WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

[metenthusiast]

It's really building up now

Looks like it, though it also seems to be a remnant of Mirinae... Doesn't have quite a definite spin yet on my observation...

Hi met. Though could see why you'd say it, this is not a remnant of Mirinae. It's another disturbance that formed along the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) that stretches east to west just north of the equator. Sometimes they break free and start moving west-northwest - that's how most of your typhoons develop.

BTW, looks to me like it's getting mid-level rotation now and some decent convection. The microwave satellites are showing some banding. At this point I'd say it has at least a 60-40 chance to develop. I checked and it's got low shear around and ahead of it, quite good mid level moisture, and good SSTs.

Thanks ozonepete! It's nice to know more about these weather systems everyday. Yeah, it seems more organized now than before and you could distinguish it spiral shape... It seems to be moving NW to my untrained eye...

[metenthusiast]

Its Upped to a Depression . My my the pacific ocean has churned up alot of storms this season...

La Nino .

Yup, I second that...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 15N 131E WNW 10 KT.

[StormingB81]

If it is gaining lat, does that mean the STR gone already?

The STR seems to be ALMOST gone based on the latest images that I have

WHere do you find these maps?

[metenthusiast]

If it is gaining lat, does that mean the STR gone already?

The STR seems to be ALMOST gone based on the latest images that I have

WHere do you find these maps?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP972009

[oaba09]

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911010600 16 129.8 20
200911010000 16 131.2 20
200910311800 14.6 132.3 15
200910311200 12.5 134.8 15
200910310600 12.5 135 15\

Moved westwards

[metenthusiast]

I don't know if I'm observing this right, but it seems to be organizing quite decently...

[oaba09]

moving west

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 129E WNW 15 KT

[ManilaTC]

Another one?? Grr...

[metenthusiast]

Not sure if my observation's right, but this baby must be carrying copious amount of rain... another wet week when and if it hits Luzon.

[stormcaster]

hi guys, as soon as i heard from the news that there's another possible TS i checked out the site at once,,, i let myself be dragged in the Halloween hype here coz i felt secured that mirinae is gone in PH... after reading your posts, im confident that we will be safe and hopefully northern luzon too... so... should taiwan and japan worry bout this? i guess its too early to tell ^^

[Infdidoll]

Oh crap...that's all I've got to say...Wish there was a prospected track out there for this. A typhoon or even a tropical storm is just about the last thing I need on my plate, right now.

We've had some serious wind gusts coming from the WNW, tonight...is there some kind of front moving in from that direction? My pathetically amateur eyes see something on radar, but I don't know what term you experts would use and if it would be enough to keep this thing at bay if it does decide to swing around this way. Please say yes? (haha)

[ricmood]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 17N 128E NW 15 KT.

[StormingB81]

I Wish JTWC wuld work or get a track from somewhere

[StormingB81]

Storm is looking good. Maybe a tropical storm before anyone has any warning on it sheesh

[ozonepete]

Oh crap...that's all I've got to say...Wish there was a prospected track out there for this. A typhoon or even a tropical storm is just about the last thing I need on my plate, right now.

We've had some serious wind gusts coming from the WNW, tonight...is there some kind of front moving in from that direction? My pathetically amateur eyes see something on radar, but I don't know what term you experts would use and if it would be enough to keep this thing at bay if it does decide to swing around this way. Please say yes? (haha)

Yes. An unusually cool air mass has moved in over SE Asia including your area. Besides the fact that sooner or later this system will ingest some of that air which will weaken it, the upper winds are shearing the thunderstorm tops off to the northeast and it looks like the shear will only get worse ahead of it. That will weaken it further. So although it looks good on satellite, its future doesn't look very good. It may breifly get fairly stromg but it has very rough conditions ahead of it.

[cycloneye]

Oh crap...that's all I've got to say...Wish there was a prospected track out there for this. A typhoon or even a tropical storm is just about the last thing I need on my plate, right now.

We've had some serious wind gusts coming from the WNW, tonight...is there some kind of front moving in from that direction? My pathetically amateur eyes see something on radar, but I don't know what term you experts would use and if it would be enough to keep this thing at bay if it does decide to swing around this way. Please say yes? (haha)

Yes. An unusually cool air mass has moved in over SE Asia including your area. Besides the fact that sooner or later this system will ingest some of that air which will weaken it, the upper winds are shearing the thunderstorm tops off to the northeast and it looks like the shear will only get worse ahead of it. That will weaken it further. So although it looks good on satellite, its future doesn't look very good. It may breifly get fairly stromg but it has very rough conditions ahead of it.

That may explain why JTWC,Pagasa and JMA haved not started to issue warnings and forecast tracks.

[P.K.]

18Z.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 17.1N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[cycloneye]

Things are starting to move in the warning department.JMa started warning and now JTWC issues a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

WTPN21 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8S 126,3E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVEC-
TION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN
FUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEING
ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) AND
WERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELP
TO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCC
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
COLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MADE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
QUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT
IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022200Z.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

Yeah, they have to follow this because, as I said earlier it may briefly strengthen and it could possibly make TS status before the really heavy shear comes. But you can tell by the way they worded the prog reasoning that it probably doesn't have much of a future. The thunderstorms will continue to get blown off to the north and east while the LLC moves west-northwest. If the shaved off LLC survives it still has cool dry ingestion to deal with. Still don't see much coming of this.