ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

753
URNT15 KNHC 022128
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 32 20090902
211830 1639N 06047W 8429 01576 0103 +170 +154 184010 010 023 000 00
211900 1639N 06049W 8430 01575 0103 +170 +154 178009 010 022 000 03
211930 1639N 06050W 8439 01568 0103 +170 +154 172010 010 021 000 03
212000 1639N 06052W 8428 01577 0105 +168 +155 179012 012 023 000 03
212030 1640N 06054W 8430 01579 0105 +170 +155 185013 014 025 000 00
212100 1640N 06055W 8429 01577 0104 +170 +155 186014 014 024 000 00
212130 1640N 06057W 8429 01574 0101 +170 +154 184014 015 024 000 03
212200 1641N 06059W 8432 01569 0099 +170 +154 191014 015 024 000 00
212230 1641N 06100W 8429 01574 0099 +175 +154 199012 012 024 000 03
212300 1641N 06102W 8429 01572 0102 +169 +154 203009 010 024 000 03
212330 1642N 06104W 8427 01576 0101 +172 +154 198006 007 024 000 03
212400 1642N 06105W 8429 01576 0099 +175 +153 183007 009 023 000 00
212430 1643N 06107W 8430 01574 0097 +177 +153 184008 011 024 000 00
212500 1643N 06109W 8428 01575 0099 +173 +155 173012 014 029 005 00
212530 1643N 06110W 8433 01571 0109 +159 +155 173010 014 032 010 00
212600 1644N 06112W 8429 01575 0103 +167 +153 190007 011 028 002 00
212630 1644N 06114W 8430 01573 0099 +174 +151 164007 008 026 000 00
212700 1644N 06115W 8433 01572 0107 +161 +150 172009 011 031 006 00
212730 1645N 06117W 8431 01573 0105 +167 +149 179006 008 027 002 00
212800 1645N 06119W 8426 01578 0102 +170 +148 177006 008 027 000 03
$$
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[storms NC]

Yeah they have her as a Low by Sunday at 2PM

[HURAKAN]

[OuterBanker]

FYI, local broadcasts are giving the all clear signal for this weekend. Basically said that TPC trac and conditions will not produce a storm to worry about. But they did use through Sunday as a caveat.

Good news. Let's hope it stays that way. I also noticed that quite a few models dissapate it after going through islands.

Even the gfdl doesn't make much of it now, a far cry from previous runs.

Oddly, nogaps is stronger than it's previos runs and has it as a fish.

[xironman]

point being .. at some point of them will eat the other..

Do you think the Leewards might give enough friction to tighten this thing up?

[jlauderdal]

point being .. at some point of them will eat the other..

Do you think the Leewards might give enough friction to tighten this thing up?

no friction dancing for erica, this system is in serious jeopardy

[HURAKAN]

676
URNT15 KNHC 022138
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 33 20090902
212830 1645N 06121W 8429 01576 0097 +179 +147 136003 005 024 000 03
212900 1646N 06122W 8431 01572 0098 +179 +148 095004 004 025 000 00
212930 1646N 06124W 8429 01573 0098 +176 +149 077006 007 024 000 00
213000 1646N 06126W 8429 01574 0099 +174 +150 080008 012 023 004 00
213030 1647N 06128W 8433 01572 0101 +172 +149 067011 011 028 000 00
213100 1647N 06129W 8427 01577 0101 +174 +149 063010 011 025 000 00
213130 1648N 06131W 8429 01578 0099 +177 +149 069008 009 027 000 03
213200 1648N 06133W 8429 01578 0099 +179 +151 078010 011 025 000 00
213230 1648N 06135W 8430 01575 0100 +178 +153 076009 010 026 000 03
213300 1649N 06136W 8430 01577 0099 +180 +154 070011 012 024 000 00
213330 1649N 06138W 8429 01578 0100 +179 +157 065010 013 026 000 00
213400 1649N 06140W 8425 01583 0098 +180 +158 072008 009 026 000 00
213430 1650N 06142W 8428 01578 0096 +181 +159 075009 009 025 000 03
213500 1650N 06143W 8433 01573 0096 +181 +161 067009 009 026 000 00
213530 1650N 06145W 8426 01581 0095 +185 +162 068010 011 026 000 00
213600 1651N 06147W 8430 01578 0096 +182 +163 066014 016 028 000 00
213630 1651N 06148W 8434 01571 0096 +182 +165 072014 015 027 000 00
213700 1651N 06150W 8433 01573 0096 +185 +165 073013 013 027 000 00
213730 1652N 06152W 8426 01581 0095 +181 +166 070014 014 027 000 03
213800 1652N 06154W 8434 01577 0100 +180 +167 065013 014 025 000 03
$$
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[Evil Jeremy]

Erika looks very poor this afternoon. Still though, it has nice convection. If it could reform its center inside the convection it could restrengthen but it looks like it is trying to pull its LLC back in.

