ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[wxman57]

Those meteo France pics are pretty old, Gustywind. Here's one hot off the press. Shows the center a good bit NW of the NHC 12Z position at 1245Z:

[tolakram]

Where is this wall of shear? The year of unpredictable shear continues.

[jconsor]

Looks like shear will begin the job of killing Henri, and dry, sinking air will finish the job off. I would be surprised if Henri is still around by Thursday night.

Some regeneration is possible if the remnants of Henri turn WSW into the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola doesn't completely destroy the system. The 6z NOGAPS suggests just such a scenario.

[wxman57]

Where is this wall of shear? The year of unpredictable shear continues.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF]

The map you linked to shows 20-30 kts of shear over Henri.

[tolakram]

Where is this wall of shear? The year of unpredictable shear continues.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF]

The map you linked to shows 20-30 kts of shear over Henri.

Correct, but yesterday, heck the previous frame, it showed more with a band of 35 kts just NE of Henri.

Previous Frame


Current Shear analysis


The area of higher shear is clearly shrinking ... at least at this instance, who knows 5 minutes from now.

I didn't believe Henri would ever exist in the first place, but the deep sheared convection continues.

[wxman57]

20-30 kts is still a lot of shear.

[wxman57]

New McIDAS shot. Crossing 57W:

[tolakram]

Roll your own link:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=20&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10

[Evil Jeremy]

20-30 kts is still a lot of shear.

It is a lot, which makes it seem amazing how Henri has organized, strengthened, and how it still has deep convection at the moment.

[wxman57]

I really question that Henri has any sustained 45 kt winds. There's no convection NE of the center. QS indicated winds in the 30kt range NE of the center this morning. A ship 44nm NE of the center was reporting a 30kt ESE wind around 12Z. To the SE of the center is the heavier convection, but there isn't much of a pressure gradient in that direction, and there is little to no inflow into the center. Looks more like a remnant low now with maybe 30 kt winds. Of course, if recon wasn't so busy with all those other storms out there then they could go take a look. Maybe there are some budget restraints in place that are stopping recon flights unless absolutely necessary?

[Dean4Storms]

The French always like running around half naked, I give you Henri!!!

[Aric Dunn]

well as was expected the convection is pulsing yet again as it has .. dont make the mistake of calling something dead for a convective pulse. last night the center was under the convection or at least on the edge it is out running it again but convection should again refire ..

The only change in forecast is for shear weakening, but sinking air may bring about weakening as well again especially if it tracks farther north.

[wxman57]

Sure is dead in here. Here's a new sat pic. 18.9N/57.2 or 57.3W. Remnant swirl moving a little north of west now.

[deltadog03]

lol...yes it its wxman. I am a little suprised about that, but I think most are just tired of seeing sheared messes. IDK, I just want to get passed the season and starting blasting cold fronts down and start winter. haha but, thats me.

[Evil Jeremy]

I am looking at the WV and it is interesting how the convection is resisting the shear. There has been, and still is very deep convection that keeps pulsing though the top of the convection blob keeps on getting sheared off.

[somethingfunny]

Recon flew into Danny and Erika seemingly ad infinitum. I'm not sure why the double standard regarding threat level since Erika was never any more dangerous than Henri is right now. Then again I'm glad most of the board has given up at this point because honestly 226 pages of discussion for Erika was ridiculous.

We'll see what ends up happening with Henri. Any other season and I'd say watch out for this guy....as it is, I'm just going to take a wait-and-see approach.

It's amazing that we may yet see Ida and Joaquin form this season. I have an opinion on naming standards but that's better left for the Talkin Tropics forum.

[tgenius]

My soon to be born son (In December) will be named Joaquin.. I think it would be funny if a named Joaquin Storm actually forms.

[Aric Dunn]

Besides the fact its not a remnant low..

below is the set up presently, my attempt here is to illustrate what most of the models are calling for..

The ULL over PR is forecast to weaken and dive SW as the ridge near florida shifts east. This scenario is important because as the ULL weakens and opens up the models develop a slight Upper high over the area where the ull is now and as i mentioned last night latitude is a huge factor as well the timing of when henri makes it past 60W. The ULL is being pinched (yellow arrows) off and pushed SW in response to the ridge as mentioned previously, most important is how fast this happens and how fast the dry sinking air from the large ridge near florida moves in behind the weakening ULL. what this means is that the ULL will not just go poof and be gone allowing the dry sinking air to fill in, what would happen is a slight boundary would exist for a short time say 24 hours between the weakening ULL and the dry sinking Air. During this transition is when the models develop a slight upper high over the area where Henri should be in response to the ULL migrating SW and weakening. This is the general idea of the models. what they do not agree on is how much shear will exist or how extensive the dry sinking air there will be and how fast this occurs.

it could be that henri moves faster and the low level circ crosses the shear axis and ends up under the present ULL tomorrow before the ULL is able to weaken and move enough, in which case death to Henri is likely as being under the ULL is not especially good for organized convection.

The other scenario is mention previously and depicted in the image below where Henri stays on the diverging side of the shear axis until the ULL opens up and moves SW.

so far however there is no data favoring either scenario as henri is straddling the shear axis this morning and they are moving in tandem for the most part. So it remains to be seen what exactly will happen........ one thing is for sure and that is its maintaing at the moment and if convection fires again here shortly than the waiting will continue if convection does not fire within the next 6 hours or so than dissipation is likely.

sorry for the lengthy post Im at school and wont be around as much today so i figured i would lay out what I was seeing with the current set up

[Sanibel]

There could be a pocket of favorability happening. But 2009 has shown us impressive flare-ups in convection with a displaced surface feature before.


On the other hand the potential is there for Henri to dip into those hot STT's jfl was talking about and move around a Gulf High like Katrina did.

[Aric Dunn]

There could be a pocket of favorability happening. But 2009 has shown us impressive flare-ups in convection with a displaced surface feature before.


On the other hand the potential is there for Henri to dip into those hot STT's jfl was talking about and move around a Gulf High like Katrina did.

hehe.. yes it has and im not especially impressed with Henri this morning .. but as we know we cannot write off systems till they are inland or no energy is left or out to sea..