ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[MWatkins]

Link to NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0m&tau=180

MW

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 030527
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 04 20090903
051730 1759N 06418W 8428 01601 0127 +178 +109 043024 024 023 000 00
051800 1757N 06419W 8426 01600 0126 +178 +109 045023 023 021 000 00
051830 1756N 06419W 8429 01597 0126 +176 +109 045023 023 021 001 00
051900 1754N 06419W 8429 01600 0128 +176 +109 048022 022 022 000 00
051930 1752N 06419W 8427 01601 0129 +175 +108 048022 022 023 000 00
052000 1750N 06419W 8429 01599 0127 +175 +108 049022 022 020 000 00
052030 1748N 06420W 8428 01599 0129 +175 +108 050021 021 022 000 00
052100 1747N 06420W 8429 01599 0129 +175 +108 051021 021 024 000 03
052130 1745N 06420W 8429 01597 0128 +175 +108 050020 020 024 000 03
052200 1743N 06420W 8428 01597 0127 +175 +107 051020 021 022 000 00
052230 1741N 06421W 8428 01599 0128 +175 +107 052020 020 019 002 00
052300 1740N 06421W 8428 01598 0127 +175 +107 048020 020 022 000 00
052330 1738N 06421W 8429 01596 0124 +177 +106 044019 020 021 001 00
052400 1736N 06421W 8428 01597 0126 +174 +106 044020 020 022 000 00
052430 1734N 06422W 8430 01595 0124 +177 +107 045019 020 023 000 00
052500 1733N 06422W 8429 01596 0123 +179 +106 044019 019 021 000 00
052530 1731N 06422W 8428 01596 0123 +180 +106 045019 019 023 000 00
052600 1729N 06422W 8426 01599 0124 +176 +106 043020 020 018 002 00
052630 1727N 06423W 8428 01597 0124 +175 +107 044018 019 018 002 00
052700 1725N 06423W 8426 01604 0128 +172 +108 042019 020 018 001 03
$$
;

[deltadog03]

Thanks for the 2 cents bro!! Ya this chick is very hard to nail down for sure. I will say this tho, it appears that she is starting to move fairly quickly now. Or atleast some. I know the angle sucks, but here is the 5z sat pic..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

Notice back at 345z here is the last one from our sat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir2-l.jpg

It atleast appears that she has/is moving at some pace now. The new sat pic at 615z will be telling for sure.

[deltadog03]

Dang!!! Your right, it puts a serious one in the bahamas then stalls a bit and shoots it due north to HAT. MW look at my post in the other threat about the SAT pics. Tell me what you think, if you don't mind.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030537
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 05 20090903
052730 1724N 06422W 8436 01587 0125 +172 +108 044018 018 015 000 03
052800 1723N 06420W 8428 01595 0124 +175 +108 043017 018 011 002 03
052830 1722N 06419W 8429 01594 0124 +174 +109 043017 017 004 004 03
052900 1721N 06418W 8430 01590 0124 +173 +109 046016 016 999 999 03
052930 1720N 06417W 8426 01595 0124 +173 +109 048015 016 007 003 03
053000 1718N 06416W 8429 01592 0123 +173 +109 044017 018 008 004 03
053030 1717N 06414W 8428 01594 0123 +174 +109 043018 018 017 001 00
053100 1716N 06413W 8427 01594 0122 +175 +109 048018 018 020 000 00
053130 1715N 06412W 8429 01591 0120 +175 +110 053018 019 018 000 00
053200 1714N 06411W 8426 01595 0119 +177 +110 051018 019 021 001 00
053230 1713N 06409W 8430 01589 0118 +180 +111 051018 018 023 001 00
053300 1711N 06408W 8430 01591 0118 +178 +111 053017 018 023 000 00
053330 1710N 06407W 8420 01599 0118 +177 +112 043018 021 013 003 00
053400 1709N 06406W 8430 01590 0120 +173 +112 042018 018 006 002 00
053430 1708N 06405W 8429 01590 0121 +175 +112 043017 017 016 000 00
053500 1707N 06403W 8429 01590 0120 +175 +112 042017 017 019 000 00
053530 1706N 06402W 8426 01593 0117 +177 +112 043017 018 018 001 00
053600 1704N 06401W 8429 01590 0117 +180 +112 044018 019 020 000 03
053630 1703N 06400W 8428 01590 0116 +180 +113 045019 020 019 000 00
053700 1702N 06359W 8429 01592 0116 +180 +113 041018 019 017 001 00
$$
;

[MWatkins]

Dang!!! Your right, it puts a serious one in the bahamas then stalls a bit and shoots it due north to HAT. MW look at my post in the other threat about the SAT pics. Tell me what you think, if you don't mind.

