ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[wxman57]

Wxman57, Aric, you wanna hazard a guess on the center? I seem to see a littl jog to the NNE on the radar and satellite but could be temporary (or my imagination).

Surface obs suggest 28.9N/88.4W. New VDM has 28.8N/88.5W. No guarantee that's in the middle of the center, though. Center is tough to locate on radar, as radar is looking WAY up above the center from this far out.

Winds in the region aren't a lot different from 24-36 hours ago. Strong pressure gradient with the high to the northeast. Note the cool, dry air wrapping into Ida's western side. Dew points in the low 60s.

Also note that there's not a lot of flow INTO the center from the SW-NW.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 092322
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 09/23:03:20Z
B. 28 deg 44 min N
088 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1357 m
D. 57 kt
E. 228 deg 34 nm
F. 311 deg 32 kt
G. 228 deg 57 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 22 C / 1526 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0711A IDA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 21:25:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 222 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
SONDE RELEASED OVER 10 KT SFC WINDS APPROX 8 NM SW FROM FL FIX
LARGE CELL W OF FIX EMBEDDED IN SW CONVECTIVE BAND

Just saw that one posted Cycloneye
;

[rolltide]

Seems she has started her NNE turn.Likely power outages for the Mobile/Pensacola area tonight

I agree Ivan. Looks like it's going to be very close to a P-cola landfall. Also looks like a strong band coming our way soon.

[ozonepete]

Wxman57, Aric, you wanna hazard a guess on the center? I seem to see a littl jog to the NNE on the radar and satellite but could be temporary (or my imagination).

Surface obs suggest 28.9N/88.4W. New VDM has 28.8N/88.5W. No guarantee that's in the middle of the center, though. Center is tough to locate on radar, as radar is looking WAY up above the center from this far out.

Winds in the region aren't a lot different from 24-36 hours ago. Strong pressure gradient with the high to the northeast. Note the cool, dry air wrapping into Ida's western side. Dew points in the low 60s.

Also note that there's not a lot of flow INTO the center from the SW-NW.

Thanks alot wxman. That's about what I surmised. I would expect dewpoints of 70 or better in a thoroughly tropical system. There also now appears to be a decided jog to the NE. That was forecasted after landfall, but it may be starting a little sooner.

[deltadog03]

Ya dewpoints might be low, but it is november...remember that.

[Dave]

[ozonepete]

Ya dewpoints might be low, but it is november...remember that.

I do. I'm very conscious of them because I love tropical weather and don't live in it. But low 60 dewpoints indicate a system is not PURELY tropical. In this case, it tells me, as I said before, that there is some ET already underway, BUT to the best I can see, it is still way more tropical than not. That front that has developed on the northeastern and eastern side is still more of a dry line than a cold front, but the dry slot it has produced is an indicator that ET has begun. I don't think it will be really extratropical until tomorrow afternoon. For now it is TS Ida to me for sure.

[artist]

looks like there is lots of rain out there for the west coast of Florida as well. We sat right in a squall line today for quite awhile here where I am in Palm Beach county today. Most was very light rain, but a good couple of squalls definitely came in with the winds.

[ozonepete]

Swinging more eastward now.

[deltadog03]

What a crazy storm for sure. The rains are going to be pretty damaging especially in AL and GA. We can't really use 4" of rain right now. I expect flooding to steal the show with this one.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Does not really look tropical any more , though that does not really matter should still gust pretty high on the gulf coast.

[Jessie]

I'm trying to get a feel of what 60 or 70 mile sustained winds feel like. Does anyone remember what the wind speeds were for Ivan and Katrina in Mobile. We were on the outskirts of both storms --- not direct hits -- I don't remember Katrina's winds to be that strong in West Mobile. I went to Montgomery for Ivan - the winds were very strong there.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092354
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES...60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
AFTER LANDFALL...IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AN OBSERVING SITE NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET MEASURED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 74 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...28.9N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...28.9N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB

[ozonepete]

What a crazy storm for sure. The rains are going to be pretty damaging especially in AL and GA. We can't really use 4" of rain right now. I expect flooding to steal the show with this one.

Yeah, it could be pretty bad.

[Ivanhater]

I'd imagine a landfall around Pensacola

[Derek Ortt]

afraid I have some bad news

there are no more nwhhc satellite images for the time being. Having a problem with the computer I use to generate them. Hopefully they will be back up and running tomorrow

[deltadog03]

Ivan here it comes!!!! lol I did/ am going to get the landfall point right. Gonna be a bit high on the windspeed obviously.

[Sanibel]

Mobile Bay and east depending on the degree of hook.

[wxman57]

Ivan here it comes!!!! lol I did/ am going to get the landfall point right. Gonna be a bit high on the windspeed obviously.

Looks like the center will enter Mobile Bay by midnight. A ways from Pensacola. I don't see any movement east of due north, yet.