 030 026 005 00
203930 1804N 05914W 8428 01593 0135 +148 +141 138027 029 029 004 00
204000 1803N 05915W 8432 01588 0131 +153 +139 140025 026 031 004 00
204030 1801N 05917W 8429 01591 0128 +158 +136 147026 027 029 001 00
204100 1800N 05918W 8431 01587 0127 +160 +134 150027 027 029 002 00
204130 1759N 05919W 8429 01588 0125 +161 +135 147025 025 028 002 00
204200 1758N 05920W 8430 01589 0122 +167 +136 144025 025 030 001 00
204230 1757N 05921W 8430 01591 0122 +166 +137 143023 024 031 000 00
204300 1756N 05923W 8431 01585 0120 +167 +139 143023 024 029 003 00
204330 1755N 05924W 8430 01588 0121 +164 +141 148025 026 030 001 00
204400 1754N 05925W 8430 01585 0121 +164 +142 153026 027 029 001 00
204430 1753N 05926W 8433 01582 0121 +163 +143 155028 029 028 002 00
204500 1751N 05927W 8429 01589 0121 +162 +144 156028 030 028 003 00
204530 1750N 05929W 8429 01585 0119 +166 +144 157024 025 030 000 00
204600 1749N 05930W 8428 01589 0119 +166 +145 151025 026 028 002 00
204630 1748N 05931W 8431 01588 0121 +164 +146 148026 027 032 001 00
204700 1747N 05932W 8429 01587 0123 +161 +146 140026 026 033 001 00
204730 1746N 05933W 8432 01585 0129 +151 +145 140020 021 036 004 00
204800 1745N 05934W 8439 01578 0122 +163 +142 149020 021 034 000 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

This storm seems more and more like a test problem from one of my dynamics classes than something that actually happens in the atmosphere

well technically its fluid dynamics.. but in some cases we can treat it as just rotational dynamics to get a reasonable estimate .. lol although this system is far from being reasonable.. lol

[HURRICANELONNY]

If Erika doesn't make it. I won't be surprised. I would be if it turns into a Hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Don't underestimate the power that Erika still has to cause a lot of destruction. This track is worse, in my opinion, than if it had become a hurricane and menaced a US city. Combine Erika's speed, convective activity and Hispaniola's mountains and you get a recipe for utter destruction.

[Over my head]

What a weird storm. I remember something you guys discussed on here called the Fujiwhara effect ? Could this happen here or is that just when two already formed hurricanes get close to each other ?

[HURAKAN]

What a weird storm. I remember something you guys discussed on here called the Fujiwhara effect ? Could this happen here or is that just when two already formed hurricanes get close to each other ?

You need two storms to get really close to each other.

[HURAKAN]