First of all, I have a cat sitting on my keyboard...Nimbus loves to be around when I am up late nights...

Second, I do think the NW center is either reforming or splitting from the parent trough axis. The GFS and NOGAPS are keying in on this idea, and I bet we would have a different GFDL solution if it had been initialized a degree further north.

We should get a little clue soon when the intermediate advisory comes out in terms of what the NHC is thinking. But yes, I am totoally on board, it does look like we are seeing the WNW movement that has been advertised for days!

Good call man.

MW

[deltadog03]

Here is the 3z mid shear map. If she tries to go north of islands then (atleast the midshear) won't be as bad. But, hell then we might see upper shear....

[hurricanetrack]

HWRF refuses to give up. I suppose we will just have to wait and see! Wow.

[Dave]

[WeatherEmperor]

Dang!!! Your right, it puts a serious one in the bahamas then stalls a bit and shoots it due north to HAT. MW look at my post in the other threat about the SAT pics. Tell me what you think, if you don't mind.

First of all, I have a cat sitting on my keyboard...Nimbus loves to be around when I am up late nights...

Second, I do think the NW center is either reforming or splitting from the parent trough axis. The GFS and NOGAPS are keying in on this idea, and I bet we would have a different GFDL solution if it had been initialized a degree further north.

We should get a little clue soon when the intermediate advisory comes out in terms of what the NHC is thinking. But yes, I am totoally on board, it does look like we are seeing the WNW movement that has been advertised for days!

Good call man.

MW

Hey Mike. Quick question. What exactly do you mean the GFDL would have a different solution if it initialized a degree further north? Would the solution show more of a north turn after the Bahamas or more south?

<RICKY>

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 030547
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 06 20090903
053730 1701N 06357W 8429 01588 0114 +181 +113 040019 020 015 001 00
053800 1700N 06356W 8426 01590 0112 +185 +113 038018 019 009 003 00
053830 1659N 06355W 8429 01587 0112 +185 +113 038018 019 015 000 00
053900 1657N 06354W 8428 01590 0111 +181 +114 037019 020 017 000 00
053930 1656N 06352W 8428 01590 0111 +181 +114 037019 020 008 002 00
054000 1655N 06351W 8428 01587 0108 +187 +114 039018 018 009 001 00
054030 1654N 06350W 8429 01587 0107 +188 +115 042018 018 015 000 00
054100 1653N 06349W 8429 01589 0107 +188 +115 040018 018 010 000 00
054130 1652N 06347W 8425 01591 0106 +190 +116 041018 018 012 001 00
054200 1650N 06346W 8429 01586 0107 +187 +117 042018 018 014 000 00
054230 1649N 06345W 8425 01591 0109 +183 +117 039017 018 013 000 00
054300 1648N 06344W 8429 01584 0108 +185 +118 040016 017 011 000 00
054330 1647N 06343W 8428 01586 0108 +185 +118 036016 017 011 001 00
054400 1646N 06341W 8426 01587 0108 +180 +117 028015 016 013 000 00
054430 1645N 06340W 8430 01583 0108 +182 +117 027016 016 006 001 00
054500 1643N 06339W 8425 01589 0109 +180 +117 029015 016 014 000 03
054530 1642N 06338W 8429 01585 0110 +180 +117 030014 015 010 000 00
054600 1641N 06336W 8428 01586 0111 +180 +117 026016 016 013 000 00
054630 1640N 06335W 8429 01583 0106 +183 +117 026014 015 005 000 00
054700 1639N 06334W 8428 01586 0106 +185 +117 022014 015 009 000 00
$$
;

[thetruesms]

Well, I think we have a new and improved LLC. Run the loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html
Speed that up a bit, (helps) and this is what I see...

[img]http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/5323/ir2l.jpg[img]

I don't know - I keep watching and watching, and I just don't see anything I'd feel comfortable calling an LLC there. Maybe some hints though, and I'm really interested in seeing what recon will find there. They didn't really check out that area to my satisfaction the last time out, but I hope it will have a little more focus this time.

