ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

Moving west at 270 degrees a tad slower 14kts.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

[KWT]

Yep and also interestingly you can see a front pretty far south which will develop a frontal low (that may even need watching for STS properties?) which should keep the weakness open and allow this one to head out to sea I suspect.

[wxman57]

If it doesn't develop and get north of the Caribbean, then it appears to be heading for the "zone of death" west of 60W.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS tracks weak TD to just north of Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

So it either heads north of the Caribbean into a very likely recurve or heads towards the zone of death?
Sounds like two decent options for the Caribbean!

[Aric Dunn]

So it either heads north of the Caribbean into a very likely recurve or heads towards the zone of death?
Sounds like two decent options for the Caribbean!

well zone of death.. if it does not develop.. if it is already a established system it should be fine .. also it is a very large system and they have a tendency to fair better in the eastern carrib. Ana was small and past 60 west and lost everything.. it all depends of how fast its moving.

actually its probably one of the larger circulations i have seen in a while..

[cycloneye]

Only to compare where Bill was almost at almost the same longitud the low center of 94L is.Bill was much more north at 13.4N-41.7W per 11 PM EDT advisory on August 16.

94L is at 10.6N-42.0W.

[Aric Dunn]

Only to compare where Bill was almost at almost the same longitud the low center of 94L is.Bill was much more north at 13.4N-41.7W per 11 PM EDT advisory on August 16.

94L is at 10.6N-42.0W.

Also bill was already a cyclone this is not yet and will stay farther south because of that.. once it begins to strengthen a more wnw turn will probably occur.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops 94L but not in a strong way.However,more important it tracks west just north of the Leewards,Virgin islands,Puerto Rico and Hispanola.Big ridge to the north.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[KWT]

Yep indeed Bill was already gaining latitude by that point...of course it could be the case that something develops further north then we are looking at but we shall see.

FWIW models are starting to back away from the weakness being forecasted between 144-192hrs aroun 70W which may bring the US into play if that continues even if it goes as north as the models expect.

[KWT]

Yep though the ridge is breaking down by the time this gets close to the Bahamas...however the ridge looks a good deal stronger on this run from the ECM, such a system would really need to be watched if that is correct.

[hurricanetrack]

The zone of death will not necessarily (did I even spell that right?) be that way as we get in to September. Ok, so it might not develop until the western Caribbean- and with all the troughing going on, might we begin to wonder if the GOM begins to come in to play like it did in September of 2002?

However, it is showing signs of waking up so maybe it will be a tropical cyclone before reaching the eastern Caribbean- if it does not gain too much latitude in the mean time. Always fascinating!

[Sanibel]

I wonder if we'll have another naked swirl bearing down on Florida?

[KWT]

I suspect if it does become a TC anytime soon its going to start picking up some decent latitude as all the models are suggesting. The way the models are starting to strengthen the ridge compared to other runs yesterday is somewhat interesting...

[Sanibel]

If the models are correct it will start lifting in latitude right away.

[jlauderdal]

I was wondering in the amateur ramblings of my head if the proximity to the ITCZ was still an inhibiting factor. So if I am understanding what is being said that is somewhat correct?

Right the itcz in a way steals the convergence..

or in another word blocks inflow. So yesterday all the convection was primarily associated with the broken itcz. there are still pieces of it withing the broad circulation but it is slowly breaking down. today however we have convection firing in areas where the itzc is not present

red lines showing left over itcz. run the loop at look and the flow on the south side if the boundary vs. the north side.

those red lines look nastier than the "system" itself

[GeneratorPower]

I wonder if we'll have another naked swirl bearing down on Florida?

I hope not. They are still recovering from the last one. They don't need this right now.

[cycloneye]

Look at that nice anticyclonic flow aloft.

[KWT]

It is looking better cycloneye, convection still developing at the time of day where typically you'd expect D-min to playing its hand. It may lift up a little more now its developing convection again.

[Sanibel]

Slightly better curvature.


See you in 24 hours.