ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Derek Ortt]

how many EWRC's will this undergo. Looks like ANOTHER has already started

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[wxman57]

There were a few forecasts on Monday of a landfall near Corpus Christi, but Houston remained inside the cone from 10AM CDT Sunday, Sept. 7th up until landfall, as seen here:

That's what I was "remembering, Wxman...my 60 year old brain is a bit rusty at times. Thank you for the correction. The point being, though, that a great number of people (laymen) around here pretty quit watching because the line wasn't pointed here.

Give me a minute to find the one I was talking about...may have the wrong day.

Oh, I fully agree. Can't ever turn your back on an approaching storm that's not heading right at you. They change course quickly.

[Derek Ortt]

WTCN31 CWHX 221215
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:15 AM ADT SATURDAY 22 AUGUST 2009.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
=NEW= HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
65 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE BILL IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA
ON SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 65 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND MORE
THAN 300 KILOMETRES WEST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE AND THESE WINDS
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC PORTIONS OF WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE BILL
TO THE COAST GUSTS OF 100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/BOWYER-ROUSSEL

WWCN31 CWHX 221255
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:55 AM ADT SATURDAY 22 AUGUST 2009.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY
ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
KINGS COUNTY
HANTS COUNTY
COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH AND COBEQUID PASS
COLCHESTER COUNTY NORTH
PICTOU COUNTY
ANTIGONISH COUNTY
INVERNESS COUNTY - SOUTH OF MABOU
INVERNESS COUNTY - MABOU AND NORTH
VICTORIA COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY P.E.I.
KINGS COUNTY P.E.I.
BUCHANS AND THE INTERIOR
BURIN PENINSULA
RAMEA - CONNAIGRE
CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO
ST. GEORGE'S
CORNER BROOK AND VICINITY
DEER LAKE - HUMBER VALLEY
GROS MORNE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM CONDITION
POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
GUYSBOROUGH COUNTY
SYDNEY METRO AND CAPE BRETON COUNTY
RICHMOND COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[mpic]

Found it. When people saw this, they turned off the weather. I'd rather be a little paranoid than dead any day of the week! My boss is now a believer.

[yzerfan]

And something to remember with Ike was that the Florida Panhandle was never in the cone and never in a hurricane/tropical storm warning area, and that kind of storm was big enough to send surf to overwash a number of roads on barrier islands there, as well as causing some minor but significant beach erosion damage in spots.

Glad to see they're putting warnings up for Cape Cod since there will be impact there.

[mpic]

And something to remember with Ike was that the Florida Panhandle was never in the cone and never in a hurricane/tropical storm warning area, and that kind of storm was big enough to send surf to overwash a number of roads on barrier islands there, as well as causing some minor but significant beach erosion damage in spots.

Glad to see they're putting warnings up for Cape Cod since there will be impact there.

Amen to that...that water can cause more damage than I ever imagined.

[btangy]

4 model grand global ensemble from 8/22/09 at 00Z. Although main ensemble cluster is slightly S of Halifax, still a real danger for them.

[jinftl]

Great dialogue on Ike...but let's keep this the Bill thread.....the ike conversation would be a great new thread though....

[jinftl]

This is a large system with a wind field extending far from the center....nova scotia is going to at least see tropical storm conditions....look at where Cape Cod falls in relation to the forecast track range....and they are anticipating 50mph winds and have a ts warning.....

4 model grand global ensemble from 8/22/09 at 00Z. Although main ensemble cluster is slightly S of Halifax, still a real danger for them.

[cycloneye]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

..HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY...A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM
VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
700 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 710 MILES...1140
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...35.1N 68.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT43 KNHC 221442
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD
BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS
AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS
BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
PACKED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 35.1N 68.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 38.0N 68.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 42.5N 65.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 46.0N 59.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 49.5N 49.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1200Z 58.0N 9.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1200Z 63.0N 5.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Cryomaniac]

Great dialogue on Ike...but let's keep this the Bill thread.....the ike conversation would be a great new thread though....

Some idiots are claiming this is going to hit New York City as a cat 4: GLP link (may have nsfw language / opinions)

[wxman57]

Good thing Nova Scotia has nothing to worry about from Bill.

[CrazyC83]

Could this dip back southward over the Gulf Stream after hitting Atlantic Canada and remain a tropical cyclone?

[CrazyC83]

Good thing Nova Scotia has nothing to worry about from Bill.

Are you kidding? They have a potential hurricane to be worried about. Although if it stays offshore, I doubt they will experience hurricane-force sustained winds on land.

