WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[metenthusiast]

Multi-agency

[jinftl]

Think positive but folks need to remain vigilante and prepare to 'prepare for the worst'...hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Just thinking positive...Lets hope the computer model is right.

[cycloneye]

This is only a guess on my part as we wait for the 00 UTC and 0300z warnings from JMA and JTWC.

JMA is going to upgrade to Typhoon status and JTWC will increase the winds to at least 85kts.

[oaba09]

Just thinking positive...Lets hope the computer model is right.

Wish I could do that. But based on this image and other forecast models, thinking realistic is more feasible at the moment

I agree.....this big picture is, luzon will get hit........we just don't know exactly where.....

[metenthusiast]

This is only a guess on my part as we wait the 00 UTC and 0300z warnings from JMA and JTWC.

JMA is going to upgrade to Typhoon status and JTWC will increase the winds to at least 85kts.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's the difference between the 00z/0300z warnings from the other time frames? Are they more reliable and stable than the rest?

[oaba09]

This is only a guess on my part as we wait the 00 UTC and 0300z warnings from JMA and JTWC.

JMA is going to upgrade to Typhoon status and JTWC will increase the winds to at least 85kts.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's the difference between the 00z/0300z warnings from the other time frames? Are they more reliable and stable than the rest?

I don't think there's any difference.....I think those are just time when both agencies give their next update.....

[cycloneye]

This is only a guess on my part as we wait the 00 UTC and 0300z warnings from JMA and JTWC.

JMA is going to upgrade to Typhoon status and JTWC will increase the winds to at least 85kts.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's the difference between the 00z/0300z warnings from the other time frames? Are they more reliable and stable than the rest?

JMA uses 00 UTC as their times and JTWC uses 0300z but no big deal about the difference.

[metenthusiast]

I don't think there's any difference.....I think those are just time when both agencies give their next update.....

JMA uses 00 UTC as their times and JTWC uses 0300z but no big deal about the difference.

Ok, now I understand. Thanks guys!

[oaba09]

That eye is definitely forming now......

[metenthusiast]

There's a big difference between JTWC's and JMA's forecasts, in regards to the typhoon track. What's your opinion on this? I just wanted to know the general consensus on these two agencies. Not that neither track's going to do us good, but I'm more concerned with the JMA one. If that pushes through, Manila is in a lot of trouble. That track seems to be heading straight for it.

[oaba09]

There's a big difference between JTWC's and JMA's forecasts, in regards to the typhoon track. What's your opinion on this? I just wanted to know the general consensus on these two agencies. Not that neither track's going to do us good, but I'm more concerned with the JMA one. If that pushes through, Manila is in a lot of trouble. That track seems to be heading straight for it.

I think JMA is expecting for the STR to strengthen and "push" MIRINAE more southwards while JTWC seems to have a conservative track........I think the JMA track is more reliable right now(at least based on what I'm seeing at the sat loops)..

[metenthusiast]

There's a big difference between JTWC's and JMA's forecasts, in regards to the typhoon track. What's your opinion on this? I just wanted to know the general consensus on these two agencies. Not that neither track's going to do us good, but I'm more concerned with the JMA one. If that pushes through, Manila is in a lot of trouble. That track seems to be heading straight for it.

I think JMA is expecting for the STR to strengthen and "push" MIRINAE more southwards while JTWC seems to have a conservative track........I think the JMA track is more reliable right now(at least based on what I'm seeing at the sat loops)..

That's bad news indeed. Do you think we still have to wait for Friday's sat fixes before being certain whether it would follow JMA's track or not?

[oaba09]

There's a big difference between JTWC's and JMA's forecasts, in regards to the typhoon track. What's your opinion on this? I just wanted to know the general consensus on these two agencies. Not that neither track's going to do us good, but I'm more concerned with the JMA one. If that pushes through, Manila is in a lot of trouble. That track seems to be heading straight for it.

I think JMA is expecting for the STR to strengthen and "push" MIRINAE more southwards while JTWC seems to have a conservative track........I think the JMA track is more reliable right now(at least based on what I'm seeing at the sat loops)..

That's bad news indeed. Do you think we still have to wait for Friday's sat fixes before being certain whether it would follow JMA's track or not?

It's really hard to say......We do have a clearer idea now as to where the typhoon will hit......The best thing to do is prepare for every scenario....

[drdavisjr]

Good morning and good evening to all. Wow, I just woke up and all I can say is wow...looking worse than last night. The storm seems to be following JMA to me...

[metenthusiast]

It's really hard to say......We do have a clearer idea now as to where the typhoon will hit......The best thing to do is prepare for every scenario....

Well, I guess that's the best way for now. I'm watching sat loops from wunderground and I'm not sure how accurate it is, but to my untrained eye, it seems to be moving west and lower than their forecast track.

[metenthusiast]

Good morning and good evening to all. Wow, I just woke up and all I can say is wow...looking worse than last night. The storm seems to be following JMA to me...

Good morning! Looking worse indeed, but at least we're getting a much clearer picture of things to come...

[oaba09]

Good morning and good evening to all. Wow, I just woke up and all I can say is wow...looking worse than last night. The storm seems to be following JMA to me...

Good morning!

Exactly my thoughts....I think JMA got this one correct.....

[cycloneye]

JMA 00 UTC Warning=Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 28 October 2009
<Analyses at 28/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E132°50'(132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[oaba09]

JMA 00 UTC Warning=Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 28 October 2009
<Analyses at 28/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E132°50'(132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

Looks similar w/ JTWC now.........At least now we have a clearer picture

[breeze]

And, JMA upgraded it to typhoon - you were right, Luis.