ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[sandyb]

You mean 16N 62W. Looks like a mid level low.

Thats what I thought. A decoupled MLC getting kicked to the north. Unless it is something else lol.

Mid-level rotation. Many surface obs below it, and nothing indicated at the surface. We do have to watch for such a mid-level circulation to extend to the surface IF (big IF) the wind shear (and dry air) subsides. JB sees it and insists this will be a big bad hurricane in the Bahamas and give him his long-predicted east coast hit. Probably won't happen.

i went back and read jb and watch the big dog he says nothing like this there where did you read that i like to hear what he has to say but can not find where he thinks it will be a hurricane in the bahamas

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 031927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 03/19:00:40Z
B. 16 deg 38 min N
064 deg 57 min W
C. NA
D. 21 kt
E. 330 deg 45 nm
F. 073 deg 18 kt
G. 332 deg 35 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 24 C / 313 m
J. 25 C / 219 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF304 0506A ERIKA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 21 KT NE QUAD 17:28:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;


URNT15 KNHC 031946
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 21 20090903
193700 1548N 06310W 9762 00293 0096 +239 +119 177020 021 012 000 00
193730 1548N 06308W 9763 00293 0096 +236 +120 175019 019 017 000 00
193800 1548N 06306W 9761 00295 0097 +235 +121 176018 019 020 000 00
193830 1548N 06304W 9762 00296 0098 +229 +122 159016 016 022 000 03
193900 1548N 06303W 9762 00293 0097 +226 +122 149018 019 021 000 00
193930 1548N 06301W 9766 00290 0097 +229 +122 146019 021 021 002 03
194000 1549N 06300W 9760 00293 0094 +234 +121 142022 023 020 001 03
194030 1551N 06300W 9765 00290 0097 +229 +121 140024 025 024 000 00
194100 1553N 06300W 9760 00296 0098 +225 +121 144024 024 026 000 00
194130 1555N 06300W 9765 00291 0098 +227 +120 148023 023 025 000 00
194200 1557N 06300W 9760 00297 0099 +232 +119 154025 025 024 000 00
194230 1559N 06300W 9763 00295 0099 +231 +118 156026 026 026 000 03
194300 1601N 06300W 9763 00295 0098 +234 +117 160025 026 025 000 03
194330 1603N 06300W 9764 00292 0096 +237 +117 164027 028 999 999 03
194400 1605N 06300W 9764 00290 0093 +240 +118 167030 032 999 999 03
194430 1608N 06300W 9762 00290 0090 +243 +119 172033 034 999 999 03
194500 1610N 06300W 9763 00286 0087 +249 +120 181032 032 999 999 03
194530 1612N 06300W 9763 00289 0090 +244 +122 177031 032 999 999 03
194600 1614N 06300W 9764 00290 0093 +245 +124 178028 028 999 999 03
194630 1616N 06300W 9763 00291 0093 +243 +125 179027 027 999 999 03

[Blown Away]

You mean 16N 62W. Looks like a mid level low.

Thats what I thought. A decoupled MLC getting kicked to the north. Unless it is something else lol.

Mid-level rotation. Many surface obs below it, and nothing indicated at the surface. We do have to watch for such a mid-level circulation to extend to the surface IF (big IF) the wind shear (and dry air) subsides. JB sees it and insists this will be a big bad hurricane in the Bahamas and give him his long-predicted east coast hit. Probably won't happen.

Is it possible that is what the models may see, because that LLC is flying and no model was even close to predicting that accelerated forward speed, not that I'm giving the models any credit. Good cyclonic rotation near the convection. Clearly the low levels are flying west and the mid levels are swirling around over the islands.

[OuterBanker]

JB does state that he does see the possibility of the mid level circ around Guadelupe dropping to the surface. I guess that could happen and it would explain the gfdl and hrwf tracks. Maybe they saw thos possibilites too. I was puzzeled by both this am after they both had her weak in yesterdays 18z run.

[wxman57]

i just read jb and i did not read that where did you get that info from jb?

He's been saying that all week. Today's comments included words like "big factor for the East Coast", "I think the center is reforming and means business near Guadeloupe", etc. Just confirming his forecast of a big hurricane in the Bahamas by late this holiday weekend.

[sandyb]

[quote="OuterBanker"]JB does state that he does see the possibility of the mid level circ around Guadelupe dropping to the surface. I guess that could happen and it would explain the gfdl and hrwf tracks. Maybe they saw thos possibilites too. I was puzzeled by both this am after they both had her weak in yesterdays 18z run.[/quote

he does not say on the latest post that he thinks this will be anything as of yet not big hurricane or anything like that when talking he said IF this or that happens but I can not find where he says anything like like what has been posted, just want to know where they read or heard that would like to go read it for myself.
thanks

[HenkL]

[Air Force Met]

JB does state that he does see the possibility of the mid level circ around Guadelupe dropping to the surface. I guess that could happen and it would explain the gfdl and hrwf tracks. Maybe they saw thos possibilites too. I was puzzeled by both this am after they both had her weak in yesterdays 18z run.

JB's wrong on this one. Plane is out in that area right now and has southerly winds at 30 kts. No center is going to work its way down to the sfc in that strong sfc flow.

