WTPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.6N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.2N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.6N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.7N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.6N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 143.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS SINCE MOVED WEST OF THE MARIANAS
ISLAND CHAIN AND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD SUPPORT A 30 TO 50 KNOT SYSTEM. A 062331Z ASCAT
IMAGE SUPPORTS THE LOWER END OF THESE ESTIMATES WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
RADAR FIXES FROM PHIK (USING PGUA RADAR), AS WELL AS POSITION FIXES
FROM THE AGENCIES INDENTIFIED IN THE PREVIOUS SENTENCE. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL CLOSELY PACKED AROUND THE
CONSENSUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A
NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE STORM IS POSITIONED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TRANSITORY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
ENHANCES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS THIS TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE TROPICS,
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM, FACILITATING A GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
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