ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[chrisjslucia]

Sitting out here in the north of St Lucia, the sky is lit up with the lightning display from Erika. It's like a continuous searchlight effect illuminating the sky to the north west. No thunder, so this must be centred some long way off but it indicates there is still some serious force in the lady, maybe over Guadaloupe or Martinique. After following the story here and elsewhere for a few days, it seems amazing she could have turned south at all.

[wxman57]

There's little to no surface convergence near where the NHC finally put the center (the vortex I followed all day). Winds are blowing NE-ENE to the north of the vortex and to the SW south of it. Could open up into a wave very easily tonight.

Just checked the mid to low-level steering across Florida and the eastern Gulf in 6 days and it indicates moderate SSW to NNE flow across the region. So regardless of its strength or organization, it should turn north near Florida.

Wx, what do you think of the new blowup... perhaps reformation of the LLC near this hot tower?

Don't see much of a blow-up anywhere. Convection never looked so ragged. Pressures aren't falling across the islands. I think Erika is continuing to weaken. May be TD now, possibly wave.

[Emmett_Brown]

There's little to no surface convergence near where the NHC finally put the center (the vortex I followed all day). Winds are blowing NE-ENE to the north of the vortex and to the SW south of it. Could open up into a wave very easily tonight.

Just checked the mid to low-level steering across Florida and the eastern Gulf in 6 days and it indicates moderate SSW to NNE flow across the region. So regardless of its strength or organization, it should turn north near Florida.

Wx, what do you think of the new blowup... perhaps reformation of the LLC near this hot tower?

Don't see much of a blow-up anywhere. Convection never looked so ragged. Pressures aren't falling across the islands. I think Erika is continuing to weaken. May be TD now, possibly wave.

I was referring to the blowup at 17.5, 60.5

[artist]

Sitting out here in the north of St Lucia, the sky is lit up with the lightning display from Erika. It's like a continuous searchlight effect illuminating the sky to the north west. No thunder, so this must be centred some long way off but it indicates there is still some serious force in the lady, maybe over Guadaloupe or Martinique. After following the story here and elsewhere for a few days, it seems amazing she could have turned south at all.

welcome chris! thanks for your report from where you are. Keep us posted!

[expat2carib]

I'm in the middle of this bursting area at the moment (Dominica)

The last hours we had moderate to heavy showers almost non stop.

Almost no winds but now the rain stopped and now we have moderate gusts. My question is: It's said before that the most serious weather is on the eastern side of the system. Anybody has any idea when the eastern part arrives and will be departed again?. Just wondering

Thanks!

Heavy squalls extend out about 100 miles east of Dominica. Moving west at 8-10 mph, you should expect moderate to heavy rain all night. Winds will be from the SE-S at 25-30 mph. Might see a few brief periods of 30-40 mph sustained wind. Higher gusts in heavier squalls. Bare minimum TS at most. Send some of that rain to Texas.

Thanks!! Aren't those Texas cowboys good to pipelines. Bring a line here and I will safe the water in my cistern to you guys

[wzrgirl1]

Don't count her out yet.

[marciacubed]

Has a tropical system ever divided in half and formed 2 separate storms? I was just wondering.

[chzzdekr81]

Don't count her out yet.

Yeah, I wouldn't count her out either. But there's alot of uncertainty with this storm. You never know what's going to happen...

[SunnyFla]

I don't think two storms could last that close to each other. I would be interested in hearing whether this could break into two different storms also.

[chzzdekr81]

Well, continuing the Great Plains thunderstorm analogy from earlier in the thread, that sure reminds me of a splitting supercell

Is it just me, or is Erika moving South-Southwest?

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, continuing the Great Plains thunderstorm analogy from earlier in the thread, that sure reminds me of a splitting supercell

Is it just me, or is Erika moving South-Southwest?

She has been drifting south westish today.

[fd122]

Really quiet and calm here in Antigua. No wind, no rain but some lightning can be seen far away in the ocean.

[Annie Oakley]

Erika is one recalcitrant child of the tropics...what a fighter!

[artist]

is anyone else noting that spin she has going now in her far upper right hand corner? Look at it on loop in the enhanced and it is clearly there. 18/56
OTown asked if it was the mlc and hasn't gotten a response either. Anyone?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Bocadude85]

is anyone else noting that spin she has going now in her far upper right hand corner? Look at it on loop in the enhanced and it is clearly there. 18/56
OTown asked if it was the mlc and hasn't gotten a response either. Anyone?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Im not sure about the spin but I would say that this has opened up into a wave.

[lonelymike]

I saw the face of Michael Jackson in a thunderstorm near the center.

[Stormcenter]

Wow how things can change in 24 hours. It doesn't surprise me one bit.
This in "my opinion" is one big mess. Let's see how Erika looks tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

is anyone else noting that spin she has going now in her far upper right hand corner? Look at it on loop in the enhanced and it is clearly there. 18/56
OTown asked if it was the mlc and hasn't gotten a response either. Anyone?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

No, don't see it.

[Aquawind]

Artist I think it's a Mid Level Circulation you might see on IR2..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, look at on this shortwave loop. To the northeast of all the convection. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html