GOM: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

TAFB puts possible TC at their graphic.

[Cainer]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42364


Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 75.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 69.1 °F

40 MPH winds and a falling pressure of 1005.4 millibars at this station in the Gulf... It's at least a TD, and I don't know about you guys, but I'm interested in seeing the 2 a.m. TWD!

[senorpepr]

Definitely been watching 90L throughout the evening here. As wxman57 mention, what it's lacking is convection over a well defined LLC as much of the thunderstorms remain on the NE periphery of the broad circulation. Nonetheless, before I go to bed, I'll activatemy storm floater charts.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, I'm sorry it has to happen to anyone, but, I'm just glad that Memorial Weekend is looking like it won't be a rainy washout in New Orleans. Sorry Mobile--you can always get in the car and head West about 2 hours and come to New Orleans. At least you won't be holed up in the house all holiday weekend watching movies. Nothing worse than a tropical depression or small tropical storm...too small to be anything exciting and too much wet to enjoy the pleasant breeze...it's a stuck in the house thing. It's really ashamed this has happened to the beaches this weekend...what a real money buster for so many hotels and restaurants.

[Stormcenter]

This loop nicely shows the feeder bands starting to feed into the
center of 90L from the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[Stormcenter]

I would have to say this looks pretty darn impressive on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Sean in New Orleans]

I would have to say this looks pretty darn impressive on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Looks like it's turning into a little storm as it approaches the coast. Waters are warm enough in the area. It's very small, but, the center has some convection and obvious low level circulation.

[dixiebreeze]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 22 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z FEB 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA IN GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 29.7N AND 88.7W
E. 23/1500Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[MGC]

That swirl just south of Mobile is likely an eddy, I don't think that is the main LLCC. I doubt the circulation has gotten that compact.....MGC

[dixiebreeze]

Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at 42040 as of
(11:50 pm CDT on 05/22/2009)

Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 13.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 74.3 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing but then I recall Hurricane Danny. It had a very compact tight circulation.
I'm not say thing is going to become a TS or hurricane but definitely a possible TD at least.

That swirl just south of Mobile is likely an eddy, I don't think that is the main LLCC. I doubt the circulation has gotten that compact.....MGC

[Cainer]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230555
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Stormcenter]

It's pretty evident now that this is the center we are now seeing on Mobile, AL radar.
Looks to be headed right in that general direction. It may make it onshore before recon ever gets a look at it.
I've got to admit I'm surprised.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230555
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like it could be pulling a Humberto as it nears the coast, although MUCH weaker. Pretty sure this will at least be named a TD and wouldn't be surprised to see a 40mph TS.

[OpieStorm]

I don't see the point in recon going out when it's going to be inland in less than 24 hours, and it's not going to bring anything more than rain and rough surf.

[Stormcenter]

I agree.....if they were going to send a recon out it should have been now.

I don't see the point in recon going out when it's going to be inland in less than 24 hours, and it's not going to bring anything more than rain and rough surf.

[JDawg12]

The only reason I see why they would fly out there is just to name it Ana already

[Chacor]

Recon isn't set to go until noon Eastern time, by which point it's probably useless. And they hardly need recon to name the storm.

[JDawg12]

I live about 20 miles from the coast in Mississippi and it really hadn't been that bad today. It was actually kinda nice with the E breeze blowing between 10-15 mph so other than naming the storm why waste the gas to go out there? I mean, we need the rain, and that's about all we're going to get anyways

[Chacor]

That's because they schedule recon a day in advance, and at that point a) it was still disorganised b) landfall still wasn't expected that quickly. They won't need to fly this mission in all likelihood, they won't find anything new. For all we know, they could fly out there and find a cold-core system.