ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[southerngale]

I have a feeling about that storm coming off of the Africa coast... Has anyone seen it on satellite?

The Talkin' Tropics forum has a thread on it as this forum is only for active storms and Invests.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106437

And welcome to Storm2k!

[chzzdekr81]

I have a feeling about that storm coming off of the Africa coast... Has anyone seen it on satellite?

The Talkin' Tropics forum has a thread on it as this forum is only for active storms and Invests.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106437

And welcome to Storm2k!

Thanks! Sorry for posting in the wrong thread. I wasn't paying attention. Back to Erika...

[tolakram]

Looking at the sat pics I noticed this page from NHC now has flash links!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml


And no, I have no opinion of this blob names Erika.

[Emmett_Brown]

If I am not mistaken, that new convection blowup is right where the convergence is greatest on this 18z map: (note that the map shows an older sat photo from earlier)

[wxman57]

The 11PM advisory should be interesting.

Friends on St Kitts have stopped posting. The electric grid is marginal on SKN. With the wind field primarily to the east (NHC recon).....it could be a long night on SKN.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure looks like Erika is going to slide into the Caribbean Sea.

I think your friends on St. Kitts are just fine. The island is reporting winds of only 15-20 mph and no rain.

[Bocadude85]

just to let yo all know that is the type of convection that is needed to tigthen this thing up .. it is right over the mean center and growing.. i would bet next recon find a better organized system if that convection continues..

And where exactly is the mean center?

hehe the advisory position ..

Haha ok well makes sense

[cycloneye]

[Nimbus]

So this new burst of convection in the northwest quadrant is now over the dominant center? there is still a vortex with some convection southwest of that being pulled back in.

[Bocadude85]

If I am not mistaken, that new convection blowup is right where the convergence is greatest on this 18z map: (note that the map shows an older sat photo from earlier)

This really does not look like a tropical storm anymore.

[robbielyn]

I think erika looks like a defeathered chicken with its head getting chopped. Poor thing cant see how she is going to survive she looks like ana now. It will be downgraded tomorrow.

[expat2carib]

I'm in the middle of this bursting area at the moment (Dominica)

The last hours we had moderate to heavy showers almost non stop.

Almost no winds but now the rain stopped and now we have moderate gusts. My question is: It's said before that the most serious weather is on the eastern side of the system. Anybody has any idea when the eastern part arrives and will be departed again?. Just wondering

Thanks!

[Weatherboy1]

All I have to say is if this thing reforms to the north, the only thing that'll come to mind is that movie "What About Bob?" Specifically the scene where Richard Dreyfuss says "He's not gone. He's NEVER gone! See ..." only to open the door and see Bill Murray back ... again. It's the storm that just doesn't seem to want to go gently into that good night. LOL

[O Town]

Is that the MLC taking off toward the N.E. approximately at 18N 56W?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

[wxman57]

There's little to no surface convergence near where the NHC finally put the center (the vortex I followed all day). Winds are blowing NE-ENE to the north of the vortex and to the SW south of it. Could open up into a wave very easily tonight.

Just checked the mid to low-level steering across Florida and the eastern Gulf in 6 days and it indicates moderate SSW to NNE flow across the region. So regardless of its strength or organization, it should turn north near Florida.

[terrapintransit]

Killer avatar O Town!

[Aric Dunn]

There's little to no surface convergence near where the NHC finally put the center (the vortex I followed all day). Winds are blowing NE-ENE to the north of the vortex and to the SW south of it. Could open up into a wave very easily tonight.

Just checked the mid to low-level steering across Florida and the eastern Gulf in 6 days and it indicates moderate SSW to NNE flow across the region. So regardless of its strength or organization, it should turn north near Florida.

wow .. ummm.. you say that like in 4 to 5 days that same flow will be there .. lol dont think so ..

[Emmett_Brown]

There's little to no surface convergence near where the NHC finally put the center (the vortex I followed all day). Winds are blowing NE-ENE to the north of the vortex and to the SW south of it. Could open up into a wave very easily tonight.

Just checked the mid to low-level steering across Florida and the eastern Gulf in 6 days and it indicates moderate SSW to NNE flow across the region. So regardless of its strength or organization, it should turn north near Florida.

Wx, what do you think of the new blowup... perhaps reformation of the LLC near this hot tower?

[wxman57]

I'm in the middle of this bursting area at the moment (Dominica)

The last hours we had moderate to heavy showers almost non stop.

Almost no winds but now the rain stopped and now we have moderate gusts. My question is: It's said before that the most serious weather is on the eastern side of the system. Anybody has any idea when the eastern part arrives and will be departed again?. Just wondering

Thanks!

Heavy squalls extend out about 100 miles east of Dominica. Moving west at 8-10 mph, you should expect moderate to heavy rain all night. Winds will be from the SE-S at 25-30 mph. Might see a few brief periods of 30-40 mph sustained wind. Higher gusts in heavier squalls. Bare minimum TS at most. Send some of that rain to Texas.

[artist]

Is that the MLC taking off toward the N.E. approximately at 18N 56W?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

I saw that too and wondered what the heck is that now?! lol

[thetruesms]

Well, continuing the Great Plains thunderstorm analogy from earlier in the thread, that sure reminds me of a splitting supercell