EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.4N 112.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AND DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
TWO CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HOOKING BANDS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS AT LOW
LATITUDES...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BEYOND 3 DAYS. HOWEVER..GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS COULD HAPPEN
EARLIER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...OR 275 DEGREES
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...BUT MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 10.4N 112.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 10.5N 114.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 10.7N 116.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 10.8N 118.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 11.3N 121.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 12.0N 126.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 13.0N 131.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 136.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[KWT]

Carlos can't be very far away at all looking at that, tightening up very nicely indeed.

[margiek]

"Eye-feature"? j/k

Looking good.

No the center is north of that loc.

To answer the question about NRLMRY TC, the site had a HW failure and should be fixed today.

[HURAKAN]

No the center is north of that loc.

I know. I just said that bc the opening in the clouds made it look like an eye but we know it isn't. That's why I said j/k.

[CrazyC83]

I have a feeling this could eventually become a major hurricane by Sunday or Monday.

[CrazyC83]

The 1959 category 5 was one of the first ones I thought of but I wasn't sure if there had ever been one that was where most Epac TC's start (under central Mexico where the water temperatures are the highest).

That makes sense. It is almost unheard-of for an EPAC storm to reach Category 5 without El Nino though.

I feel the Atlantic may stay mostly tranquil from here on in (keyword mostly - it only takes one for things to be brutal), and the Pacific may get insane.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful system.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2009 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 10:24:48 N Lon : 112:52:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.6 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -58.8C Cloud Region Temp : -44.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS, which isn't overly impressed with 04E to begin with, opens it to a wave SE of Hawaii in a week



If it really is just a wave, than assuming 500 mb flow is steering it wouldn't really be correct, but if it is a deeper system, 500 mb would suggest recurvature near the Hawai'an islands.



Still too early to say, but if I were in Hawaii (I'm not, but I enjoyed several weeks at various times in the 1980s at Pearl Harbor and surroundings), I'd adopt a level of cautious observance, and maybe try to beat the rush to Home Depot or Lowes.


I don't think this is a forecast, just a scenario, but, of course, people living in or planning vacations in Hawai'i should follow the NHC until this crosses 140ºW, then follow the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's advice when it does reach the C-Pac. This is an amateur opinion and not an official forecast.

[cycloneye]

It looks like Carlos is on its way.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2009 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 10:26:53 N Lon : 113:05:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -49.5C Cloud Region Temp : -39.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt04E.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was under the impression the computer generated Dvorak guesstimate works best when there a system is a hurricane, and it can calculate a temperature differential between the eye temperature and the cold tops around it.


But I could be wrong.

[cycloneye]

If HWRF is correct,Hawaii,watch out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian initializes fairly weak.



I can't find a good 144 hour Canadian 500 mb height field, but looking at FSU 500 mb vorticity fields, the back edge oif the anticyclone per the CMC could be dangerously close to Hawai'i.

[Derek Ortt]

If HWRF is correct,Hawaii,watch out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Huh? If HWRF is correct, this will be a weakening storm well before it comes near Hawaii

[cycloneye]

No change in the low rider track westbound in the 18:00 UTC model suite.Starts to weaken as it nears 140W.

WHXX01 KMIA 101847
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI JUL 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (EP042009) 20090710 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090710 1800 090711 0600 090711 1800 090712 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 113.4W 10.7N 115.8W 11.1N 118.2W 11.4N 120.5W
BAMD 10.2N 113.4W 10.1N 115.7W 10.0N 117.9W 10.3N 120.3W
BAMM 10.2N 113.4W 10.2N 115.6W 10.0N 117.8W 10.2N 120.0W
LBAR 10.2N 113.4W 10.3N 115.8W 10.4N 118.7W 10.8N 121.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090712 1800 090713 1800 090714 1800 090715 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 123.1W 12.0N 128.6W 12.5N 134.3W 13.2N 139.9W
BAMD 10.8N 122.7W 11.9N 127.6W 12.5N 132.0W 12.7N 135.9W
BAMM 10.6N 122.4W 11.6N 127.1W 12.5N 131.5W 13.0N 135.9W
LBAR 11.2N 124.9W 12.3N 131.1W 11.9N 135.8W 11.7N 139.4W
SHIP 63KTS 71KTS 67KTS 59KTS
DSHP 63KTS 71KTS 67KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 113.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 111.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 109.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Ed Mahmoud]

SSTs shouldn't be a problem...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Shear, now that could be an issue...

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlos


WTPZ34 KNHC 102034
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...DEPRESSION REACHES STORM STRENGTH...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND CARLOS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.3N 113.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



559
WTPZ24 KNHC 102033
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 113.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 113.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

511
WTPZ44 KNHC 102035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE CYCLONE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...AND ENOUGH BANDING GENERALLY
TO GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...AGAIN FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BLANCA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF CARLOS...BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...CARLOS IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE AND REMAIN ON A TRACK JUST NORTH
OF WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES
PRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN DEFERENCE TO THE
ECMWF...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS.

CARLOS IS WELL ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SMALL...OVER VERY WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A DECENT
CANDIDATE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T OCCUR
OFTEN IN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORMS. THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE ESTIMATES
A 35% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF
THE TIGHTLY PACKED DSHP/LGEM/HWFI/GHMI ENSEMBLE. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS...WHICH MIGHT ACT TO SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 10.3N 113.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN