ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

I was just about to ask if I seen that right. Thanks derek.

[drezee]

recon passes out as buoys show 60 knot 10-min sustained winds at elevation

[AJC3]

seems like IDA has hit Haiti somehow crzy but since this hurricane has form we've ben getting a lot of rain and right now there's a lot of winds today idk but i think IDA is part of this can u guys tell me if those winds are from IDa and the heavy rain also plzzzzzzzzzz ???

Ida is having no direct impact on the weather in Haiti. Any rain in Haiti is due to an upper trough

LOL, Haiti is kinda far away from the northern gulf coast! LOL (Seriously, this post cannot be "for real")

Pretty strong trough northeast of the Greater Antilles has cut off from the westerlies. Most of the bad weather associated with this feature is north of the Leeward Islands, however there is a narrow area of convection extending from east to west across the V.I., P.R. and Hispanola.

[drezee]

I will be surprised if there are any sustained 70 mph winds onshore, gusts maybe.

70mph wind gust already reported near grande isle

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PSTL1

[CrazyC83]

WunderMap: winds sustained around 50 kt at the mouth of the Mississippi...

[AJC3]

What is that tail down, a cold front?

Looks like a result of the dry slot wrapping around the east side of Ida. Part of the ongoing gradual ET transition thats taking place. Ida's done a pretty decent job retaining enough tropical characteristics, however the clock is ticking. Landfall, followed by complete ET transition, is not too far away.

[lostsole]

Okay, I got in trouble and did not mean to violate rules before, but I was just on Pcola pier two minutes ago with a handheld anenometer (SP?) and winds did not get over 30mph, I would highly doubt it gets anywhere over 50mph tonight. I will be on the top of my 4th floor of the condo, will report wind speeds as I have a clear shot of the gulf just 50 feet away.

[cycloneye]

there is a narrow area of convection extending from east to west across the V.I.,P.R. and Hispanola.

Between 1-3 inches fell today,more rain expected tonight thru thursday.See more at Caribbean thread at Weather Attic forum.

Ok back to Ida.Plane stopped reporting,no idea what happened.

[lonelymike]

Just need to keep an eye on it. But if it were to develop and head north I cannot imagine it gaining much intensity with the shear and likely a run in with the westerlies and lowering SST's, especially if it made it to the GOM. A heavy rain producer would prolly be the biggest threat for anyone!

Dean4storms wins the pool for original forecast in this forum.

[rolltide]

Okay, I got in trouble and did not mean to violate rules before, but I was just on Pcola pier two minutes ago with a handheld anenometer (SP?) and winds did not get over 30mph, I would highly doubt it gets anywhere over 50mph tonight. I will be on the top of my 4th floor of the condo, will report wind speeds as I have a clear shot of the gulf just 50 feet away.

Go stand out there on the pier about 6-8 hours from now and I think you will have a different opinion. Better hang on tight though.

[ozonepete]

Wxman57, Aric, you wanna hazard a guess on the center? I seem to see a littl jog to the NNE on the radar and satellite but could be temporary (or my imagination).

[lostsole]

I wish that would let me out there, but it will close soon. But I will keep reports coming as I will walk to the shoreline occasionally. This is a weak storm, kinda reminds me of the nor'easters I have been through. After feeling Charlie, Ivan, Katrina and Ike firsthand, I am a little biased.

[Janie2006]

Perhaps this should be posted in the "Advisories" thread, but as we are pretty much in the "nowcasting" phase for Ida I thought this would be relevant here.

NWS Mobile AFD:

GIVEN THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...WE ARE THINKING THAT LANDFALL WILL
BE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED
SOMETIME VERY LATE THIS EVENING OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
UNLESS IDA MAKES A HARD RIGHT REAL FAST...IT LOOKS AS IF THE CENTER
WILL COME ASHORE NEAR OR WEST OF MOBILE BAY. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS AS IT WOULD ALLOW A SOUTHERLY WIND TO PRODUCE THE HIGHER
END OF THE EXPECTED SURGE VALUES FROM PENSACOLA WEST TO MOBILE BAY.
IF THE STORM COMES IN TO THE WEST OF THE BAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING
TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 4-6 FT IN THE BAY AREA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
BALDWIN COUNTY...WITH 4-5 FT POSSIBLE AROUND PENSACOLA AND CLOSER TO
3-4 FEET FURTHER EAST TOWARD DESTIN.