[deltadog03]

Mike I agree as well, IF*** that does form the new center then it will def. break away from the parent. I really hope recon goes up there.

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 030557
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 07 20090903
054730 1637N 06333W 8428 01585 0107 +184 +117 018015 016 009 001 00
054800 1636N 06331W 8429 01586 0107 +185 +117 012012 013 012 000 00
054830 1635N 06330W 8427 01586 0106 +185 +117 005013 013 012 001 00
054900 1634N 06329W 8428 01585 0106 +183 +117 000012 013 013 001 00
054930 1632N 06328W 8428 01586 0105 +185 +117 002013 014 010 000 00
055000 1631N 06326W 8429 01582 0103 +186 +117 001014 015 006 001 00
055030 1630N 06325W 8427 01584 0102 +186 +117 002013 014 005 000 00
055100 1629N 06324W 8425 01586 0102 +188 +118 002014 014 006 000 00
055130 1628N 06322W 8431 01582 0101 +190 +118 003014 014 000 002 00
055200 1626N 06321W 8426 01584 0101 +190 +118 004014 014 000 000 00
055230 1625N 06320W 8428 01582 0101 +190 +119 002013 014 000 001 03
055300 1624N 06319W 8425 01585 0101 +186 +119 352012 012 000 002 03
055330 1623N 06317W 8428 01584 0102 +185 +119 339011 012 004 000 00
055400 1621N 06316W 8429 01582 0103 +185 +119 335011 011 003 001 00
055430 1620N 06315W 8428 01583 0104 +181 +120 333011 012 001 001 00
055500 1619N 06313W 8428 01586 0104 +180 +120 333012 012 000 003 03
055530 1618N 06312W 8429 01581 0104 +180 +119 340011 011 004 000 00
055600 1617N 06311W 8429 01586 0106 +181 +119 338010 010 003 001 03
055630 1616N 06309W 8430 01582 0105 +180 +119 336009 009 002 000 03
055700 1616N 06307W 8427 01585 0105 +180 +119 335010 010 001 000 03
$$
;

[deltadog03]

Ya, I think it might have been the start of one trying to get down to the sfc. I mean, towards the end of that loop you can see atleast the hint of the dark clouds starting to rotate. But, hell it maybe my eyes since I am up so late.

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 030607
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 08 20090903
055730 1616N 06306W 8426 01585 0105 +180 +119 337009 010 000 001 03
055800 1617N 06304W 8430 01578 0103 +181 +119 338009 009 999 999 03
055830 1617N 06303W 8428 01581 0103 +185 +118 343009 009 999 999 03
055900 1618N 06301W 8428 01580 0102 +183 +118 340009 009 999 999 03
055930 1619N 06259W 8428 01580 0102 +183 +118 325009 009 999 999 03
060000 1619N 06258W 8425 01584 0102 +185 +118 327008 009 000 003 03
060030 1620N 06257W 8428 01582 0101 +185 +118 328008 008 999 999 03
060100 1621N 06255W 8428 01580 0097 +187 +118 324009 009 999 999 03
060130 1622N 06253W 8427 01579 0098 +187 +119 328009 009 999 999 03
060200 1623N 06252W 8429 01579 0099 +185 +119 320009 010 999 999 03
060230 1623N 06250W 8428 01579 0098 +185 +120 313008 008 999 999 03
060300 1624N 06249W 8426 01582 0101 +182 +119 320006 006 999 999 03
060330 1625N 06247W 8430 01576 0098 +182 +120 309007 008 999 999 03
060400 1626N 06246W 8428 01577 0093 +189 +120 305007 008 999 999 03
060430 1627N 06245W 8428 01576 0092 +191 +119 296007 007 999 999 03
060500 1628N 06244W 8429 01576 0093 +190 +120 296006 007 999 999 03
060530 1630N 06243W 8429 01575 0092 +190 +120 303004 005 999 999 03
060600 1631N 06242W 8429 01574 0091 +190 +121 302004 005 999 999 03
060630 1633N 06241W 8426 01577 0088 +193 +122 295005 006 999 999 03
060700 1634N 06240W 8429 01572 0091 +189 +122 283005 005 999 999 03
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

I see a possible low there too, and pressures are dropping where the plane is heading