ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 19:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 19:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°29'W (28.N 88.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (268 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:16:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:35:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND

[HURAKAN]

[ozonepete]

Complete VDM decoded.


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 19:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 19:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°29'W (28.N 88.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (268 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:16:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:35:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND

Amazing Ida!

[wxman57]

Kind of strange - a 73kt sfc wind SW of the center in the area with the lowest pressure gradient? Maybe it was a gust? I think they'll keep 60kts at 3pm, though that would be only over a very small area.

[ozonepete]

Kind of strange - a 73kt sfc wind SW of the center in the area with the lowest pressure gradient? Maybe it was a gust? I think they'll keep 60kts at 3pm, though that would be only over a very small area.

Yeah, especially if max flight level was 75KT in the NE quadrant. That's where you would expect the highest winds, definitely not in left rear quadrant.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092008
AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 23 20091109
200030 2650N 08947W 8429 01546 0087 +145 +126 340012 013 003 001 00
200100 2649N 08948W 8425 01552 0089 +141 +128 328011 013 008 000 00
200130 2648N 08949W 8428 01550 0092 +139 +132 330011 012 011 000 00
200200 2646N 08951W 8427 01551 0091 +140 +126 327010 011 008 001 00
200230 2645N 08952W 8432 01544 0092 +140 +125 327009 009 013 000 00
200300 2644N 08953W 8429 01547 0091 +139 +127 331009 010 014 001 00
200330 2643N 08955W 8430 01547 0092 +136 +131 337008 009 010 000 00
200400 2642N 08956W 8429 01550 0093 +136 +136 332007 008 010 001 03
200430 2640N 08957W 8422 01558 0093 +140 +134 291007 007 999 999 03
200500 2639N 08955W 8434 01546 0094 +138 +128 288005 006 999 999 03
200530 2640N 08954W 8435 01540 0092 +138 +128 299004 005 016 000 03
200600 2641N 08952W 8429 01548 0092 +137 +127 312005 005 017 000 00
200630 2641N 08950W 8429 01549 0092 +140 +127 328006 007 015 000 00
200700 2641N 08948W 8430 01547 0092 +140 +128 320007 009 011 000 00
200730 2642N 08946W 8429 01548 0090 +141 +127 314008 009 011 000 00
200800 2642N 08945W 8425 01552 0090 +141 +126 322010 011 013 000 00
200830 2642N 08943W 8428 01549 0088 +141 +127 309011 012 010 000 00
200900 2643N 08941W 8436 01538 0087 +143 +126 292012 013 013 000 03
200930 2643N 08939W 8429 01546 0086 +145 +124 302012 013 010 000 00
201000 2644N 08937W 8425 01550 0084 +148 +124 306013 014 011 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

probably do 75 mph.. mostly because there are alot of steady 65 to 70 mph out there and the chances of it slightly intensifying before landfall seem plausible now. .

[MGC]

Looks like Ida is a hurricane again????

73KTS is about 83mph....MGC

[ozonepete]

probably do 75 mph.. mostly because there are alot of steady 65 to 70 mph out there and the chances of it slightly intensifying before landfall seem plausible now. .

Then they'd have to upgrade to hurricane warnings again. I don't think they will want to do that.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

And some of the 60kts and 70kts from SFMR were unflagged.

[Derek Ortt]

even though they were unflagged, a quick examination of the pressure graident and FL winds shows they're almost certainly bogus

[Aric Dunn]

probably do 75 mph.. mostly because there are alot of steady 65 to 70 mph out there and the chances of it slightly intensifying before landfall seem plausible now. .

Then they'd have to upgrade to hurricane warnings again. I don't think they will want to do that.

not exactly.. but they might i have seen then not put warnings up just prior to landfall..

[deltadog03]

Politics will come into play and I suspect they won't upgrade even though, according to recon, we have a cane.

[Aric Dunn]

even though they were unflagged, a quick examination of the pressure graident and FL winds shows they're almost certainly bogus

well we will see .. but there were quite a few unflagged not just one or two..

[Derek Ortt]

what we have is likely an error with the auto QC procedures. Still a TS based upon recon

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092018
AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 24 20091109
201030 2644N 08935W 8429 01545 0084 +149 +123 302012 013 014 000 00
201100 2644N 08933W 8426 01549 0083 +150 +123 300014 015 011 000 00
201130 2645N 08931W 8429 01545 0082 +150 +122 295015 016 014 000 03
201200 2645N 08930W 8430 01545 0083 +150 +123 298017 018 018 000 00
201230 2645N 08928W 8433 01541 0081 +150 +122 299019 019 018 000 00
201300 2646N 08926W 8433 01541 0079 +153 +122 298019 019 020 000 00
201330 2646N 08924W 8430 01541 0078 +153 +122 296019 020 019 000 00
201400 2646N 08922W 8428 01544 0079 +151 +122 299020 021 021 000 03
201430 2647N 08920W 8430 01539 0074 +156 +120 293020 020 020 000 00
201500 2647N 08918W 8428 01542 0075 +155 +120 294021 021 021 000 00
201530 2648N 08916W 8428 01543 0073 +156 +119 294021 022 020 000 03
201600 2648N 08914W 8429 01541 0072 +159 +118 292023 024 021 000 00
201630 2648N 08912W 8431 01537 0072 +160 +118 292024 024 022 000 00
201700 2649N 08910W 8430 01539 0071 +160 +118 294023 025 022 000 00
201730 2649N 08908W 8430 01540 0069 +162 +117 293026 028 023 000 00
201800 2649N 08906W 8430 01538 0069 +162 +117 289027 028 026 000 03
201830 2650N 08904W 8431 01539 0068 +161 +117 286027 027 025 000 00
201900 2650N 08902W 8429 01540 0068 +161 +117 283028 028 028 000 00
201930 2651N 08900W 8430 01539 0068 +163 +118 282028 028 025 000 00
202000 2651N 08858W 8430 01539 0068 +165 +117 278029 030 027 000 03

[Frank2]

It's definitely beginning to have that extratropical appearance, with only scattered clouds south and west of the center:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

Sounds like Wilma with the strongest winds on the front side.


Just a hurricane gust on a 60-70mph tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]