[cycloneye]

The plane is still flying.

000
URNT12 KNHC 092247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 09/21:17:50Z
B. 28 deg 26 min N
088 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. 39 kt
E. 120 deg 1 nm
F. 208 deg 61 kt
G. 129 deg 27 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 18 C / 1522 m
J. 22 C / 1529 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0711A IDA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 21:09:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 21:25:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 128 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR
VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND SW QUAD
;

[cycloneye]

Just in time for another pass.

URNT15 KNHC 092258
AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 40 20091109
225030 2814N 08903W 8431 01498 0005 +200 +100 298030 033 051 000 00
225100 2816N 08902W 8429 01497 0000 +202 +100 293030 032 056 000 03
225130 2817N 08901W 8424 01501 9995 +205 +101 292030 031 056 000 00
225200 2818N 08859W 8434 01487 9995 +197 +123 307029 030 054 000 00
225230 2819N 08858W 8426 01493 9987 +205 +120 301028 029 057 000 00
225300 2820N 08857W 8426 01486 9984 +204 +122 302026 027 057 000 00
225330 2821N 08855W 8435 01477 9982 +199 +132 310023 027 054 001 00
225400 2823N 08854W 8427 01482 9977 +202 +129 301025 026 054 000 03
225430 2824N 08853W 8439 01468 9968 +212 +124 296027 028 054 000 00
225500 2825N 08852W 8427 01474 9962 +213 +128 293027 029 053 000 03
225530 2826N 08850W 8432 01462 9955 +216 +128 288029 030 054 000 03
225600 2827N 08849W 8424 01469 9951 +215 +128 280027 030 053 000 00
225630 2829N 08847W 8422 01464 9945 +222 +125 286025 026 050 000 00
225700 2830N 08846W 8441 01442 9938 +228 +122 293024 026 049 002 00
225730 2831N 08845W 8419 01469 9940 +222 +126 313023 025 043 001 00
225800 2832N 08843W 8433 01446 9932 +227 +124 333022 024 038 000 00
225830 2832N 08843W 8433 01446 9929 +224 +126 331018 019 031 001 03
225900 2834N 08840W 8425 01447 9932 +209 +143 322019 021 025 001 00
225930 2835N 08839W 8429 01438 9923 +218 +142 296015 016 023 000 03
230000 2836N 08837W 8440 01425 9910 +239 +126 269014 018 017 000 00

[Ivanhater]

Seems she has started her NNE turn.Likely power outages for the Mobile/Pensacola area tonight

[cycloneye]

Broad center.

URNT15 KNHC 092308
AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 41 20091109
230030 2837N 08836W 8430 01433 9923 +208 +153 266011 013 014 001 00
230100 2838N 08835W 8440 01423 9918 +214 +149 254010 012 011 002 00
230130 2840N 08834W 8426 01433 9919 +203 +156 246008 009 011 001 00
230200 2841N 08833W 8434 01425 9917 +207 +153 234008 008 020 002 00
230230 2842N 08832W 8425 01435 9926 +192 +164 236005 006 028 001 00
230300 2844N 08830W 8430 01429 9917 +204 +157 232007 008 030 002 00
230330 2845N 08829W 8430 01430 9917 +207 +155 181011 012 039 002 00
230400 2846N 08828W 8428 01432 9918 +209 +148 167017 019 039 002 03
230430 2846N 08826W 8434 01428 9915 +220 +142 178016 018 999 999 03
230500 2845N 08827W 8414 01440 9911 +219 +136 197011 012 999 999 03
230530 2844N 08828W 8018 01867 9910 +202 +125 192008 011 999 999 03
230600 2843N 08830W 7680 02238 9904 +188 +104 237008 009 999 999 03
230630 2842N 08831W 7376 02592 9895 +183 +074 240013 014 999 999 03
230700 2841N 08833W 7117 02903 9909 +156 +061 252013 015 006 002 03
230730 2840N 08834W 6964 03093 9927 +136 +054 268015 018 004 001 00
230800 2839N 08836W 6960 03101 9935 +131 +048 275018 022 007 001 00
230830 2838N 08838W 6975 03084 9941 +133 +048 287025 030 007 001 00
230900 2837N 08840W 6952 03120 9952 +125 +050 284032 035 009 002 00
230930 2835N 08841W 6983 03080 9966 +117 +052 280028 033 021 001 00
231000 2834N 08843W 6958 03112 9963 +121 +030 273039 039 028 000 00

