ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[vegastar]

URNT15 KNHC 031017
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 33 20090903
100730 1605N 06210W 8429 01575 0115 +152 +117 236026 028 031 006 00
100800 1604N 06209W 8425 01580 0105 +170 +115 241025 026 030 005 00
100830 1603N 06208W 8429 01576 0109 +166 +113 226025 026 030 005 00
100900 1601N 06206W 8429 01575 0110 +164 +113 225024 025 030 004 00
100930 1600N 06205W 8430 01576 0106 +173 +112 221023 023 031 002 00
101000 1559N 06204W 8431 01578 0108 +175 +111 216023 023 030 003 00
101030 1558N 06203W 8430 01580 0108 +175 +112 213021 022 028 002 00
101100 1557N 06202W 8427 01582 0110 +174 +114 211021 021 027 002 00
101130 1556N 06201W 8430 01578 0112 +172 +117 208021 021 026 002 00
101200 1554N 06200W 8430 01578 0114 +167 +119 208022 023 028 000 00
101230 1553N 06158W 8430 01580 0113 +170 +121 209023 023 025 003 00
101300 1552N 06157W 8430 01581 0114 +168 +123 211026 026 025 002 00
101330 1551N 06156W 8428 01582 0115 +170 +123 208026 027 025 002 00
101400 1550N 06155W 8426 01589 0116 +169 +124 208025 027 025 001 00
101430 1549N 06154W 8429 01585 0116 +171 +124 201026 027 023 002 00
101500 1548N 06153W 8428 01589 0116 +170 +124 199026 029 026 002 00
101530 1546N 06152W 8429 01586 0118 +167 +124 196024 024 027 002 00
101600 1545N 06151W 8426 01590 0121 +166 +124 201022 022 026 004 00
101630 1544N 06149W 8428 01589 0122 +167 +123 200020 020 026 003 00
101700 1543N 06148W 8430 01586 0119 +170 +122 203021 022 026 002 00
$$

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Here is some measurements in Guadeloupe last night related to TS ERIKA:
Meteo-France reported 92 millimeters of water in Basse-Terre near HUC location and 52 millimeters at les "SAINTES" 45 millimeters. Stay tuned hoping that another measurements could occur...
Gustywind

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
510 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...







MON-THU...WHILE THERE ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY DIFFS IN THE H50 PATTERN
OVER THE ERN CONUS BTWN THE NEW 00Z ECM/GFS...BOTH SHOW EROSION OF
THE WRN PORTION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE INVOF FL. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
SINCE THE ECM HAS TRENDED TWD A MUCH LESS COHERENT T.C. FOR SEVERAL
RUNS IN A ROW NOW...IT HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGLY TWD THE
GFS IN BRINGING THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM T.C. "ERIKA" WWD AND THEN
NWWD INTO FL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FCST FOR DAYS
5-7 ALWAYS CARRIES WITH IT INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT COMES TO TROPICAL FEATURES...ITS VERY HARD TO IGNORE THE GFS`
STEADFAST SOLN TWD WHICH THE ECM HAS TRENDED. AS OPEN T-WAVES CAN
BE VERY PRODIGIOUS RAINFALL PRODUCERS/ENHANCERS OVER FL...WED-THU
COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD ACROSS ECFL...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT RAINS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WITH NEAR CLIMO (40) POPS FOR MON/TUE...AND FOR NOW
HAVE CONSERVATIVELY NUDGED POPS UP TO 50 FOR WED-THU WITH FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS LKLY.



SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[vegastar]

URNT15 KNHC 031027
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 34 20090903
101730 1542N 06147W 8431 01589 0121 +171 +122 200022 023 026 001 03
101800 1541N 06146W 8420 01598 0125 +163 +123 200023 025 014 004 03
101830 1541N 06144W 8430 01587 0121 +168 +123 208023 026 021 003 00
101900 1542N 06142W 8429 01590 0127 +158 +123 208029 030 020 003 00
101930 1542N 06140W 8433 01582 0132 +149 +122 197028 029 028 007 00
102000 1542N 06139W 8435 01582 0143 +131 +117 190026 027 023 011 00
102030 1542N 06137W 8427 01588 0132 +150 +111 187021 023 017 003 00
102100 1543N 06135W 8425 01594 0126 +162 +105 192024 025 021 004 00
102130 1543N 06133W 8428 01592 0121 +170 +101 193023 025 020 004 00
102200 1543N 06132W 8429 01589 0122 +170 +099 194025 025 003 002 00
102230 1543N 06130W 8434 01587 0122 +173 +100 197024 025 001 001 00
102300 1544N 06128W 8429 01590 0117 +179 +103 195023 024 000 002 03
102330 1544N 06126W 8429 01590 0115 +180 +106 195024 026 003 000 00
102400 1544N 06125W 8432 01586 0115 +180 +110 192020 022 004 001 00
102430 1544N 06123W 8428 01590 0116 +180 +113 180015 017 013 003 00
102500 1544N 06121W 8432 01588 0124 +167 +117 169012 013 016 002 00
102530 1545N 06119W 8433 01588 0125 +166 +119 185013 015 017 002 00
102600 1545N 06118W 8432 01589 0126 +166 +120 193020 021 017 002 00
102630 1545N 06116W 8427 01594 0124 +169 +120 192024 025 018 002 30
102700 1545N 06114W 8413 01605 0125 +166 +121 189028 031 028 005 00
$$

HURAKAN, could you please take over the HDOBs?

