ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

676
URNT15 KNHC 022058
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 29 20090902
204830 1744N 05936W 8429 01588 0121 +165 +139 150020 021 031 000 03
204900 1742N 05937W 8432 01586 0121 +164 +139 152023 023 031 000 03
204930 1741N 05938W 8429 01589 0121 +164 +140 146024 024 032 000 03
205000 1740N 05939W 8429 01586 0119 +166 +142 148021 022 031 000 00
205030 1739N 05940W 8430 01586 0118 +169 +142 155022 022 033 000 03
205100 1738N 05942W 8430 01585 0116 +168 +143 156020 021 033 000 03
205130 1737N 05943W 8430 01585 0120 +162 +144 152020 021 033 000 00
205200 1736N 05944W 8426 01591 0117 +166 +144 152020 020 033 000 03
205230 1735N 05945W 8431 01585 0115 +170 +143 157019 019 033 000 03
205300 1733N 05946W 8436 01578 0114 +170 +142 161019 020 033 000 03
205330 1732N 05947W 8428 01587 0111 +175 +141 161019 019 033 000 03
205400 1731N 05949W 8429 01586 0111 +172 +142 157018 018 032 000 03
205430 1730N 05950W 8430 01583 0114 +170 +144 153019 020 032 000 00
205500 1729N 05951W 8429 01584 0112 +170 +146 155019 019 034 000 03
205530 1728N 05952W 8429 01583 0112 +169 +147 158018 018 034 000 00
205600 1727N 05953W 8432 01579 0110 +170 +148 156018 019 033 000 03
205630 1726N 05954W 8431 01579 0108 +171 +149 158019 020 033 000 03
205700 1725N 05956W 8430 01580 0105 +174 +150 159017 017 033 000 03
205730 1723N 05957W 8430 01580 0107 +171 +151 161015 016 034 000 00
205800 1722N 05958W 8430 01577 0105 +173 +151 157016 017 035 000 00
$$
;

[expat2carib]

major flooding possible for the islands. May even spread into the Windward Islands

Thank Derek for naming my new home island Dominica in your update http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062009.html

I seems we don't exist for the NHC and we haven't had one single warning here on this relatively poor island.

[blazess556]

18z nam seems to give erika another chance.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

What a weird storm. I remember something you guys discussed on here called the Fujiwhara effect ? Could this happen here or is that just when two already formed hurricanes get close to each other ?

You need two storms to get really close to each other.

no you just need to vortices's near each other to get the same effect.. technically we have that ..
but the fujiwhara is for two tropical cyclone but the effect is the same as to smaller vorts as this..

thats what i have been posting about for the last 3 hours .. lol

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

I even went as far south as Martinique for TS conditions expected

NHC does not issue warnings for the LA. This is done by the local governments. The gov't of Barbados just issued a TS warning for Dominica. 3 hours late it seems

also, getting convection firing near the center. Need to make sure that does not persist. Wind field looks better defined on 1km visible

[Ola]

major flooding possible for the islands. May even spread into the Windward Islands

Thank Derek for naming my new home island Dominica in your update http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062009.html

I seems we don't exist for the NHC and we haven't had one single warning here on this relatively poor island.

Hey there expat

You guys keep safe. I was in Dominica last June. BEAUTIFUL island. I took a tour with "El cubano". He told us that when David came through in 1979, ppl say that the only things left standing were the mountains.

[Aric Dunn]

well this is the best i can find .. on short notice.. for an example of needs to happen..

http://www.mae.cornell.edu/fdrl/images/merger.jpg

[Over my head]

What a weird storm. I remember something you guys discussed on here called the Fujiwhara effect ? Could this happen here or is that just when two already formed hurricanes get close to each other ?

You need two storms to get really close to each other.

no you just need to vortices's near each other to get the same effect.. technically we have that ..
but the fujiwhara is for two tropical cyclone but the effect is the same as to smaller vorts as this..

thats what i have been posting about for the last 3 hours .. lol

Thanks and sorry Aric, didn't realize it had been mentioned. You guys are typing faster then I can keep up. It's a blur!

[HURAKAN]

615
URNT15 KNHC 022108
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 30 20090902
205830 1721N 05959W 8430 01576 0104 +172 +150 159018 019 035 001 00
205900 1720N 06000W 8427 01580 0101 +176 +149 163014 015 035 000 00
205930 1719N 06002W 8429 01579 0110 +163 +148 155014 014 035 003 00
210000 1718N 06003W 8430 01580 0106 +171 +147 169017 018 036 002 00
210030 1717N 06004W 8422 01584 0103 +176 +145 176016 018 035 002 00
210100 1716N 06005W 8429 01579 0104 +172 +145 178016 018 030 000 00
210130 1714N 06006W 8423 01583 0104 +170 +146 172015 016 024 001 00
210200 1713N 06007W 8431 01575 0104 +171 +147 167014 015 022 003 00
210230 1712N 06009W 8432 01573 0100 +176 +147 170014 015 023 000 00
210300 1711N 06010W 8434 01571 0100 +178 +148 169015 016 025 001 00
210330 1710N 06011W 8428 01580 0105 +169 +149 183015 016 027 002 00
210400 1709N 06012W 8426 01579 0103 +172 +150 189013 014 029 001 03
210430 1708N 06013W 8428 01576 0110 +156 +151 196016 017 032 005 03
210500 1706N 06013W 8424 01578 0105 +168 +149 201013 014 033 002 03
210530 1705N 06014W 8425 01582 0100 +178 +147 198013 014 030 000 00
210600 1704N 06016W 8429 01577 0097 +183 +146 206013 014 029 002 00
210630 1703N 06017W 8436 01572 0096 +184 +146 197011 012 031 005 00
210700 1702N 06018W 8417 01593 0113 +160 +149 194012 012 033 008 00
210730 1702N 06020W 8428 01582 0108 +168 +149 195012 013 027 005 00
210800 1700N 06021W 8435 01571 0110 +163 +147 203011 011 025 005 00
$$
;