[caribepr]

seems like IDA has hit Haiti somehow crzy but since this hurricane has form we've ben getting a lot of rain and right now there's a lot of winds today idk but i think IDA is part of this can u guys tell me if those winds are from IDa and the heavy rain also plzzzzzzzzzz ???

Ida is having no direct impact on the weather in Haiti. Any rain in Haiti is due to an upper trough

LOL, Haiti is kinda far away from the northern gulf coast! LOL (Seriously, this post cannot be "for real")

It's for real...we've had unexpected rain bands here, 2 inches, almost 2 inches and almost 3 inches at a time over the past two days. Yes, it's part of a trough, but it's all of a piece. Look at the bigger picture, you might be surprised to find that weather goes beyond one little patch of the universe...this is from my post on stormcarib.com this morning. I bailed another dinghy full after posting this:

"The dinghy is full, again (yesterday's showers had it over ankle deep before I got to bailing). Good exercise! Now I watch the sat loops as the weather swoops from the Gulf over Cuba, over Jamaica, over Haiti and the DR right to our door before making another northeasterly swoop up up up into the central Atlantic. So huge, and us so small, it almost seems ridiculous to think this could change my day. Mine and...thousands more from miles upon miles away in so many directions."

Just to add....we islanders aren't saying much but we're watching and thinking of all of you on the coast, hoping all stay safe.

[wxman57]

I will be surprised if there are any sustained 70 mph winds onshore, gusts maybe.

70mph wind gust already reported near grand isle

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PSTL1

That location is at 25 meters above the water, a bit above standard measurement level (10 meters). But I suspect that land stations on the MS/AL coast will report in the 30-40 mph range sustained with a few gusts to 50-60 mph overnight. The area of higher winds is so small it'll probably miss all observation stations. But if it does hit an anemometer, then it might report 45-55 mph sustained.

[cycloneye]

Plane acending so mission is over.

URNT15 KNHC 092318
AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 42 20091109
231030 2833N 08845W 6965 03107 9964 +122 +025 281037 039 036 000 00
231100 2832N 08846W 6961 03112 9972 +114 +049 306039 041 038 000 00
231130 2831N 08848W 6972 03104 9978 +114 +050 292042 045 046 001 00
231200 2830N 08850W 6967 03109 9979 +119 +015 282046 048 049 000 00
231230 2829N 08852W 6969 03114 9981 +116 +010 284048 049 049 000 00
231300 2828N 08853W 6965 03118 9986 +115 +011 288044 045 050 000 03
231330 2826N 08855W 6967 03118 9987 +117 +009 289042 043 050 000 03
231400 2825N 08857W 6971 03112 9993 +113 +013 285043 043 050 000 00
231430 2824N 08859W 6967 03121 0001 +107 +018 287042 042 048 000 00
231500 2823N 08900W 6967 03124 0007 +103 +025 294041 042 049 000 00
231530 2822N 08902W 6968 03120 0013 +100 +027 297040 040 047 000 03
231600 2821N 08904W 6961 03132 0024 +092 +028 300034 036 047 000 03
231630 2821N 08906W 6898 03206 0021 +088 +027 299034 035 047 001 03
231700 2822N 08908W 6579 03608 0031 +065 +016 295036 037 047 000 00
231730 2822N 08910W 6327 03932 0015 +060 -015 286032 033 047 000 00
231800 2822N 08912W 6128 04194 0018 +042 -029 284030 031 048 000 03
231830 2823N 08914W 5929 04433 9990 +023 -036 282030 030 044 000 03
231900 2823N 08916W 5729 04714 9996 +001 -040 280028 030 046 000 00
231930 2824N 08918W 5551 04973 0013 -017 -044 278026 027 044 001 03
232000 2824N 08920W 5386 05219 0200 -032 -054 265023 024 044 000 00