If it was light and variable out there...then I would say its possible. But not with strong southerly flow.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031956
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 22 20090903
194700 1618N 06300W 9762 00291 0092 +245 +125 181027 028 999 999 03
194730 1620N 06300W 9763 00290 0091 +242 +125 184028 028 999 999 03
194800 1622N 06300W 9763 00289 0091 +240 +125 185029 029 999 999 03
194830 1624N 06300W 9762 00290 0092 +238 +124 183029 029 999 999 03
194900 1626N 06300W 9765 00290 0094 +233 +123 181027 029 999 999 03
194930 1628N 06300W 9761 00293 0095 +234 +122 177025 025 999 999 03
195000 1630N 06300W 9763 00292 0097 +233 +120 174025 025 999 999 03
195030 1632N 06300W 9764 00292 0097 +235 +119 174024 024 999 999 03
195100 1634N 06300W 9761 00296 0098 +233 +118 171024 025 999 999 03
195130 1636N 06300W 9764 00293 0098 +232 +117 167025 025 999 999 03
195200 1638N 06300W 9764 00292 0098 +233 +117 166025 026 999 999 03
195230 1640N 06300W 9764 00291 0097 +235 +117 161025 026 999 999 03
195300 1642N 06300W 9763 00292 0096 +235 +117 163025 026 999 999 03
195330 1644N 06300W 9760 00295 0097 +235 +117 159025 026 999 999 03
195400 1646N 06300W 9765 00292 0097 +235 +118 160024 024 999 999 03
195430 1648N 06300W 9763 00293 0096 +235 +118 163023 023 027 000 03
195500 1650N 06300W 9762 00293 0097 +234 +118 160023 024 026 000 00
195530 1652N 06300W 9764 00291 0096 +232 +119 155024 024 025 000 00
195600 1654N 06300W 9762 00293 0096 +233 +119 153024 024 025 000 00
195630 1656N 06300W 9764 00292 0096 +233 +119 152023 024 026 000 00

[OuterBanker]

Sandy, you have to be a pro member. It was in his 1pm post. WE have to be carefull and interpet what he says, direct quotes would be a copyright infringment.

[sandyb]

if you go listen to jb and read his post he is not saying its gonna be a big hurricane he is not saying anything negitive towards the hurricane centers forecaste so no he is may not be so wrong, i read him daily and i am not seeing what you all are.

[jlauderdal]

i just read jb and i did not read that where did you get that info from jb?

He's been saying that all week. Today's comments included words like "big factor for the East Coast", "I think the center is reforming and means business near Guadeloupe", etc. Just confirming his forecast of a big hurricane in the Bahamas by late this holiday weekend.

he was on that train yesterday and big factor to me sounds like he is still on it

[Frank2]

Here's the WV loop - it seems Fall is fast approaching in the tropics, since the easterlies are at a standstill at the moment, at least in the area of Erika...

Note the small ULL NW of Erika, and the deep trough in the GOMEX - not a very favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development, that's for sure:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Thankfully...

[sandyb]

Sandy, you have to be a pro member. It was in his 1pm post. WE have to be carefull and interpet what he says, direct quotes would be a copyright infringment.

i am a pro member and i just read him and watched video thats why im asking cause he is not saying this on the pro site i was wondering if it was somewhere else i wanted to go read it thats all i really like to read him thats why i have to pro site but just dont see what they are saying he is saying and wanted to know if it was somewhere else
thanks again

[tpr1967]

Its gonna be a cat 10. WELL not really.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 032006
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 23 20090903
195700 1658N 06300W 9763 00293 0097 +234 +119 149023 023 024 000 00
195730 1700N 06300W 9762 00293 0097 +235 +119 145022 023 024 000 00
195800 1702N 06300W 9762 00295 0098 +231 +119 140023 024 025 000 03
195830 1704N 06300W 9764 00295 0098 +233 +119 140024 025 022 000 00
195900 1706N 06300W 9762 00296 0098 +235 +118 144025 025 025 000 00
195930 1708N 06300W 9761 00296 0098 +235 +118 141024 025 024 000 00
200000 1710N 06300W 9761 00297 0099 +235 +118 140023 024 021 001 00
200030 1712N 06300W 9761 00297 0100 +235 +118 135022 024 022 001 00
200100 1714N 06300W 9764 00295 0099 +235 +117 140024 025 023 000 00
200130 1716N 06300W 9763 00295 0099 +235 +117 141024 024 021 000 00
200200 1718N 06300W 9764 00295 0099 +235 +118 140023 023 022 000 00
200230 1720N 06300W 9764 00295 0099 +238 +118 139024 025 024 000 00
200300 1722N 06301W 9763 00296 0099 +235 +119 138023 024 024 000 03
200330 1724N 06301W 9762 00296 0100 +235 +119 141022 023 023 000 00
200400 1726N 06301W 9763 00296 0100 +235 +120 140023 024 023 000 00
200430 1728N 06302W 9762 00297 0100 +235 +120 137024 024 022 000 00
200500 1730N 06302W 9762 00296 0100 +235 +120 138024 025 024 000 00
200530 1731N 06302W 9762 00297 0100 +236 +120 137023 025 020 000 03
200600 1733N 06302W 9772 00289 0101 +234 +120 129022 023 022 000 00
200630 1735N 06302W 9761 00298 0100 +233 +120 132023 024 024 000 00

[Frank2]

Cat 0 at this point - per the recon it seems Erika is now a TD - film at 5...

LOL

[tpr1967]

LOL. True.

[sandyb]

so the hurricane center is smarter than the models go figure! its doing what they said it would do

[Shewtinstar]

Here Lies Erika One Tuff Old Biddie