ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[JPmia]

it's fun watching models show the back and forth as they always do this far out. finally stuff to watch out there!

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[alan1961]

TD2 is hanging on pulling some moisture in on its southern side while being dried out on its northern side, can see this struggling for awhile yet but ill make it eventually to a weak TS, one of those teasers i think until the next wave thats splashed into the atlantic puts on more of a show, if it developes of course.

[poof121]

Floater 1 has been moved over TD Two.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Steve H.]

I wish it would get better organized. We know from experience that weak systems get more influence from the easterlies when they remain weak. The longer it stays weak without folding, the better the chances of trouble down the road for the islands and the land masses to the west. With the MJO expected to become more pronounced in the basin during August, the more likely we'll see action pick up. Could be a bad month. Let's hope not.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z GFS loses it but big daddy behind it is roaring along!

[Sanibel]

Between the dry air ahead of TD2 and the energy in the long arm of ITCZ convection being pulled into it, so far 2009 has told us to bet on the dry air.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TD #02L is a role player. It is the pulling guard, or maybe the fullback. that will block the line backer called African dust and dry air, so the next wave over Africa has an open field to go for the 80 yard run towards the United States or maybe the Islands.


TD #02L is Darryl Johnston, opening a hole for future TD #03L, Emmit Smith.


Per JB at AccuWeather. He didn't mention any Cowboys, but I added that for elaboration.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS takes Two across FL, across the northern Gulf then southwest into eastern Mexico as a massive hurricane hits Florida then the Carolinas. Ok...

[drezee]

12Z GFS takes Two across FL, across the northern Gulf then southwest into eastern Mexico as a massive hurricane hits Florida then the Carolinas. Ok...

sounds like ratings gold for the Weather Channel...

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL trends more west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF

Same track as before.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

well not surprised at all... when i went to bed this morning (5 Am) some microwave images came in tha showed a well organized surface circulation and convection over it... i figured the moment visible sat images came in they would upgrade and they did... sweet at least i will get some surf out of this regardless.

I know there is another thread on this .. but the system in the central Atlantic is quickly becoming better organized.. seems some one finally found the paddles and shocked the season.. lol

[Gustywind]

12z GFDL trends more west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Tkanks to the weakness of the ridge at the end of the period for the islands...

[drezee]

12z GFDL trends more west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

This run also forms a TS near the FL keys....

[Brent]

12Z GFS takes Two across FL, across the northern Gulf then southwest into eastern Mexico as a massive hurricane hits Florida then the Carolinas. Ok...

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET trends more west

Compared with the 00z run,this 12z has it on a more west trend as the other models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

12Z GFS takes Two across FL, across the northern Gulf then southwest into eastern Mexico as a massive hurricane hits Florida then the Carolinas. Ok...

sounds like ratings gold for the Weather Channel...

and the exact track is not important.. its the development of the blocking ridge it has in place this run vs. the others that important. the ridge right now is not that weak and a more west track is possible the weak trough sitting near brumuda will be gone soon and a building ridge will likely keep TD 2 more westerly...

[tgenius]

Looks much better today than yesterday... Ana.. are you in there?

[KWT]

Yep it sure does look ok right now, I'd guess the NHC must be tempted to raise it to 30kts soon but its not quite upto TS just yet. Still if it can keep this slow and steady strengthening up then Ana can't be all that far away.