ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[leanne_uk]

Think we have our cat 2 on fred
This really is a beautiful looking storm.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS
OF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. FRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS
COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
300/11. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF
20N. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS
A DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.2N 31.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.1N 32.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.4N 33.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.5N 34.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.3N 34.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 20.6N 34.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 23.0N 34.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[O Town]

Good morning Fred.

[HURAKAN]

What a debut for Fred!

[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF takes Fred in a weaker stage all the way to 27N-60W after it goes north.Look at the right of the graphic and see Fred comming in and take the hard left turn.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 31.7W AT 09/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 435 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 28W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 26W-35W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.


$$
HUFFMAN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 13:29:23 N Lon : 31:47:56 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 973.3mb/ 90.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Dean4Storms]

Fred really took off overnight. I think he makes major status before the shear gets him.

[HURAKAN]

00 UTC Best Track=HURRICANE!

AL, 07, 2009090900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 300W, 70, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

AL, 07, 2009090900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 301W, 70, 983, HU

Raise that to 70 knots!

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 13:31:58 N Lon : 31:58:08 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 969.2mb/ 94.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.2 6.0 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -21.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track=HURRICANE!

AL, 07, 2009090900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 300W, 70, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

AL, 07, 2009090900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 301W, 70, 983, HU

Raise that to 70 knots!

Thank you for letting me know of the BT update late last night when I went to bed.

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

Note=There is a jump in the image.

[HURAKAN]

You can already see the shear in front of Fred.

[HURAKAN]

Eye continues to clear out while convection bursts around it!

[Macrocane]

As we said last night, small eyes intensify rapidly. Cloud tops are a little warmer but the overall appearence has improved, I say 95-100 kt on the next advisory. I would really like 100 kt

[cyclonic chronic]

2009SEP09 061500 3.9 991.8/ +3.4 / 63.0 3.9 4.2 4.3
2009SEP09 064500 4.0 990.4/ +3.4 / 65.0 4.0 4.2 4.3
2009SEP09 071500 4.0 990.4/ +3.4 / 65.0 4.0 4.2 4.2
2009SEP09 074500 4.1 988.8/ +3.4 / 67.4 4.1 4.5 6.1
2009SEP09 081500 4.2 987.2/ +3.4 / 69.8 4.2 4.5 6.4
2009SEP09 084500 4.3 985.6/ +3.4 / 72.2 4.3 4.6 6.3
2009SEP09 091500 4.5 982.3/ +3.3 / 77.0 4.5 5.8 6.2
2009SEP09 094500 4.8 976.9/ +3.3 / 84.8 4.8 5.9 6.3
2009SEP09 101500 5.0 973.3/ +3.3 / 90.0 5.0 5.9 6.2
2009SEP09 104500 5.0 973.2/ +3.2 / 90.0 5.0 4.3 4.3
2009SEP09 111500 5.2 969.2/ +3.2 / 94.8 5.2 6.0 6.2

ADT=22.6MB drop in last 5 hrs. this wouldve been a wonderful storm to see recon in. i know it would cost alot of $, but they should have a plane or two on stand-by in the cape verdes for this part of the season. jmo

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak says major cane.

09/1145 UTC 13.5N 32.1W T5.5/5.5 FRED -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html