[expat2carib]

major flooding possible for the islands. May even spread into the Windward Islands

Thank Derek for naming my new home island Dominica in your update http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062009.html

I seems we don't exist for the NHC and we haven't had one single warning here on this relatively poor island.

Hey there expat

You guys keep safe. I was in Dominica last June. BEAUTIFUL island. I took a tour with "El cubano". He told us that when David came through in 1979, ppl say that the only things left standing were the mountains.

Thanks! David was a disaster for the isle.

[Aric Dunn]

well this is the best i can find .. on short notice.. for an example of needs to happen..

http://www.mae.cornell.edu/fdrl/images/merger.jpg

sorry not the right link

go here
http://www.mae.cornell.edu/fdrl/researc ... tions.html

very bottom of page to see the merging of two vortexes

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

972
URNT15 KNHC 022118
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 31 20090902
210830 1659N 06022W 8429 01577 0103 +176 +145 205011 012 024 003 00
210900 1658N 06023W 8430 01577 0103 +175 +145 208010 010 025 002 00
210930 1657N 06024W 8426 01582 0103 +175 +146 206009 010 024 002 00
211000 1656N 06026W 8429 01581 0104 +174 +149 209010 010 023 002 00
211030 1655N 06027W 8432 01576 0103 +175 +151 212010 010 024 000 00
211100 1654N 06028W 8430 01578 0102 +175 +153 210010 010 025 000 00
211130 1653N 06029W 8429 01577 0100 +175 +155 208010 010 023 000 00
211200 1652N 06030W 8433 01573 0099 +175 +156 206010 010 021 002 00
211230 1650N 06031W 8429 01577 0099 +180 +158 205008 008 022 002 00
211300 1649N 06033W 8430 01575 0098 +180 +159 205006 007 024 001 00
211330 1648N 06034W 8429 01577 0098 +180 +160 193007 008 023 000 00
211400 1647N 06035W 8428 01577 0099 +179 +162 199009 012 022 000 00
211430 1646N 06036W 8435 01569 0101 +173 +162 186011 012 021 002 00
211500 1645N 06037W 8429 01577 0106 +166 +162 178013 014 019 004 00
211530 1644N 06038W 8432 01575 0104 +170 +160 191013 015 022 000 00
211600 1643N 06040W 8426 01580 0104 +170 +159 191011 013 021 003 00
211630 1641N 06041W 8422 01584 0104 +169 +157 192011 012 020 002 03
211700 1641N 06042W 8425 01582 0104 +170 +155 184011 012 023 000 03
211730 1640N 06044W 8430 01574 0104 +168 +154 184011 012 023 000 00
211800 1640N 06045W 8430 01576 0104 +167 +154 186010 011 024 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[caribsue]

I even went as far south as Martinique for TS conditions expected

NHC does not issue warnings for the LA. This is done by the local governments. The gov't of Barbados just issued a TS warning for Dominica. 3 hours late it seems

also, getting convection firing near the center. Need to make sure that does not persist. Wind field looks better defined on 1km visible

A public thank you to all of you that keep us in the islands informed. We DEPEND on you guys, for the above very reason. Sad really when you think about it.

[Aric Dunn]

point being .. at some point of them will eat the other..

[PTrackerLA]

Actually looks like Erika is becoming slightly better organized with that convection forming near the center. Convection from the east also getting closer as well as a better circulation signature on visible.

[Stormcenter]

I just got back from a long meeting and read the NHC discussion. I wouldn't bet too much on Erika doing too much more (as things look now) then a heavy rain maker. I cannot ever recall reading such a doom and gloom discussion from the NHC concerning any named tropical system. Erika like it's siblings is fighting a losing battle with shear. I personally cannot see any reason to argue any of their (NHC) points. This of course is just my opinion based on how things stand currently. By the way yes I do know that even a TS can cause death and destruction so I'm not down playing her potential.

[StormClouds63]

This storm isn't the one that will worry GOM'ers. Just wait for this monster coming off of Africa that won't recurve! 2 week EURO is nasty......

Now back to E

This was asked about in another thread on the large wave exiting Africa. Excuse cross-posting. Perhaps an issue in a couple of weeks.