ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[RL3AO]

Derek, can the models take in data from satellite images or are they unaware of dry air in the middle of the ocean thats well away from any radiosone sites?

[Derek Ortt]

satellite data is weighted differently in the different models.

I beleive it is weighted very lowly by GFS and much higher by NOGAPS

[jinftl]

Agree 100%....the subtle wording from the NHC is always something to look at....the language used is very different than 'no significant development is expected' or 'any development will be slow'.....

The NHC is even more bold in the accompanying discussion...

EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

Ana may already have been born!

AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.

Based on this advisory looks like it will be Ana tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Keep in mind that TD 2 is already SW of early progged track.

[jinftl]

well within the 'less interesting' margin of error though...probably a good time to remind folks that the black line (yellow per S2K graphics) is no more likely a location point than anywhere else in the 'cone' on the tracking map at the top of this page. Not to mention weak and/or developing systems often reorganize in different areas.....and just that can cause what would otherwise appear to be track shifts.

that said, your point is at the very least noted....be interesting to see if over time, there is a continual trend of the models be 'right-biased'. Wouldn't be the first time.

Keep in mind that TD 2 is already SW of early progged track.

[clfenwi]

ASCAT image referenced in the 11 PM discussion.

[Derek Ortt]

well within the 'less interesting' margin of error though...probably a good time to remind folks that the black line is no more likely a location point than anywhere else in the 'cone' on the tracking map at the top of this page. Not to mention weak and/or developing systems often reorganize in different areas.....and just that can cause what would otherwise appear to be track shifts.

that said, your point is at the very least noted....be interesting to see if over time, there is a continual trend of the models be 'right-biased'. Wouldn't be the first time.

Keep in mind that TD 2 is already SW of early progged track.

and keep in mind that the track can go OUTSIDE of the cone 1/3 of the time

[rrm]

derek any possibility this gets in the gulf

[RL3AO]

Keep in mind that TD 2 is already SW of early progged track.

Advisory #1: FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W

Advisory #4: CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.5W AT 12/0300Z

Times aren't matched, but its not SW of the first forecast.

[jinftl]

you did read his reply that 1/3 of the time the track is outside th 5-day cone?

The Gulf + or - 1500 miles....significant, right? We don't know what this will be in terms of strength and location in just a few days...how on earth can any area 7-14 days be considered a threat or off the hook. The Gulf is no more...or less...at risk than Miami, Norfolk, Cape Cod, Nova Scotia, Bermuda, the middle of the Atlantic

derek any possibility this gets in the gulf

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for our depression!

[Erick Atencio-Harris]

Guys, we have gotten Ana. This thing very well could be doing 40-45 KT right now IMO, and the deep convection is increasing at every moment

[Macrocane]

I think that if the trend continues a special advisory will be issued cause it looks very good, visible images would be so helpful at this time but we have to wait.

[cycloneye]

I think that if the trend continues a special advisory will be issued cause it looks very good, visible images would be so helpful at this time but we have to wait.

Its posible,if trend continues that may occur.

[clfenwi]

Absent an immediate threat to land and a smoking gun piece of irrefutable data, I don't see a special advisory being done.

However, given the current trend, it's significantly more plausible to me than ~1.5 hr ago that they'll initialize the 06Z models as a tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

I think that if the trend continues a special advisory will be issued cause it looks very good, visible images would be so helpful at this time but we have to wait.

Its posible,if trend continues that may occur.

If it was close to land, then it's possible. But it's so far, that I think everyone can wait 4 hours and 46 minutes!

[Macrocane]

If it was close to land, then it's possible. But it's so far, that I think everyone can wait 4 hours and 46 minutes!

Yes, maybe you're right but I'm too impatient at this time that I don't wanna wait

[RL3AO]

All they have is IR images. Quikscat missed. The last decent microwave pass was 9 hours ago and even then you have to combine two images because they each caught half of the storm. Even if it was a TD theres nothing concrete to support it right now.

[MWatkins]

I've been watching the 0Z gfs come in, and I am having a hard time determing what weakness is going to cause this WNW to NW movement with an increase in forward speed. In fact, more 594DM isobars are filling into the western Atlantic by day 5...

Plus, the current position estimate may be a little too far north. It is so hard to tell on IR 4 but we could see some overnight movement closer to 265 than 275.

And, by the way, what is the deal with the vaunted HWRF? Seems like this model has had a rightward bias since they rolled it out a few years ago. Perhaps it is overdoing the hi res vortex vs. the background. I'm no dynamic physical computer modeler, but jeepers it seems to be too right too early too often.

Sometimes, in these deep tropics situations the NOGAPS model does quite well. If I remember correctly, it nailed Frances when all of the other models were turing it time after time in their runs.

MW

[cycloneye]

They issued a special advisory at 6:00 AM EDT to classify it as TD.