ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

I think Fred got mad with those calling for "season cancelled" lol

[CrazyC83]

105 kt might be a bit conservative there...

[HURAKAN]

105 kt might be a bit conservative there...

Based on Fred's satellite appearance and its size, 115 knots could be a very sound argument for its current intensity.

[cycloneye]

Discussion:

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.

HURAKAN,do you know which were the other two majors?

Isaac, 2000

Code: Select all

Date: 21 SEP-4 OCT 2000
Hurricane ISAAC
ADV  LAT   LON       TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  11.50  -23.00 09/21/12Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  11.90  -24.50 09/21/18Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  12.30  -25.90 09/22/00Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  4  12.70  -27.20 09/22/06Z   40  1001 TROPICAL STORM
  5  13.10  -28.70 09/22/12Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  6  13.50  -30.10 09/22/18Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  7  13.70  -31.20 09/23/00Z   50   997 TROPICAL STORM
  8  13.90  -32.30 09/23/06Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM
  9  14.30  -33.20 09/23/12Z   70   984 HURRICANE-1
 10  14.60  -34.20 09/23/18Z   85   973 HURRICANE-2
 11  14.90  -35.00 09/24/00Z  105   960 HURRICANE-3


Frances, 1980

Code: Select all

Date: 6-21 SEP 1980
Hurricane FRANCES
ADV  LAT   LON       TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  12.50  -19.00 09/06/00Z   25  1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  12.50  -20.00 09/06/06Z   25  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  12.60  -21.00 09/06/12Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  4  12.70  -21.80 09/06/18Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  5  12.80  -22.50 09/07/00Z   40  1002 TROPICAL STORM
  6  12.90  -23.20 09/07/06Z   45   998 TROPICAL STORM
  7  13.00  -24.00 09/07/12Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM
  8  13.00  -24.80 09/07/18Z   60   990 TROPICAL STORM
  9  13.00  -25.60 09/08/00Z   65   986 HURRICANE-1
 10  13.00  -26.80 09/08/06Z   70   978 HURRICANE-1
 11  12.90  -28.00 09/08/12Z   80   970 HURRICANE-1
 12  12.80  -29.00 09/08/18Z   90   965 HURRICANE-2
 13  12.80  -29.80 09/09/00Z  100   960 HURRICANE-3


Thank you for posting the other two majors east of 35W.

[Frank2]

Well, only "bye" as it concerns any land areas (aside from the Canary Islands or Azores - I hear TWC might be sending Jim Cantore to one of them)...

LOL

P.S. Also, the models are as clustered as they were with Bill (and Bill was much further west), so it's pretty obvious that Fred is a squish-fish and will likely peak in the next 12-24 hours or so (if not already)...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

No problem Luis.

Great loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 071915.GIF

Fred continues to gain latitude

[HURAKAN]

That's tiny!

[wxman57]

A nice eye makes it easier to gauge movement. Using software in GARP, I"m measuring the following:

3hr: 320 deg. at 13 kts
6hr: 310 deg. at 11.5 kts

Appears to be accelerating to the NW now.

[HURAKAN]

A look into the eye:

[BigB0882]

Crazy, I thought this would struggly to even come a cat 1!

[HURAKAN]

Yes, Fred is small

[ozonepete]

A nice eye makes it easier to gauge movement. Using software in GARP, I"m measuring the following:

3hr: 320 deg. at 13 kts
6hr: 310 deg. at 11.5 kts

Appears to be accelerating to the NW now.

Interesting. The models had forecast a slowing down.

[kurtpage]

Anybody think this can get to a Cat-4???

[wxman57]

A nice eye makes it easier to gauge movement. Using software in GARP, I"m measuring the following:

3hr: 320 deg. at 13 kts
6hr: 310 deg. at 11.5 kts

Appears to be accelerating to the NW now.

Interesting. The models had forecast a slowing down.

It'll slow down. This acceleration is only temporary. I'm still measuring about 320 deg. at 13 kts for a 3hr movement.

[The Eye Wall]

A look into the eye:

Golly, the water sure looks calm in the last picture to say a Cat. 3 is over it!

[Shewtinstar]

Hi guys, I have no doubt that this is the wrong forum, but I don't know where else to put it (dang newbies). Anyway, I see a swirl with minor confection NE of the Caribbean. Does anyone else see it or is it my old age and wishful thinking?

[neospaceblue]

@Shewtinstar - No, I don't see anything.

Also, does Fred have a chance of reaching Category 5 tonight or tomorrow?

[TheEuropean]

Hi Shewtinstar, here is the right thread for you:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106482

Hi guys, I have no doubt that this is the wrong forum, but I don't know where else to put it (dang newbies). Anyway, I see a swirl with minor confection NE of the Caribbean. Does anyone else see it or is it my old age and wishful thinking?

[AdamFirst]

All that untapped water for Fred to feast on. He's the only one at the All-You-Can-Eat buffet, and he's taking advantage of it.

[HURAKAN]

Time is running off for Fred