ATL : INVEST 93L

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It will probably bring additional rain showers where it makes landfall.
Not much tropical development IMO.

[brunota2003]

And, with the loss of diurnal heating, along with land interaction and less outflow boundaries to work with, the storms go all but "poof"

[senorpepr]

Late, but there isn't a 06Z package (yet?)

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280018
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0018 UTC SUN JUN 28 2009
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090628 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        090628  0000   090628  1200   090629  0000   090629  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.0N  87.4W   21.1N  88.7W   21.8N  89.5W   22.2N  90.3W
BAMD    20.0N  87.4W   20.9N  88.5W   21.6N  89.6W   22.0N  90.6W
BAMM    20.0N  87.4W   20.9N  88.6W   21.7N  89.6W   22.1N  90.5W
LBAR    20.0N  87.4W   20.9N  88.5W   21.8N  89.7W   22.5N  90.5W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          32KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        090630  0000   090701  0000   090702  0000   090703  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.5N  90.8W   23.1N  92.5W   23.8N  95.1W   25.0N  98.7W
BAMD    22.3N  91.3W   22.8N  92.5W   24.3N  93.3W   26.0N  94.6W
BAMM    22.5N  91.2W   23.2N  92.7W   24.3N  94.5W   25.4N  97.1W
LBAR    23.2N  91.0W   24.6N  90.5W   27.1N  87.7W   31.4N  81.3W
SHIP        47KTS          59KTS          61KTS          62KTS
DSHP        45KTS          57KTS          59KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.0N LONCUR =  87.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  19.0N LONM12 =  86.4W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  17.8N LONM24 =  85.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Nimbus]

There is still some low level cloud movement off Cozumel but trying to identify things using the IR loops is like reading tea leaves. Convection looks like it is sprouting again, but I doubt the NHC will be in a hurry to put this back in orange status unless we see a big change in the visible imagery this afternoon. The 42056 buoy further east is still showing a low pressure around 29.86 with winds from roughly 145 degrees.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Its pining for the fjords.

[senorpepr]

From the 1205Z TWD... (Sent out REALLY early)

A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W TO 14N90W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 2N90W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

[senorpepr]

ABNT20 KNHC 281131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[Ed Mahmoud]

A run of the GFDL where it doesn't dissipate in 6 or 12 hours...

Looking as pathetic as it has ever looked on satellite, but:

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

Time=12:00z-8:00 AM EDT
Position=Latitud,20.7n - Longitud,88.0w
Winds=25 kts
Pressure=1009 mbs
System=Disturbance

AL, 93, 2009062812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[senorpepr]

Notice they finally posted a 06Z position along with this 12Z position.

It'll be interesting to see what the TCPOD says. I'm assuming today's 18Z mission is canx, but what about future missions...

[gone2beach]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal observation from my walk on the beach last evening...strong breeze (15-20 mph) coming in from the south bringing some small surf to the normally placid gulf coast. Water temp felt quite a bit cooler then it has in weeks.

[cycloneye]

The BAM models suite has some life ahead for 93L.

262
WHXX01 KWBC 281235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SUN JUN 28 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090628 1200 090629 0000 090629 1200 090630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 88.9W 21.9N 89.8W 22.3N 90.5W
BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.3N 89.1W 21.6N 90.2W 22.1N 91.1W
BAMM 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 89.0W 21.8N 90.0W 22.3N 90.8W
LBAR 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 89.0W 22.1N 89.8W 22.9N 90.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090630 1200 090701 1200 090702 1200 090703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 91.5W 24.2N 93.5W 25.8N 96.4W 27.5N 99.9W
BAMD 22.4N 91.6W 23.2N 93.0W 24.8N 94.1W 25.8N 96.4W
BAMM 22.6N 91.5W 23.9N 93.1W 25.6N 95.0W 26.9N 98.3W
LBAR 23.7N 90.9W 25.8N 90.1W 29.6N 85.2W 36.3N 73.8W
SHIP 43KTS 53KTS 55KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 57KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 88.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 87.4W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



Irak,maybe after all you see something in the form of surf from this.

[wxman57]

Nothing there on surface obs. If there's any turning associated with the axis of the "highly-amplified wave" then I can't find it. I'd call it a low-amplitude, weak wave. Pressures are steady, convection disorganized, nothing to focus convection. Models aren't forecasting anything to develop now. Trof digging south into east Gulf is producing increased shear across the region today. I'd say development chances are low, maybe 5%-10% now. And likely closer to 5% than 10%.

12Z Surface plot:

[PauleinHouston]

wxman...good morning. Just a novice here, but love the forums and learning. The spot I've centered show some apparent rotation, especially via loop. I'm looking at the Invest 93L IR RGB loop...the rotation there...is that low level??

[lrak]

Good morning all,

Yeah, what is that naked swirl north of 93L?

[lrak]

drool....cycloneye now don't you tease a man that pushed little kids all day yesterday on ankle slappers An eight foot longboard and ankle slappers were the perfect combination for 5 to 7 year all kids. They had a BLAST. Back on topic.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Good morning all,

Yeah, what is that naked swirl north of 93L?

Dead naked swirl super closeup customized visible floater courtesy of NASA


Unofficially, code background color/invisible, I think pro-met Wxman57's ~ 5% odds are about right.

[Derek Ortt]

NEXT INVEST PLEASE!

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with Derek, this disturbance is barely even a disturbance. Needs to be monitored but the ramp up in shear once in the Gulf leaves little chance IMO.

[MGC]

Yea, rather pathetic looking this morning....MGC