[Gustywind]

Anothers measurements this time given Meteo-France Martinica:
Yesterday night 40 to 120 millimeters have been reported on the island, especially in the North and the area strecthing form St Esprit to St Marie: 118 milllimeters at Trinité, 91 millimeters at St Esprit, 87 millimeters at St Pierre and from 37 to 77 millimeters near Fort-de- France! Not so bad for a weak TS
Sometimes the intensity has been strong! For example between 2AM to 4AM we have reported: 50 millimeters at Trinité, 40 at St Marie, 32 millimeters at St Joseph. These amounts of water have been accompanied by tstorms.

[HURAKAN]

Ok. Thanks for your work!

[HURAKAN]

288
URNT12 KNHC 031028 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 03/09:49:00Z
B. 16 deg 47 min N
062 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1502 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 022 deg 16 kt
G. 263 deg 39 nm
H. 1009 mb
I. 19 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1525 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0406A ERIKA OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 35 KT N QUAD 07:23:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 29 KT SE QUAD 10:19:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 262 / 28 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[HURAKAN]

178
URNT15 KNHC 031037
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 35 20090903
102730 1546N 06112W 8428 01592 0130 +160 +121 194027 029 027 003 00
102800 1546N 06111W 8434 01588 0126 +164 +120 197032 035 030 004 00
102830 1546N 06109W 8438 01582 0127 +163 +118 188033 034 027 006 00
102900 1546N 06107W 8428 01590 0125 +166 +117 193028 031 029 005 00
102930 1546N 06105W 8432 01589 0124 +172 +115 197024 026 028 005 00
103000 1547N 06104W 8429 01592 0123 +174 +112 194025 028 028 006 00
103030 1547N 06102W 8429 01593 0130 +165 +111 186031 033 026 006 00
103100 1547N 06100W 8428 01595 0129 +166 +111 183032 034 027 005 00
103130 1547N 06058W 8427 01598 0131 +164 +112 181036 037 026 006 00
103200 1547N 06057W 8430 01593 0129 +169 +112 184036 036 028 005 00
103230 1548N 06055W 8429 01600 0135 +166 +113 185039 039 025 006 03
103300 1549N 06054W 8429 01594 0133 +165 +114 181037 038 028 008 03
103330 1551N 06054W 8433 01591 0128 +169 +115 183036 038 029 007 00
103400 1553N 06055W 8426 01596 0126 +170 +114 182034 035 030 007 00
103430 1555N 06055W 8433 01590 0126 +169 +112 177035 036 031 007 00
103500 1557N 06055W 8430 01591 0126 +167 +110 175036 037 032 007 03
103530 1559N 06055W 8430 01590 0129 +165 +108 173038 038 031 006 03
103600 1601N 06055W 8429 01593 0132 +159 +106 172039 040 032 005 00
103630 1603N 06055W 8429 01592 0132 +159 +105 168044 045 035 005 00
103700 1605N 06055W 8433 01586 0131 +159 +104 168045 045 033 005 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

Guadeloupe Obs overnight. Peak wind 18 kts at this airport.

TFFR|SP|031000|77.0F|75.0F|94.2%|360|004|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Thunderstorms Rain
TFFR| |030900|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|160|013|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Thunderstorms
TFFR| |030807|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|170|014|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Thunderstorms Rain
TFFR| |030700|78.0F|73.0F|83.6%|180|018|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|In the vicinity Thunderstorms
TFFR| |030600|78.0F|73.0F|83.6%|180|018|028|2147483647.00|999|BKN|In the vicinity Thunderstorms
TFFR|SP|030505|78.0F|77.0F|94.2%|160|014|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Thunderstorms Rain
TFFR| |030400|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|190|013|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFR| |030300|80.0F|75.0F|83.7%|180|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFR| |030200|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|180|010|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFR| |030100|80.0F|77.0F|88.9%|150|011|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFR| |030000|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|190|009|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFR| |022300|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|180|012|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|Shower(s) Rain
TFFR| |022300|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|180|012|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|Shower(s) Rain

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS, SE FL landfall (again) at 144 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Cuber]