[Nimbus]

Derek mentioned a little convection firing over the center. If the center starts getting inflow and outflow aligned efficiently overnight there may be something to look at tomorrow morning.

[HURAKAN]

[Bocadude85]

Does look like the LLC is starting to get closer to the convection.

[SouthFLTropics]

I wouldn't right off Erika just yet...If the shear and the islands do get her then so be it...but she has a lot of convection to work with and if her LLC keeps shifting around she may just hang on. Furthermore I remember another system a couple of years ago that looked terrible until it got into the Bahamas...We all know what happened then...Hopefully the shear will stay strong along the entire route...

SFT

[BigA]

Erika looks very poor this afternoon. Still though, it has nice convection. If it could reform its center inside the convection it could restrengthen but it looks like it is trying to pull its LLC back in.

I think it looked worse 5 hours or so ago. Nevertheless, survival precarious at best. However, is there any practical difference between Erika reforming her center to the east versus pulling the current center back under the convection, especially as Derek said that the current center looks better defined than earlier today?

[deltadog03]

I am wondering about that area up there as well wxman. That's the area I was pointing out earlier.

[BigA]

I am wondering about that area up there as well wxman. That's the area I was pointing out earlier.

What area are you and Wxman refering to? Thank you.

[Aric Dunn]

I am wondering about that area up there as well wxman. That's the area I was pointing out earlier.

they are having fun together just rotating around making us think one is better than the other.. lol

which one will when and have dinner.. must happen at some point.. lol

[HURAKAN]

916
URNT15 KNHC 022148
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 34 20090902
213830 1651N 06155W 8425 01587 0099 +181 +167 059011 012 999 999 03
213900 1650N 06155W 8436 01570 0094 +186 +169 057011 011 025 001 03
213930 1648N 06155W 8430 01580 0095 +185 +170 062011 012 028 000 00
214000 1646N 06155W 8428 01579 0095 +181 +171 056011 012 029 000 00
214030 1644N 06155W 8432 01575 0096 +180 +172 058008 008 024 000 00
214100 1643N 06155W 8429 01575 0095 +180 +173 061007 008 026 000 03
214130 1641N 06155W 8431 01576 0095 +180 +173 073008 008 025 000 03
214200 1639N 06155W 8429 01576 0095 +180 +173 071010 010 025 000 03
214230 1638N 06155W 8430 01577 0096 +180 +173 069010 010 025 000 03
214300 1636N 06155W 8429 01578 0096 +178 +172 062008 009 026 000 00
214330 1634N 06155W 8430 01576 0097 +176 +170 071007 008 028 000 03
214400 1633N 06155W 8430 01575 0096 +175 +169 067007 008 028 000 03
214430 1631N 06155W 8430 01575 0096 +179 +168 068007 008 029 000 03
214500 1629N 06154W 8429 01577 0095 +179 +168 057009 010 027 000 03
214530 1628N 06154W 8430 01574 0097 +175 +168 053008 009 026 000 03
214600 1626N 06154W 8432 01572 0096 +176 +169 053008 009 025 000 03
214630 1624N 06154W 8428 01580 0096 +178 +169 057008 009 027 000 03
214700 1623N 06154W 8428 01575 0097 +176 +169 051008 009 026 000 00
214730 1621N 06154W 8429 01577 0097 +176 +168 050009 010 025 000 03
214800 1619N 06154W 8426 01577 0096 +176 +168 033008 011 025 000 03
$$
;

Got to go!

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

I'm back from the dentist and can take it in.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021904 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/17:49:10Z
B. 16 deg 38 min N
060 deg 50 min W
C. 925 mb 742 m
D. 35 kt
E. 314 deg 93 nm
F. 067 deg 28 kt
G. 314 deg 63 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C / 458 m
J. 23 C / 458 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0306A ERIKA OB 03 CCB
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 17:27:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 44 KT SE QUAD 18:21:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
SFC CNTR 136 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 42 KTS SE QUAD 18:19:30Z
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