[HurricaneBelle]

Good thing Nova Scotia has nothing to worry about from Bill.

Are you kidding? They have a potential hurricane to be worried about. Although if it stays offshore, I doubt they will experience hurricane-force sustained winds on land.

Sarcasm, dude.

[Sanibel]

The trough is tilted slightly positive. Bill is on track from estimates of several days ago.


So far this year, we are being allowed to keep our lanai screens. (Something that takes over a year to get replaced after they are knocked out by a hurricane).


On the other hand, if I were to view the visible NW Atlantic Loop by eye I would say Bill was going to hit Nova Scotia.

[HURAKAN]

New mission

[HURAKAN]

011
URNT15 KNHC 221544
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 18 20090822
153500 2934N 06734W 3599 08430 0505 -220 -468 211030 030 022 000 00
153530 2936N 06734W 3599 08425 0505 -220 -467 212029 029 023 000 00
153600 2939N 06734W 3601 08420 0504 -220 -473 215030 030 021 000 00
153630 2941N 06734W 3599 08420 0504 -222 -464 218031 031 018 001 00
153700 2944N 06734W 3601 08423 0504 -218 -463 215031 031 015 002 00
153730 2946N 06734W 3598 08428 0504 -217 -484 214031 031 019 000 00
153800 2949N 06735W 3599 08424 0504 -215 -482 214030 030 020 000 00
153830 2951N 06735W 3601 08420 0503 -215 -481 215031 031 021 000 00
153900 2954N 06735W 3599 08429 0503 -215 -485 214032 032 020 000 00
153930 2956N 06735W 3599 08428 0502 -217 -485 215033 034 021 000 00
154000 2959N 06735W 3599 08417 0500 -218 -482 215034 034 021 000 00
154030 3001N 06735W 3599 08422 0500 -220 -483 218035 035 019 000 00
154100 3004N 06735W 3599 08423 0499 -218 -484 217035 035 022 000 00
154130 3006N 06735W 3599 08425 0500 -215 -486 215035 035 021 000 00
154200 3009N 06735W 3599 08425 0499 -210 -494 217034 034 023 000 00
154230 3011N 06735W 3598 08425 0500 -211 -505 216034 034 024 000 00
154300 3014N 06735W 3599 08420 0500 -213 -495 216035 036 025 000 00
154330 3016N 06735W 3599 08421 0497 -211 -495 218035 036 026 000 00
154400 3019N 06736W 3599 08415 0500 -218 -501 217035 036 026 000 00
154430 3021N 06736W 3602 08416 0499 -217 -486 214036 036 027 000 00
$$
;

[Derek Ortt]

I think he was being sarcastic

[HURAKAN]

536
URNT15 KNHC 221554
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 19 20090822
154500 3023N 06736W 3599 08421 0498 -215 -494 214036 036 027 000 03
154530 3026N 06736W 3599 08419 0499 -214 -498 214035 036 025 000 00
154600 3028N 06736W 3599 08421 0499 -210 -495 216034 035 024 000 00
154630 3031N 06736W 3599 08418 0498 -212 -498 216034 036 025 000 00
154700 3033N 06736W 3599 08420 0498 -211 -469 218035 036 026 000 00
154730 3036N 06736W 3601 08415 0498 -211 -348 216034 035 028 000 03
154800 3038N 06736W 3599 08418 0497 -210 -393 215033 034 025 000 00
154830 3041N 06736W 3601 08415 0498 -215 -289 214034 035 025 000 00
154900 3043N 06737W 3601 08420 0495 -217 -252 213035 036 025 000 00
154930 3046N 06737W 3599 08420 0496 -215 -255 212037 037 026 000 00
155000 3048N 06738W 3599 08412 0495 -213 -327 215035 036 024 000 00
155030 3051N 06738W 3601 08410 0494 -214 -430 212036 036 024 000 00
155100 3053N 06739W 3599 08412 0494 -210 -450 213038 038 023 000 00
155130 3056N 06739W 3599 08413 0492 -210 -481 211038 038 024 000 00
155200 3058N 06740W 3599 08413 0492 -205 -490 212036 036 025 000 00
155230 3101N 06740W 3598 08410 0492 -205 -485 212036 036 025 000 00
155300 3103N 06740W 3600 08406 0490 -204 -362 210035 035 025 000 00
155330 3105N 06741W 3599 08411 0491 -205 -371 213037 037 026 000 00
155400 3108N 06741W 3601 08411 0490 -205 -436 216036 036 025 000 00
155430 3110N 06742W 3601 08410 0492 -202 -440 214035 036 027 000 00
$$
;