Thanks for the upclose and personal updates Gusty ... keep treading water

[HURAKAN]

488
URNT15 KNHC 031047
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 36 20090903
103730 1607N 06055W 8429 01590 0127 +162 +103 168042 043 034 005 00
103800 1609N 06055W 8432 01587 0127 +162 +103 170038 041 031 004 00
103830 1611N 06055W 8428 01589 0124 +165 +103 172035 036 031 004 00
103900 1613N 06055W 8430 01586 0125 +165 +103 173035 035 033 003 00
103930 1615N 06055W 8432 01585 0125 +164 +103 173033 034 032 003 00
104000 1617N 06055W 8430 01588 0127 +161 +104 170032 032 031 003 00
104030 1619N 06056W 8430 01588 0136 +149 +104 174033 033 029 007 00
104100 1621N 06056W 8430 01587 0132 +153 +103 175034 035 031 007 00
104130 1623N 06056W 8429 01593 0134 +154 +101 175035 035 030 007 00
104200 1625N 06056W 8430 01591 0137 +152 +099 178037 038 031 007 00
104230 1627N 06056W 8429 01594 0140 +146 +097 178038 038 032 007 00
104300 1629N 06056W 8432 01590 0149 +133 +095 182039 039 035 012 00
104330 1630N 06056W 8428 01592 0150 +130 +093 178037 037 035 014 00
104400 1632N 06056W 8425 01595 0149 +129 +092 172040 042 047 026 03
104430 1634N 06056W 8423 01597 0151 +130 +090 170045 046 043 025 00
104500 1636N 06056W 8440 01582 0151 +130 +090 156048 049 040 015 00
104530 1638N 06056W 8429 01595 0152 +130 +089 155048 049 039 014 00
104600 1640N 06056W 8429 01590 0149 +130 +089 157048 048 038 018 00
104630 1642N 06056W 8428 01592 0154 +125 +089 149049 050 037 020 00
104700 1644N 06056W 8427 01590 0152 +126 +088 146048 049 040 027 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,that flight level wind at 50kt on last set is good or is flagged?

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN,that flight level wind at 50kt on last set is good or is flagged?

104630 1642N 06056W 8428 01592 0154 +125 +089 149049 050 037 020 00


It's good but it's located in the strongest t-storms. It could be related to the t-storm and not the cyclone

[HURAKAN]

188
URNT15 KNHC 031057
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 37 20090903
104730 1646N 06057W 8428 01588 0149 +129 +088 146049 051 046 033 00
104800 1648N 06057W 8429 01589 0148 +130 +087 151045 047 051 027 00
104830 1650N 06057W 8432 01588 0148 +131 +088 153043 046 049 034 03
104900 1652N 06057W 8411 01609 0148 +131 +089 157042 049 059 050 03
104930 1654N 06057W 8418 01607 0150 +138 +091 137034 037 043 040 03
105000 1656N 06057W 8430 01596 0142 +154 +092 132033 035 029 011 00
105030 1658N 06057W 8428 01596 0147 +143 +092 137032 032 029 017 00
105100 1700N 06057W 8429 01595 0137 +159 +092 137032 033 034 013 00
105130 1702N 06057W 8428 01596 0129 +168 +091 137032 032 028 010 00
105200 1703N 06057W 8429 01598 0137 +160 +091 139033 034 026 009 00
105230 1705N 06057W 8433 01593 0135 +161 +092 140034 035 026 011 03
105300 1707N 06057W 8425 01598 0128 +170 +092 143032 032 032 010 00
105330 1709N 06056W 8433 01592 0132 +167 +093 143034 035 032 009 00
105400 1710N 06055W 8428 01597 0129 +170 +093 143033 034 031 009 00
105430 1712N 06055W 8430 01594 0124 +177 +094 142029 031 032 008 00
105500 1714N 06054W 8427 01597 0133 +164 +095 145031 032 031 011 00
105530 1715N 06053W 8432 01593 0140 +151 +097 145031 033 033 011 00
105600 1717N 06052W 8429 01595 0143 +151 +097 143031 032 032 010 03
105630 1719N 06052W 8431 01593 0144 +150 +096 138031 031 030 009 00
105700 1720N 06052W 8429 01597 0145 +150 +096 136032 032 029 008 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

104730 1646N 06057W 8428 01588 0149 +129 +088 146049 051 046 033 00

51 knots here

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

104730 1646N 06057W 8428 01588 0149 +129 +088 146049 051 046 033 00
104800 1648N 06057W 8429 01589 0148 +130 +087 151045 047 051 027 00
104830 1650N 06057W 8432 01588 0148 +131 +088 153043 046 049 034 03
104900 1652N 06057W 8411 01609 0148 +131 +089 157042 049 059 050 03

59kt SMFR suspect right?