ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

I'm trying to get a feel of what 60 or 70 mile sustained winds feel like. Does anyone remember what the wind speeds were for Ivan and Katrina in Mobile. We were on the outskirts of both storms --- not direct hits -- I don't remember Katrina's winds to be that strong in West Mobile. I went to Montgomery for Ivan - the winds were very strong there.

I merged the thread that you made with this main thread for discussions about Ida as only threads for invests and tropical cyclones are allowed in this forum.

[Alacane2]

Ivan here it comes!!!! lol I did/ am going to get the landfall point right. Gonna be a bit high on the windspeed obviously.

Looks like the center will enter Mobile Bay by midnight. A ways from Pensacola. I don't see any movement east of due north, yet.

Maybe that is why the NHC is now referencing Mobile instead of Pensacola.?

[wxman57]

Here's a challenge. Predict the top sustained wind/gusts at the two nearest major cities to Ida's landfall, Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL (MOB & PNS).

Here are my thoughts:
MOB - 38 gusting 52 mph
PNS - 34 gusting 47 mph

I don't think either will record sustained 39+ mph, not that there won't be some such winds on the coast.

[Sanibel]

Dauphin Island - 55 - 75+

[deltadog03]

Wxman I see it moving around 030 or 040 on radar. It appears that way, however I know the radar beam is shooting way up there as well. Ya might be a bit west of PNS

[Jag95]

I'm trying to get a feel of what 60 or 70 mile sustained winds feel like. Does anyone remember what the wind speeds were for Ivan and Katrina in Mobile. We were on the outskirts of both storms --- not direct hits -- I don't remember Katrina's winds to be that strong in West Mobile. I went to Montgomery for Ivan - the winds were very strong there.

I thought Kat was worse in West Mobile than Ivan. Ivan was pretty bad downtown, but damage decreased rapidly as you went westward. I live in west Mobile, and had virually no damage in Ivan (except a power outage of 5 days), but had a tree on my workshop and enough shingles to qualify for a new roof job in Kat. The wind gusts in Kat ranged from around 85 at Dauphin Island to around 70 at the airport (25 to 30 miles north of the coast). Ivan had gusts of 105 at the battleship, and probably around 90 mph downtown. I don't expect Ida to be anything like either of the above, and plan on getting some sleep tonight.

[drezee]

Here's a challenge. Predict the top sustained wind/gusts at the two nearest major cities to Ida's landfall, Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL (MOB & PNS).

Mobile Downtown Airport 41 g 54
Mobile Regional Airport 36 g 44
PNS 36 g 43

[attallaman]

Off and on heavy rain here right now but not much wind, just like your typical nighttime thunderstorm without the thunder and lightning. Nothing like TS Bill which came near here a few years back although I was on the dirty side of TS Bill when it made landfall in Louisiana a few years ago. WDSU TV6 out of NOLA which has been on the air covering Ida all day today said the worst of the weather for SE LA should be over around Midnight and for coastal MS by around 2:00 a.m. tomorrow.

[lostsole]

WXMAN,
I have already recorded 42 mph winds sustained earlier today on Pcola pier, and 38 got a bit ago on my roof.

[tallywx]

Ya dewpoints might be low, but it is november...remember that.

Looked back at surface obs from November 21, 1985, when Hurricane Kate was making landfall, and dewpoints across the landfall zone (Panama City to Tallahassee) were in the 72-75F range the entire day before landfall. Wind direction also had a SE component to it despite Kate's trajectory coming in from the southwest. Even after Kate's passage, dewpoints only dropped to around 65 the next day...and that was after extratropical transition.

So all in all, a very different nascent atmosphere supported that historic cyclone compared to this mess.

[deltadog03]

Thanks for that tallywx. I didn't know that.

[attallaman]

Winds are out of the NE at 22, gusting to 32, barometric pressure is 29.95", relative humidity is 88%. Parts of Hancock county to my west are starting to flood, some are beginning to evacuate from low lying areas.

[tallywx]

Ivan here it comes!!!! lol I did/ am going to get the landfall point right. Gonna be a bit high on the windspeed obviously.

Looks like the center will enter Mobile Bay by midnight. A ways from Pensacola. I don't see any movement east of due north, yet.

Using the famous "look at surface pressures along the coast to find the path of least resistance" method, Pensacola Naval Air Station wins right now at 29.91", with PNS not too far behind at 29.93. Mobile is all the way up at 29.97. Seems to be this is clearing a "path" for the surface circ to move more towards the AL/FL border than Mobile.

[gatorcane]

Here's a challenge. Predict the top sustained wind/gusts at the two nearest major cities to Ida's landfall, Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL (MOB & PNS).

Mobile Downtown Airport 41 g 54
Mobile Regional Airport 36 g 44
PNS 36 g 43

Here are some of the peak winds and wind gusts in the FL Keys from Ida, which really won't be a whole lot lower than what places like Pensacola and Mobile may see from Ida:

Key West: NE 26 G 32
Marathon: E 22 G 33

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMTH.html
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KEYW.html

BTW, looks like the low NE of the Leewards may push WNW and merge into some superstorm off the Carolinas in a few days. NHC has a code yellow on the area north of the Leewards. I think development is not likely at this time.

[cycloneye]

Ida is going to be out of the picture soon and the 2009 season saw its last hurrah in a big way.But not so fast as maybe this season may have a last gasp.No way many say but only go to talking tropics forum and find out.

[Blown Away]

Ida is going to be out of the picture soon and the 2009 season saw its last hurrah in a big way.But not so fast as maybe this season may have a last gasp.No way many say but only go to talking tropics forum and find out.

Oh i just love surprises!!!

[fsusurfer]

Here in destin, and so far ida is a dud

[tallywx]

Here in destin, and so far ida is a dud

Is the surf at least respectable? Lack of wind could actually help since it won't be knocking the top off of the peaks.

[gatorcane]

She is getting sheared to death now, by morning, the clouds will have cleared across the panhandle and it will be back to fall as NW winds infiltrate.

[CrazyC83]

Don't let the deteriorating appearance fool you though. The winds could easily pick back up to hurricane status through baroclinic forcing.