WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[drdavisjr]

So basically, this is it? It won't gain any more latitude? If that's the case, the track might be lower than what the forecasts are saying..........

I'm afraid so, but this is only my untrained, very novice opinion.

[HURAKAN]

The eye is developing already

[drdavisjr]

Unless I am mistaken, it isn't a question of IF we will get hit by this storm. It's now a question of HOW BAD we will be hit.

[cycloneye]

JMA 0945z Warning

TS 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 27 October 2009
<Analyses at 27/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E143°00'(143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E137°00'(137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

[oaba09]

Unless I am mistaken, it isn't a question of IF we will get hit by this storm. It's now a question of HOW BAD we will be hit.

How bad and where we will get hit.......

[drdavisjr]

The eye is developing already

Why does it look like it's above 15 degrees already?

[oaba09]

Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)

So it is moving west.............Interesting.....

[KWT]

Does look like its a little above 15N at the moment it has to be said. Organising at a decent rate now it seems, eye quite evident.

[HURAKAN]

Does look like its a little above 15N at the moment it has to be said. Organising at a decent rate now it seems, eye quite evident.

Welcome back. Long time no see!

ZCZC 332
WTPQ51 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0921 MIRINAE (0921) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 14.9N 143.7E POOR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 16.2N 137.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 290600UTC 16.3N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 300600UTC 16.6N 126.6E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 310600UTC 16.3N 125.6E 425NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
120HF 010600UTC 16.5N 122.7E 500NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT =
NNNN

[oaba09]

Does look like its a little above 15N at the moment it has to be said. Organising at a decent rate now it seems, eye quite evident.

It is above 15N

TPPN10 PGTW 270905

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 15.5N

D. 143.2E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0750Z 15.4N 143.3E SSMI
27/0810Z 15.5N 143.2E SSMS


SMITH

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2009 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:48 N Lon : 142:46:29 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[drdavisjr]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2009 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:48 N Lon : 142:46:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[dexterlabio]

Does look like its a little above 15N at the moment it has to be said. Organising at a decent rate now it seems, eye quite evident.

It is above 15N

TPPN10 PGTW 270905

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 15.5N

D. 143.2E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0750Z 15.4N 143.3E SSMI
27/0810Z 15.5N 143.2E SSMS


SMITH

so it is already above the forecast track? that seems to be tracking NW. i am puzzled with jtwc's satfix bulletins. their past satfix said that 23W is already located 15 degrees but in their latest forecast for 23W says that it is still somewhere below 15 degrees or 14.8 to be exact.

[oaba09]

Does look like its a little above 15N at the moment it has to be said. Organising at a decent rate now it seems, eye quite evident.

It is above 15N

TPPN10 PGTW 270905

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 15.5N

D. 143.2E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0750Z 15.4N 143.3E SSMI
27/0810Z 15.5N 143.2E SSMS


SMITH

so it is already above the forecast track? that seems to be tracking NW. i am puzzled with jtwc's satfix bulletins. their past satfix said that 23W is already located 15 degrees but in their latest forecast for 23W says that it is still somewhere below 15 degrees or 14.8 to be exact.

I'm also actually confused...............Can any experts clarify this??? Some are saying that it's at 14.8 while some are saying that it's above 15N.....

[oaba09]

[cycloneye]

The only thing I can say about the positions that are you discussing about is that it is secondary as the big picture sadly continues to be that a strong ridge will cause Mirinae to track west towards the Philliphines.

[oaba09]

The only thing I can say about the positions that are you discussing about is that it is secondary as the big picture sadly continues to be that a strong ridge will cause Mirinae to track west towards the Philliphines.

I guess it's unavoidable huh??? I think the only question now is where we'll get hit...........

[dexterlabio]

The only thing I can say about the positions that are you discussing about is that it is secondary as the big picture sadly continues to be that a strong ridge will cause Mirinae to track west towards the Philliphines.

so metro manila and nearby provinces will get hit by mirinae? i saw one weather map in one site and they clearly illustrated the positions of the HPA above 23W. The HPA over mainland China is extending somewhere near Luzon straight and i think most of the forecast says that mirinae will continue to track west with a little wsw motion towards central and southern Luzon. the trough, as i see it, cannot influence its movements as of now. we must be ready for the worse scenario O_O

[drdavisjr]

The only thing I can say about the positions that are you discussing about is that it is secondary as the big picture sadly continues to be that a strong ridge will cause Mirinae to track west towards the Philliphines.

I think we're all kinda scared to look at the big picture, still. But you are exactly right.

[HURAKAN]

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