EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[CrazyC83]

EP, 13, 2009090100, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1093W, 135, 931, HU

[Blown Away]

What a awesome looking storm. Let's hope Jimena is peaking and will start winding down a little before landfall.

[PTPatrick]

methinks Cabo has serious trouble if this passes north/east of 20N/110W. The current track was projected to go south east of that point by a good bit, but based on latest satellite it is trended N of forecast points to begin with. Should be watched no doubt. Cabo is on the eastern edge of NHC's cone right now and the storm is so far riding said edge. The good news, if there is any...is that despite its tourist reputation, Cabo is a relatively small city...about 56,000 people according to wikipedia, and this is the off season there shouldnt be many tourists. Also the baja is sparsely populated outside of Cabo and La Paz. Also, surge should be a non issue there as much of Cabo is fairly high. The terrain rises very quickly off the beach. My question is, and I dont know if anybody can answer this, BUT...

we now the cancun/cozumel hotels and resorts have crazy building codes and are built to withstand such storms...my guess is that Cabo does not, given that most storms weaken a bit before getting there. Does anybody know?

[KBBOCA]

Wow! Jaw-dropping indeed!

And yet with a Cat4-Cat 5 hurricane about to hit a major resort area this thread is only at 18 pages?!? Although understandable, I always have to laugh when the slightest blob in the Atlantic generates dozens of pages of discussion and the monster storms in the Pacific go unnoticed by most...

Count how many posts in this thread are made by people living in Baja California and count how many posts are made in 94L's thread by people living in the eastern Caribbean and you will see why one has more posts than the other.

Oh I certainly understand why there's a difference and of course it's normal to focus on what may be a threat to ourselves and our loved ones. I've been a member here since very close to its founding... one of the ones who got disgusted with the Go PBI forums.... I focus on the Atlantic myself, and it usually takes a Cat4 or higher to get me reading a Pacific thread.

But I do find it so amusing that when people whine about a boring Atlantic season with not much to track... all the "season cancel" posts, etc. .... they don't actually track the storms that ARE exciting in the Pacific! Just saying....

It's clear that it's not the pure interest in weather or tracking storms that drives the participation here for most. The element of danger and personal involvement - i.e. this storm could come near ME - really does make a difference. And I am as guilty as anyone!! Probably 99% of my comments over the years have been for Atlantic systems.

P.S. Not wanting to take this thread off-topic... so I won't chime in on this further. The storm itself is what matters.

[fasterdisaster]

It doesn't matter much if they give Jimena Category 5 tonight since I'm 99% sure that in the post-season analysis they will give her Category 5 for yesterday, and possibly today as well.

[srainhoutx]

Beauty of the cyclone folks.

[HURAKAN]

Really bad time to be in Baja California Sur

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive hurricane. I think it is already a Category 5. The clouds from Jimena can be seen here.

[Chacor]

It really doesn't matter whether it is (or was) a cat5 or not, at 155 mph the destruction going to be caused is massive. It's only important for those who want it to be important, and let's be frank what's impiortant now is this storm doesn't do as much as we hope it will.

The OECD has moved its conference, scheduled for Tuesday in Los Cabos, to Mexico City.

[bombarderoazul]

Beautiful cyclone! I would have preferred to have seen Jimena a fish storm, like most Epac systems, but unfortunately baja california is like Florida in the atlantic, it is more prone to hurricanes.

[PTPatrick]

Latest IR imagry looks like the eye has contracted a bit and filled in, while some very cold cloud tops have formed in the CDO. Lots of dark grey stuff showing up now. Not sure if its trying an eyewall replacement or what, but just an observation.

[CrazyC83]

Could this shoot up the Gulf of California and impact the US Southwest heavily?

[HURAKAN]

070
WTPZ33 KNHC 010247
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING NORTHWEST...NEW
WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND ON THE EAST
COAST FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM..WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA...HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 109.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

023
WTPZ43 KNHC 010249
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS REMAINED
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
IN A LARGE CDO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND
6.0 FROM SAB AND THE ADT HAS BEEN SHOWING T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA COULD HAVE REACHED
CATEGORY 5 STATUS EARLIER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
STEADY FOR 12 HOURS...AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED
AS JIMENA WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSUMES
THAT JIMENA WILL STILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JIMENA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING JIMENA TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS NOW NECESSARY TO EXTEND HURRICANE WATCHES FARTHER NORTH ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT OR ON
TUESDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT
STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL
HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE DANGEROUS
IMPACTS WILL EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER REGARDLESS OF THE
LANDFALL LOCATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.4N 109.6W 135 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 20.7N 110.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 111.9W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.1N 112.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.2N 112.8W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Hurricanehink]

Interesting to see that NHC said it could've been a Cat. 5 earlier today.

[CrazyC83]

I would think that if it was a Cat 5 today, it would have been around 0000Z. It might be a Cat 5 now but there isn't any real data to work from.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful structure

[cycloneye]

Post season upgrade to cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

Post season upgrade to cat 5.

It's pretty much certain, perhaps on 2 occasions. I believe it was Cat 5 for a while yesterday as well. I'm sure some at the NHC wanted to bump this up to 140 kt for the advisory, but it is tough to break that psychological barrier.

[Derek Ortt]

I think it has weakened some this evening and I went with 130KT in the latest nwhhc update. The eye is not quite as defined and the CDO is not quite as symmetric